This article covers predictions for the First Four games of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (i.e. March Madness). Tournament time is right around the corner on 3/14/23 and that means the best playoff in all of sports is starting. Time to get into a daily and weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Kansas won the 2022 National Championship over North Carolina (72-69) in New Orleans, Louisiana. Jayhawks rallied from a 16 point deficit in the second half, to get head coach Bill Self, his second national championship (2008, 2022). The brackets are wide open in 2023 and the next three weeks will determine if Kansas repeats as champs, or if a new team ascends to the title throne in Houston, Texas on 4/3/23.
2022-2023 Season Recap
Weird regular season to say the least. Mike Krzyzewski retired as head coach at Duke and handed his whistle to Jon Scheyer. North Carolina started the season ranked #1, began to crater in late November 2022 and didn’t make the big dance in 2023. Four teams held the #1 ranking during the regular season (North Carolina, Houston Purdue, Alabama), but there was chaos in the Top 25 each week. Texas head coach Chris Beard was fired on 1/5/23. Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim retired on 3/10/23 after spending 47 years leading the Orange, including a national championship in 2003.
2023 First Four Games of March Madness
South Region – Southeast Missouri State (#16 seed) vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (#16 seed)
Current betting line – Texas A&M Corpus Christi favored by -3.5 points
Analysis: Redhawks are riding a four game winning streak and won the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. Finished the regular season with a losing record (15-16), before senior guard Chris Harris, got hot shooting the rock. Islanders have won twelve out of their last thirteen games. Regular season and tournament champions of the Southland Conference.
Prediction: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi uses their front court depth to advance with an 8+ point victory.
Midwest Region – Pittsburgh (#11 seed) vs. Mississippi State (#11 seed)
Current betting line – Mississippi State favored by -2.5 points
Analysis: Panthers took a step forward this season in the ACC, due to sweeping North Carolina and Syracuse. Beat Virginia (68-65) on 1/3/23 for their signature moment. Need senior guard Jamarius Burton and junior forward Blake Hinson to play big minutes, if Pittsburgh wants to make a run to the Sweet 16. Bulldogs started the season on fire at 11-0, due to an easy schedule. Stutter-stepped through the second half of the season at 10-12. Have two quality wins over TCU and Texas A&M.
Prediction: Most entertaining matchup of the First Four games. Pittsburgh will expose Mississippi State as a one man team (forward Tolu Smith) and win by 6+ points.
East Region – Fairleigh Dickinson (#16 seed) vs. Texas Southern (#16 seed)
Current betting line – no betting line listed
Analysis: Knights had an up and down season in the Northeast Conference, finishing second with a 19-15 record. Played 0.500 basketball the last month of the season, despite having two seniors starting in the back court (Demetre Roberts, Grant Singleton). Tigers are the only team in the Big Dance with a losing record (14-20). Played lights out for three straight games to win the SWAC tournament over Grambling (61-58). Texas Southern has four starters each averaging 10.0+ points per game and will continue to share the rock on each possession.
Prediction: The Cinderella slipper no longer fits for the Tigers, as Fairleigh Dickinson advances with a 10 point victory.
West Region – Nevada (#11 seed) vs. Arizona State (#11 seed)
Current betting line – Arizona State favored by -2.0 points
Analysis: Wolfpack finished 22-10 in the Mountain West Conference and are currently on a three game losing streak. Two of those losses were in OT to UNLV (69-67) and San Jose State (81-77). Backcourt of Jarod Lucas and Keenan Blackshear will give ASU fits during the entire game. Sun Devils stayed below the radar in the PAC-12 finishing at 22-12. Solid wins over Oregon State and USC in the PAC-12 tournament, have some experts thinking ASU will replicate the 2021 Final Four run of UCLA from the First Four games. This blogger isn’t on board with a deep tourney run yet, but head coach Bobby Hurley has experience in that department.
Prediction: If both teams are hitting three-point jump shots, this will be a score fest. Otherwise it’ll be a possession by possession game with tempo being a key factor. ASU grinds out a 3 point victory to jump start the PAC-12.
Same bat time, same bat channel in two days. I’ll review the results of the First Four games and try again in the First Round of the 2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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