This article covers predictions for the Second Round games of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (i.e. March Madness). Tournament time is right around the corner on 3/18/23 and that means the best playoff in all of sports has reached the second round. Time to get into a daily and weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Kansas won the 2022 National Championship over North Carolina (72-69) in New Orleans, Louisiana. Jayhawks rallied from a 16 point deficit in the second half, to get head coach Bill Self, his second national championship (2008, 2022). The brackets are wide open in 2023 and the next three weeks will determine if Kansas repeats as champs, or if a new team ascends to the title throne in Houston, Texas on 4/3/23.
2022-2023 Season Recap
Weird regular season to say the least. Mike Krzyzewski retired as head coach at Duke and handed his whistle to Jon Scheyer. North Carolina started the season ranked #1, began to crater in late November 2022 and didn’t make the big dance in 2023. Four teams held the #1 ranking during the regular season (North Carolina, Houston Purdue, Alabama), but there was chaos in the Top 25 each week. Texas head coach Chris Beard was fired on 1/5/23. Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim retired on 3/10/23 after spending 47 years leading the Orange, including a national championship in 2003.
2023 First Round Picks
First Round (games played on 3/17/23) – 12/16 correct thanks to Marquette, UConn, Baylor, Xavier, Creighton, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, Miami, Kentucky, Kansas State, TCU and Indiana.
Overall – 12/16 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 Overall Picks
First Four – 4/4
First Round -22/32
Overall – 26/36 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 March Madness Second Round Games on 3/18/23
South Region – Furman (#13 seed) vs. San Diego State (#5 seed)
Current betting line – San Diego State favored by -5.5 points
Analysis: Paladins had their one shining moment in the First Round, beating Virginia in the final minute of play with a clutch three point basket (68-67). Forward Jalen Slawson (19 points, 10 rebounds) and guard Marcus Foster (14 points, 5 rebounds) played well against the Cavaliers. Can a team from the Southern Conference hang with a team from the Mountain West? You betcha they can hang. Aztecs had a tight win over Charleston in the First Round (63-57). Guard Michael Bradley (17 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists) was a one man show yet again. Bradley needs to get his teammates involved early in this game, or a #13 seed will be in the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Two outside shooting teams will try to get their second wind and advance to the Sweet 16. San Diego State will focus on rebounding in the second half to extend possessions and hang on for a 4 point win.
East Region – Duke (#5 seed) vs. Tennessee (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Duke favored by -3.5 points
Analysis: Now the Second Round is getting interesting. Duke coasted in the First Round against Oral Roberts (74-51). Guard Jeremy Roach (23 points) came out of hibernation and super-sub Dariq Whitehead (13 points, 4 rebounds), answered the bell in the First Round. A solid team effort will be needed to get to the Sweet 16. Volunteers squeaked by Louisiana (58-55) to move onto this matchup. Guards Jahmai Msshack (11 points, 3 assists) and Tyreke Key (12 points, 4 rebounds) ensured Tennessee would play another game. Now they need a gameplan focusing on no wasted possessions, rebounding at both ends of the court and transition baskets to keep up with Duke. Will be an entertaining game for forty minutes.
Prediction: Very physical game with numerous lead changes. Tennessee finds a way to milk a four point lead late in the game to win by 2 points.
West Region – Arkansas (#8 seed) vs. Kansas (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Kansas favored by -3.5 points
Analysis: Razorbacks rode an early lead into a workmanlike victory over Illinois in the First Round (77-67). Three guard offense (Anthony Black, Davonte Davis, Ricky Council IV) led the roster in scoring with 12.0+ points each. Nine player rotation is surprisingly efficient during high pressure elimination games. Jayhawks played another game without head coach Bill Self (health reasons), and responded with an easy 96-68 win over Howard University. All five starters scored 10.0+ points, and the entire roster had 22 assists and 44 rebounds. Kansas is clicking on all cylinders and ready to defend their national title.
Prediction: First half will be close and then Kansas starts to run their transition and top notch passing game to win by 10+ points.
