This article covers predictions for the Second Round games of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (i.e. March Madness). Tournament time is right around the corner on 3/19/23 and that means the best playoff in all of sports has reached the second round. Time to get into a daily and weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Kansas won the 2022 National Championship over North Carolina (72-69) in New Orleans, Louisiana. Jayhawks rallied from a 16 point deficit in the second half, to get head coach Bill Self, his second national championship (2008, 2022). The brackets are wide open in 2023 and the next three weeks will determine if Kansas repeats as champs, or if a new team ascends to the title throne in Houston, Texas on 4/3/23.
2022-2023 Season Recap
Weird regular season to say the least. Mike Krzyzewski retired as head coach at Duke and handed his whistle to Jon Scheyer. North Carolina started the season ranked #1, began to crater in late November 2022 and didn’t make the big dance in 2023. Four teams held the #1 ranking during the regular season (North Carolina, Houston Purdue, Alabama), but there was chaos in the Top 25 each week. Texas head coach Chris Beard was fired on 1/5/23. Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim retired on 3/10/23 after spending 47 years leading the Orange, including a national championship in 2003.
2023 Second Round Picks
Second Round (games played on 3/18/23) – 6/8 correct thanks to San Diego State, Tennessee, Houston, Texas, UCLA and Alabama
Overall – 6/8 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 Overall Picks
First Four – 4/4
First Round -22/32
Second Round – 6/8
Overall – 32/44 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 March Madness Second Round Games on 3/19/23
Midwest Region – Pittsburgh (#11 seed) vs. Xavier (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Xavier favored by -5.5 points
Analysis: Panthers were impressive in their First Round victory over Iowa State (59-41). Guard Nelly Cummings has been consistent in the First Four round (13 points) and First Round (15 points). Game planning has shifted to team rebounding (28 and 39 rebounds in the Big Dance) and limiting turnovers. Pittsburgh will be a tough out due to their physical and smart style of play. Musketeers literally sleep walked through their First Round game against Kennesaw State and barely advanced (72-67). Head coach Sean Miller stated after the win that “he wasn’t quite sure what happened in the last three minutes of that game to come out on top.” This is why Miller struggles in the Big Dance, he doesn’t realize the stage his team is playing on.
Prediction: Battle of front courts will come down to foul shots, possessions and limiting turnovers. Xavier finds a way to advance yet again by 2 points.
East Region – Kentucky (#6 seed) vs. Kansas State (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Kentucky favored by -2.0 points
Analysis: Incredibly hard game to pick due to the history of both programs. Kentucky grinded out a win over Providence in the First Round (61-53). Guard Antonio Reeves (22 points) and forward Jacob Toppin (17 points) carried the load on Friday night. Nine man rotation will have to contribute in all phases of the game to keep Kentucky close in this game. Kansas State slowly wore down Montana State in the second half, to advance with an efficient win (77-65). Four players scored 10+ points each in the first round, and their seven-to-eight man rotation can thrive during up-tempo games. First year head coach Jerome Tang looks like a brilliant hire for the Kansas State fan base.
Prediction: No matter what, the Wildcats will be advancing to the Sweet 16, since both programs have the same mascot. Fast break game that will come down to solid guard play and maximizing possessions. Kansas State moves on by 4 points due to a deeper roster.
East Region – Michigan State (#7 seed) vs. Marquette (#2 seed)
Current betting line – Marquette favored by -3.0 points
Analysis: Spartans looked like a battle tested and tournament ready team in their First Round win over USC (72-62). When head coach Tom Izzo smashes a clipboard during a timeout, his players listen and respond with better play on the court. Seven player rotation will have to lock in on defense and play their best game of the season to keep up with Marquette. Golden Eagles looked sharp in the First Round, easily beating Vermont (78-61). Five players scored 10+ points each and the solid eight player rotation each played 18+ minutes. Marquette is starting to roll and they’ll get a taste of Big Ten defensive basketball.
Prediction: Instant classic game due to numerous lead changes and possibly overtime. Marquette wins a close game by 3 points.
