This article covers predictions for the First Round games of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (i.e. March Madness). Tournament time is right around the corner on 3/16/23 and that means the best playoff in all of sports has reached the first round. Time to get into a daily and weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Kansas won the 2022 National Championship over North Carolina (72-69) in New Orleans, Louisiana. Jayhawks rallied from a 16 point deficit in the second half, to get head coach Bill Self, his second national championship (2008, 2022). The brackets are wide open in 2023 and the next three weeks will determine if Kansas repeats as champs, or if a new team ascends to the title throne in Houston, Texas on 4/3/23.
2022-2023 Season Recap
Weird regular season to say the least. Mike Krzyzewski retired as head coach at Duke and handed his whistle to Jon Scheyer. North Carolina started the season ranked #1, began to crater in late November 2022 and didn’t make the big dance in 2023. Four teams held the #1 ranking during the regular season (North Carolina, Houston Purdue, Alabama), but there was chaos in the Top 25 each week. Texas head coach Chris Beard was fired on 1/5/23. Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim retired on 3/10/23 after spending 47 years leading the Orange, including a national championship in 2003.
2023 First Four Picks
First Four (played on 3/14/23) – 2/2 thanks to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Pittsburgh
First Four (played on 3/15/23) – 2/2 thanks to Fairleigh Dickinson and Arizona State
Overall – 4/4 correct which is three standard deviations above the mean
2023 March Madness First Round Games on 3/16/23
South Region – West Virginia (#9 seed) vs. Maryland (#8 seed)
Current betting line – West Virginia favored by -3.0 points
Analysis: Mountaineers finished eighth in the Big 12 at 19-14. Had quality wins against TCU, Auburn, Iowa State, and Kansas State. Rebounded from a bad four game losing streak in early February 2023 to win four of their last six games. Terrapins finished sixth in the Big Ten at 21-12. Started the season at 8-0, but then ran into the Big Ten conference schedule and flamed out at 13-12 from early December 2022 to early March 2023. Senior guard Jahmir Young (16.1 PPG, 3.2 APG) will try to carry the Maryland offense on his back.
Prediction: #8 seed vs #9 seed games are incredibly hard to predict since both teams are usually mirror images of each other. Maryland played in a tougher conference from top to bottom and wins an ugly game by 5+ points.
South Region – Furman (#13 seed) vs. Virginia (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Virginia favored by -6.0 points
Analysis: Paladins are the real deal at 27-7, after winning the Southern Conference tournament championship over Chattanooga (88-79). Won the regular season title too and are riding a six game winning streak. Are a remarkable 17-2 since the calendar turned to 2023 and will be in this game for forty minutes. Cavaliers had a quiet season, finishing second in the ACC behind Miami at 25-7. Quality wins over Baylor and Illinois, but have an innate ability to lose close games. Will run their time consuming offensive possessions to slow the game down and grind out baskets.
Prediction: Furman will hang around until the final shot, but Virginia advances to the Second Round winning by 2 points.
South Region – Utah State (#10 seed) vs. Missouri (#7 seed)
Current betting line – Utah State favored by -1.0 point
Analysis: Aggies are typically thought of as a football school due to their consistent success in the Mountain West Conference (MWC). Had an impressive season at 26-8, despite losing the MWC championship game to San Diego State (62-57). Senior guard Steven Ashworth (16.3 PPG, 4.5 APG) will look for junior forward Taylor Funk (13.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG), on almost every possession. Tigers had a decent season at 24-9, but reviewing their schedule makes this blogger wonder if they still reside in the Big 12 or actually moved to the SEC (yes, its difficult to track this stuff). Swept Tennessee on the road in early February 2023 (86-85) and in the SEC tournament in early March 2023 (79-71).
Prediction: Tight matchup on paper and the betting line has been close all week. Time for the first upset of the 2023 brackets, with Utah State winning by 4 points and the experts will deep dive the MWC.
West Region – Howard (#16 seed) vs. Kansas (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Kansas favored by -22.0 points
Analysis: Bison have had a solid season at 22-12 and are on a five game winning streak. Won the MEAC Conference tournament over Norfolk State (65-64), and the regular season title too. Jayhawks start their national title defense in this game, despite getting blown out by Texas in the Big 12 championship game (76-56). Head coach Bill Self will be back on the bench for this matchup and hoping his squad can play with some consistent energy. Finished the season on a 9-2 game streak, but there are holes to exploit on this roster.
Prediction: Kansas will cruise to a 14+ point victory and then their bracket path will get much harder to navigate.
South Region – Texas A&M Corpus Christi (#16 seed) vs. Alabama (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Alabama favored by -24.0 points
Analysis: Winner of the First Four game gets to face the #1 overall seed in the Big Dance. No rest for the weary for the Islanders, after beating SE Missouri State on Tuesday night (75-71). Crimson Tide are typically a football powerhouse that is disguised as a basketball juggernaut this season. Will coast in this game, but remember that three of the starting five players are freshman and they are due for a let down in this tourney.
