2022 League Championship Playoffs Recap
American League
National League
1/1 correct thanks to Philadelphia
League Championship Round total – 2/2 which is three standard deviations above the mean
Divisional Round total – 1/4
Wildcard Round total – 3/4
Overall total – 6/10 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
World Series
Philadelphia Phillies (NL East Division #6 seed) vs. Houston Astros (AL West Division #1 seed)
Regular Season records: Philadelphia 87-75; Houston Astros 106-56
Head-to-Head matchups for 2022: Houston won two out of the three games played and outscored Philadelphia 13-5 in total runs.
Philadelphia Phillies Analysis
Phillies advanced to the World Series after beating San Diego in five games. Offense is on fire right now with most of the batting lineup (Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins). Philadelphia has a team batting average of 0.237, 31 BB, 16 HRs, 57 runs and 82 hits. Batters will have had a four day break between the NLCS and the World Series, which can slow down the momentum of a streaky hitting team (see the 2007 Colorado Rockies). Pitching rotation should be well rested and ready to go with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez. Bullpen has been quietly producing as the bridge to the ninth inning. Manager Rob Thomson has let this squad play with no stress and no expectations. That approach will continue for the entire series.
Houston Astros Analysis
Astros advanced to the World Series after sweeping the New York Yankees in four games. Houston has the deepest pitching staff, with three quality starters ready and available on short rest (Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr.). Closer Ryan Pressly has been unhittable this postseason. Astros postseason team ERA is 1.88, with 7 wins, 4 saves and 89 Ks. Deepest and best pitching depth in MLB. Have enough veteran leadership (Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve), and a young rookie (Jeremy Pena) who all show up on the biggest stage. OF Kyle Tucker’s defense continues to be a difference maker in every game.
Houston lost the 2019 and 2021 World Series to teams that had shutdown starting pitching (Washington Nationals) and a steady bullpen (Atlanta Braves). If the Phillies split the first two games on the road, this could be a memorable series, otherwise the Astros won’t break a sweat.
Prediction: Houston wins in six games due to deep pitching always beating good hitting
Same bat time, same bat channel in two weeks. I’ll review the results of the MLB World Series and turn my attention to the 2023 MLB season.