West Region – Saint Mary’s (#5 seed) vs. UConn (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Connecticut favored by -3.5 points
Analysis: Intriguing matchup between the WCC and Big East. Gaels slipped past a trendy upset pick in the First Round, VCU (63-51). Guard Alex Ducas (17 points) and center Mitchell Saxen (17 points) led the offense. Total team defensive effort held VCU to 36.7% FG shooting, but that statistic will need to be -5% lower to have a chance against Connecticut. Huskies ran a clinic on Iona in the First Round (87-63) and are just getting warmed up. Junior forward Adama Sanogo had a career game with 28 points and 13 rebounds. Roster almost had a perfect statistical game with 45 rebounds and 24 assists. Connecticut bandwagon is starting to fill up.
Prediction: Connecticut plays their second straight team game and win by 9+ points.
South Region – Creighton (#6 seed) vs. Baylor (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Baylor favored by -1.5 points
Analysis: Now this one is going to be a fun matchup to watch between the Big East and Big 12. Bluejays beat a spunky NC State team in the First Round (72-63) to move onto this game. Creighton loves the three-ball, which typically dooms teams that suddenly go cold behind the arc. Center Ryan Kalkbrenner had a monster game with 31 points and 7 rebounds. He’ll need more teammates to help carry the offensive load against the stout Bears defense. Baylor cruised past UCSB in the First Round (74-56). Gameplan focused on defensive rebounds (22) and steals (5). Nine player deep rotation will be problematic for Creighton to keep pace with.
Prediction: Want to flip a coin to pick a winner, but Baylor will exert their physical will late in the second half to win by 5 points.
East Region – Fairleigh Dickinson (#16 seed) vs. Florida Atlantic (#9 seed)
Current betting line – Florida Atlantic favored by -12.5 points
Analysis: Which team will have their Cinderella slipper crack first? Knights have the signature moment of this tournament with a huge upset of #1 seed Purdue (63-58). Fairleigh Dickinson became the second #16 seed to beat a #1 seed in tournament history, due to controlling the game on offense and playing hard nosed defense. Led Purdue for most of the game and their head coach Tobin Anderson, is a breath of fresh air and passion that only March Madness can reveal. Owls won a tight game against Memphis (66-65), highlighted by four players who scored 10+ points each. Run a true nine man rotation with each player having significant playing time (11+ minutes). Will be a barn burner for 40 minutes.
Prediction: Hard game to pick with the feel good story of FDU. Can’t flip a coin, so this blogger will throw a dart and pick Florida Atlantic to advance by 3 points.
Midwest Region – Miami (#5 seed) vs. Indiana (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Indiana favored by -1.5 points
Analysis: Two underrated head coaches (Mike Woodson, Jim Larranaga) will match wits in a game that should have plenty of twists and turns. Hurricanes looked dead in the water late in their First Round game against Drake, until they rallied late to win 63-56. Just win and advance, that coaching philosophy still works in the Big Dance. Hoosiers showed off their forward tandem of Trayce Jackson-Davis (24 points) and Race Thompson (20 points) in beating Kent State (71-60). Indiana focused on hitting the boards (39 rebounds) and shooting lights out at 46.8%. This will be an offensive shootout, with short spurts of defense.
Prediction: Larranaga always seems to advance teams that shouldn’t, but the Hoosiers find a way to win by 5+ points and carry the Big Ten flag for another week.
West Region – TCU (#6 seed) vs. Gonzaga (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Gonzaga favored by -4.5 points
Analysis: Tasty matchup to close out the first week of the 2023 Big Dance. Horned Frogs used a ton of energy to nip Arizona State in the First Round (72-70). Guard Mike Miles Jr., forward Chuck O’Bannon Jr., and forward JaKobe Coles were a three man wrecking crew, due to scoring 52 points. Will take a concentrated team effort to keep up with the efficient Gonzaga offense. Bulldogs had to work more than expected, to beat Grand Canyon (82-70) in the First Round. Forward Drew Timme (21 points) and guard Julian Strawther (28 points) will continue to run an up tempo offense, that feasts on transition baskets. Can an eight man rotation find enough defensive intensity to hang tough in a possession by possession game? Time will tell.
Prediction: Bumpy game that won’t have a normal flow to it for long stretches of time. Gonzaga wins by 3+ points and completes a tough West bracket in the Sweet 16.
Same bat time, same bat channel in four days. I’ll review the results of the Second Round games and try again in the Sweet 16 Round of the 2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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My selections have been losers, should have read this blog before selecting teams. This blog is better than most newspapers.
One game prediction at a time. Lots of March Madness left.