Prediction: Alabama coasts into the second round winning by 18+ points and won’t be pushed until the Sweet 16 arrives.
South Region – Charleston (#12 seed) vs. San Diego State (#5 seed)
Current betting line – San Diego State favored by -5.0 points
Analysis: Cougars are the most underrated double-digit seed team in the entire 2023 bracket, due to going 31-3 during the regular season. Had a twenty game winning streak from mid-November 2022 to late January 2023. Currently on a ten game winning streak and no stranger to the Big Dance, due to participating in 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2018. Aztecs are a hot team due to going 14-2 down the stretch and winning the MWC tourney over Utah State (62-57). Senior guard Matt Bradley (12.9 PPG, 2.1 APG) will need serious help from his teammates, or this will be a one and done run.
Prediction: Charleston advanced out of the First Round in 1997 and are due to do that again in 2023. Cougars win by 6 points and then things will get interesting in the South Region.
South Region – Princeton (#15 seed) vs. Arizona (#2 seed)
Current betting line – no betting line listed
Analysis: Tigers are 21-8 and riding a four game winning streak. Won the Ivy League tournament over Yale (74-65). Most basketball fans remember Princeton running a backdoor cut in the 1996 Big Dance, to eliminate UCLA during First Round action. Wildcats finished the regular season with a flourish at 13-3, and a PAC 12 Championship game win over regular season champ UCLA. Second year coach Tommy Floyd is slowly building a rock solid program in the Tucson desert, that badly needs to advance deep in this tourney to help the PAC-12’s reputation.
Prediction: Arizona shoots a lot of threes to open up their transition game and win easily by 17+ points.
West Region – Illinois (#9 seed) vs. Arkansas (#8 seed)
Current betting line – Arkansas favored by -2.0 points
Analysis: Fighting Illini had a ho-hum season going 20-12, and stumbling badly from early February to early March 2023 (4-6). Have quality wins over UCLA, Texas, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Never know which squad is going to show up for head coach Brad Underwood. Razorbacks were somewhat forgotten in a deep SEC this season. Are currently on a bad 5-6 run to close out the regular season. Head coach Eric Musselman is very passionate on the sideline, but this matchup might cause him to tear his hair out.
Prediction: Another hard #8 vs. #9 seed game to pick. Both teams have regressed down the stretch and the rosters are an enigma. Illinois pulls off a small upset winning by 5 points.
Midwest Region – Auburn (#9 seed) vs. Iowa (#8 seed)
Current betting line – Auburn favored by -1.0 points
Analysis: SEC vs. Big Ten matchup which is typically one sided in football, but will be a toss-up in basketball. Tigers finished seventh in the SEC and faded badly the last two months, going 3-7. Besides having Charles Barkley as an alumni, Auburn will rely on uber-talented junior forward Johni Broome (14.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG) to extend their season. Hawkeyes ended up in fifth in the Big Ten and faded during the last two months at 5-5. Both of these teams are a mirror image of each other. Quality wins over Iowa State and a sweep of Indiana.
Prediction: Auburn has more recent experience and success in the Big Dance since 2019. Sir Charles will be smiling after the Tigers advance with an 8 point victory.
East Region – Oral Roberts (#12 seed) vs. Duke (#5 seed)
Current betting line – Duke favored by -6.0 points
Analysis: Golden Eagles are another dark horse team with a double-digit seeding. Went 30-4 to win the Summit League championship. Haven’t lost a game since 1/9/23 against New Mexico (82-75), and are on a seventeen game winning streak. Advanced to the Sweet 16 in the 2021 tournament with upset wins over Ohio State and Florida. Blue Devils have regrouped under new head coach Jon Scheyer. Currently on a nine game winning streak that has frankly saved their season to get to 26-8. All of their offensive sets run through precocious freshman center, Kyle Filipowski (15.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG), which causes tempo and outside shooters to go cold. Will be a tight game for all forty minutes.
Prediction: Oral Roberts will hang around deep in the second half, but Duke finds a second gear on offense to win by 8 points.
Midwest Region – Colgate (#15 seed) vs. Texas (#2 seed)
Current betting line – Texas favored by -13.5 points
Analysis: Raiders had a memorable season winning the Patriot Conference at 26-8. Quality win over Syracuse on the road (80-68), and a bad road loss to Auburn (93-66). Head coach Matt Langel has led Colgate to three straight Patriot Conference titles, and is due to advance past the First Round, but it won’t be this game. Longhorns weathered the internal locker room storm, due to head coach Chris Beard being fired on 1/5/23. Won the Big 12 tournament by wiping Kansas (76-56). Talented roster that is led by a trio of guards (Marcus Carr, Sir’Jabari Rice, Tyrese Hunter). Interim head coach Rodney Terry has done a great job keeping Texas focused, but they are a powder keg that could explode. Tread lightly Longhorn fans.