South Region – Princeton (#15 seed) vs. Missouri (#7 seed)
Current betting line – Missouri favored by -6.5 points
Analysis: Ivy League vs SEC, let that unique matchup sink in for a few minutes and also realize both of these schools have the same mascot (Tigers). Princeton added to their First Round mystique from the 1989 and 1996 tournaments, with a remarkable win over Arizona (59-55). That victory was no fluke with Princeton holding Arizona scoreless for the last five minutes of the game, and responding with nine points to secure the second biggest win in school history. Will they have any gas left in the tank to move onto the Sweet 16?
Missouri had a steady game against Utah State in the First Round and won 76-65. Guard D’Moi Hodge (23 points) and guard Kobe Brown (19 points) led an offensive outburst that had four players score 10+ points each. Suddenly Missouri looks like a formidable opponent and they have a lucky draw in the brackets. Doug Smith and Anthony Peeler are cracking a cold beverage and enjoying this current tournament run.
Prediction: Princeton can’t keep up with Missouri’s fast break and the Tigers win easily by 12 points. SEC will be all over the Sweet 16.
Midwest Region – Auburn (#9 seed) vs. Houston (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Houston favored by -5.0 points
Analysis: Tigers showed patience and resiliency against Iowa to advance to the Second Round with a close 83-75 win. Auburn’s offense continued to adjust in the first half due to Iowa’s defensive sets, and they utilized solid high to low ball movement to get quality shots. Six players in an eleven player deep rotation scored 10+ points each. Charles Barkley will be very confident heading into his Saturday broadcasting job. Cougars stumbled and tripped their way to an uncomfortable 63-52 First Round win over Northern Kentucky. Injured guard Marcus Sasser was only able to play fourteen minutes in the tournament opener and needs his groin to heal quickly. Cougars are too deep and talented to not get to the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Good game for thirty minutes and then Houston’s athletic roster takes over in an 8 point win.
Midwest Region – Penn State (#10 seed) vs. Texas (#2 seed)
Current betting line – Texas favored by -5.5 points
Analysis: Nittany Lions showed that finishing second in the Big Ten tourney wasn’t a fluke, with a sound victory over Texas A&M in the First Round (76-59). Penn State can shoot the three-ball, rebound on every possession, and play stout defense. They will be a tough out in this tourney. Longhorns had a thorough win over Colgate in the First Round (81-61). Guard Sir’Jabari Rice came off the bench to score 23 points and three other players scored 10+ points each. A nine player rotation suddenly looks rock solid for a deep bracket run by a team with an interim coach.
Prediction: Texas wins a physical and close game by 3 points and then a solid Sweet 16 bracket will greet them.
West Region – Northwestern (#7 seed) vs. UCLA (#2 seed)
Current betting line – UCLA favored by -7.5 points
Analysis: Wildcats turned the calendar back to 2017 and beat Boise State (75-67) in the First Round. Four players scored 10+ points each in that game and focused on the defensive glass with 24 defensive rebounds. Just like Penn State, Northwestern will be a tough out due to their style of play. Bruins flexed their muscles in the First Round with a 86-53 thrashing of UNC Asheville. Five players scored 10+ points each and a revamped ten player rotation is letting key contributors get healthy for the Sweet 16. Head coach Mick Cronin needs some credit for being a top level elimination game strategist.
Prediction: UCLA keeps the pedal down and advances with a 12+ point win.
South Region – Maryland (#8 seed) vs. Alabama (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Alabama favored by -9.0 points
Analysis: Terrapins advanced to the Second Round with a tense win over West Virginia (67-65). Maryland trailed for most of the first half and buckled down on defense in the second half. Forward Julian Reese (17 points, 9 rebounds) had a memorable game. Guard Hakim Hart (15 points, 4 assists) helped run the offense with high precision in the second half. Crimson Tide made quick work of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the First Round (96-75). Scary statistic from that game is regular season leading scorer Brandon Miller went scoreless. Five other players scored in double digits and the roster had 48 rebounds and 21 assists. Just a matter of time until Alabama shows why they are the overall #1 seed in the Big Dance.
Prediction: Alabama won’t be up 20 points at halftime, but they pull away in the second half for a 15+ point win.
Same bat time, same bat channel in four days. I’ll review the results of the Second Round games and try again in the Sweet 16 Round of the 2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
Want to find this beer near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.
Tough couple rounds, especially for someone as ignorant as me!!! Good luck over the weekend…
Brackets are wide open this year. Enjoy the madness!