Prediction: Texas will be on cruise control for a 16+ point win and then they’ll meet a familiar opponent in the Second Round (Texas A&M)..
West Region – Boise State (#10 seed) vs. Northwestern (#7 seed)
Current betting line – Northwestern favored by -1.5 points
Analysis: Broncos are making their ninth appearance in the Big Dance (1976, 1988, 1993, 1994, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2022, 2023). Finished third in the MWC with a 24-9 record. Two quality wins over Texas A&M and San Diego State. Wildcats are making their second tournament appearance (2017, 2023). Hard not to forget their opening weekend run in 2017, beating Vanderbilt by two points and then losing to eventual national championship runner-up Gonzaga by six points. Elaine from Seinfeld (Julia Louis-Dreyfus), was the Wildcats biggest fan in 2017 and should be near the bench for good luck.
Prediction: Despite losing four of their last five games, Northwestern bears down on defense to win a close game by 3 points
Midwest Region – Northern Kentucky (#16 seed) vs. Houston (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Houston favored by -18.0 points
Analysis: Norse are extremely happy to make the NCAA tournament after winning the Horizon League championship game over Cleveland State (63-61). That victory knocked Youngstown State out of the Big Dance. Cougars had a phenomenal season going 31-3, despite losing the American Athletic Conference championship game to Memphis (75-65). Was on a thirteen game winning streak prior to that loss. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has learned to leave text messaging to his assistant coaches, during his eight seasons at Houston. This is a scary good team that has the clearest path on paper to reach the Final Four.
Prediction: Houston will start fast and control this game from start to finish. Workmanlike 20+ point victory will get the Cougars warmed up.
East Region – Louisiana (#13 seed) vs. Tennessee (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Tennessee favored by -11.0 points
Analysis: Ragin’ Cajuns peaked at the right time during the Sun Belt Conference tournament, winning three straight games and the championship over South Alabama (71-66). Had an impressive ten game winning streak from early January to early February 2023. Keep an eye on junior forward Jordan Brown (19.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG), since he could be playing in the NBA in 2023-2024. Volunteers have been inconsistent this season finishing at 23-10. Huge regular season wins over Kansas, Maryland, Texas, Auburn, and Alabama. Due to an unexpected second round exit in 2022, senior guard Santiago Vescovi (12.9 PPG, 3.0 APG) will try to lead this diverse roster on a deep tourney run.
Prediction: Tennessee will hit their stride in the second half to win by 12+ points.
Midwest Region – Penn State (#10 seed) vs. Texas A&M (#7 seed)
Current betting line – Texas A&M favored by -3.0 points
Analysis: Intriguing matchup between the Big Ten and the SEC. Nittany Lions likely played their way into the Big Dance, due to advancing to the Big Ten Championship game and then losing to Purdue (67-65). Have quality wins over Illinois, Maryland and Indiana. Went 8-2 during the last month of the regular to be trending up at the right time. Aggies had a quiet 25-9 season, but only finished one game behind Alabama in the deep SEC. Quality wins over Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee, and Alabama shows that Texas A&M can adapt to their opponents playing style. Lineup looks small on paper, but this rosters loves to run in transition.
Prediction: Hard game to pick since both teams are trending up. Texas A&M will try not to look ahead to the Second Round and a potential matchup with Texas. Aggies win a physical game by 5 points.
West Region – UNC Asheville (#15 seed) vs. UCLA (#2 seed)
Current betting line – UCLA favored by -17.5 points
Analysis: Bulldogs have won eighteen out of their last nineteen games and won the Big South Conference with a 27-7 record. This blogger thought the only reasons to visit Asheville, North Carolina are to watch the Asheville Tourists play minor league baseball, and investigate a top notch craft brewery scene. Now there’s definitely three options with a solid Bulldogs basketball program. Bruins had a memorable season going 29-5 and winning the PAC-12 conference by four games over Arizona. UCLA’s on court dominance this season, enabled more college hoops fans to hear Bill Walton’s musings during late night television broadcasts. Hate to admit that guy’s weird stories and lack of professionalism is growing on me. Had two long winning streaks (14 games, 12 games), but need to get the roster healthy fast or they’ll be lucky to advance past the Sweet 16.
Prediction: UCLA will be focused from the opening tip and win easily by 21+ points.
Same bat time, same bat channel in two days. I’ll review the results of the First Round games and try again in the Second Round of the 2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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Been following the excitement with the Broncos and the CU Buffs, so I haven’t followed basketball much. But for the first round I am going with Virginia, Utah State, Kansas, Alabama, Arizona, and UCLA. Most of my choices are best on personal preferences.
Tough day for Virginia, Utah State and Arizona. Hopefully the second day of First Round games live up to the hype.