This article covers predictions for the Sweet 16 Round games of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (i.e. March Madness). Tournament time is right around the corner on 3/23/23 and that means the best playoff in all of sports has reached the Sweet 16 round. Time to get into a daily and weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Kansas won the 2022 National Championship over North Carolina (72-69) in New Orleans, Louisiana. Jayhawks rallied from a 16 point deficit in the second half, to get head coach Bill Self, his second national championship (2008, 2022). The brackets are wide open in 2023 and the next three weeks will determine if Kansas repeats as champs, or if a new team ascends to the title throne in Houston, Texas on 4/3/23.
2022-2023 Season Recap
Weird regular season to say the least. Mike Krzyzewski retired as head coach at Duke and handed his whistle to Jon Scheyer. North Carolina started the season ranked #1, began to crater in late November 2022 and didn’t make the big dance in 2023. Four teams held the #1 ranking during the regular season (North Carolina, Houston, Purdue, Alabama), but there was chaos in the Top 25 each week. Texas head coach Chris Beard was fired on 1/5/23. Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim retired on 3/10/23 after spending 47 years leading the Orange, including a national championship in 2003.
2023 Second Round Picks
Second Round (games played on 3/19/23) – 5/8 correct thanks to Gonzaga, UConn, Xavier, Kansas State, and Florida Atlantic
Overall – 11/16 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 Overall Picks
First Four – 4/4
First Round -22/32
Second Round – 11/16
Overall – 37/52 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 March Madness Sweet 16 Games on 3/23/23
East Region – Michigan State (#7 seed) vs. Kansas State (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Michigan State favored by -2.0 points
Analysis: Spartans played a complete team game in their First Round win over USC (72-62). Took their defensive effort up a notch in the Second Round, and hung on for a close victory over Marquette (69-60). This is the fifteenth time Tom Izzo has coached Michigan State to the Sweet 16. Trying to reach his eleventh trip to the Elite 8. If guard Tyson Walker limits turnovers, forward Joey Hauser continues to be the hot hand, and center Mady Sissoko blocks key shots, the Spartans will be in this game.
Wildcats found another gear in the second half of their Second Round victory over Kentucky (75-69). Senior guard Markquis Nowell has run the Kansas State offense almost to perfection (22.0 PPG, 11.5 APG in the Big Dance). Forwards Keyonte Johnson and Nae’Qwan Tomlin’s energy and rebounding lifts this squad up to an elite tier. This matchup will clearly show if head coach Jerome Tang can match wits with Izzo. Bring the popcorn when watching this game.
Prediction: Will be close for forty minutes. Talking heads will over emphasize the New York City homecoming for Tyson Walker and Markquis Nowell. Spartans prefer getting an early lead and then holding on with defense. Wildcats relish getting their running legs late in the first half and then executing offensive sets in the second half. Air tight game and Kansas State’s front court is the difference in a 4 point win.
West Region – Arkansas (#8 seed) vs. UConn (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Connecticut favored by -4.0 points
Analysis: Buckle your seatbelts, this could be a frenetically paced game. Razorbacks upset defending champion Kansas in the Second Round (72-71). Head coach Eric Musselman has his squad in the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season (2021, 2022, 2023). Hoping he doesn’t channel Brandi Chastain again, if Arkansas continues to advance in this tournament. Clutch play by guards Davonte Davis (20.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and Ricky Council IV (19.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG), has this squad ready to play any team left.
Huskies were dominant in their First Round win over Iona (87-63) and Second Round win over Saint Mary’s (70-55). Head coach Dan Hurley has lit a perfectly timed fire under star forward Adama Sanogo (26.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG). This roster is playing with a ton of confidence right now and can’t look past this game. Hopefully Bill Murray continues to be a good luck charm for UConn when he attends their tourney games. Helps that his son (Luke Murray) is an assistant coach working hard for Hurley.
Prediction: Could be a score fest for the first twenty minutes and then it will turn into a possession game. Connecticut is still flying under the radar and they win by 6+ points, setting up an epic West Regional Final.
East Region – Florida Atlantic (#9 seed) vs. Tennessee (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Tennessee favored by -5.0 points
Analysis: Owls took the Cinderella slipper from Fairleigh Dickinson in a Second Round victory (78-70). The television announcers will now pair Florida Atlantic and Princeton as the bracket busters of this Sweet 16. Florida Atlantic has cobbled together an eight game winning, streak. Pales in comparison to their twenty game winning streak from 11/14/22 to 1/28/23. Despite a last second dustup in their victory over FDU, this roster is taking Bill Pulman’s quote from Independence Day. “We will not go quietly into the night.”
Volunteers took out some frustration, with an impressive and physical win over Duke in the Second Round (65-52). Head coach Rick Barnes has Tennessee focused on playing with a chip on their shoulder. Barnes hasn’t been back to the Final Four as a head coach since 2003 (with Texas). Will continue to give big minutes to senior forward Olivier Nkamhoua (27 points, 5 rebounds in the Second Round). Senior guard Santiago Vescovi has been relatively quiet in the Big Dance, but is due for a breakout performance.
Prediction: Florida Atlantic will confuse Tennessee during the first five minutes of this game, due to shooting every three-pointer that is open. Volunteers will take that jab and then settle in with their physical game up front. Only throw away game on Thursday night (3/23/23), as Tennessee advances easily with a 10+ point win.
West Region – Gonzaga (#3 seed) vs. UCLA (#2 seed)
Current betting line – UCLA favored by -1.5 points
Analysis: Rematch of the epic 2021 Final Four game, won by Gonzaga at the buzzer in overtime (93-90). Also played early in the 2021-2022 regular season on 11/28/21, with Gonzaga winning easily 83-63. Times have changed in 2023, with the Bulldogs relying on two forwards (Drew Timme, Anton Watson) and one guard (Julian Strawther) to carry the offensive load. This blogger has watched a significant amount of Gonzaga games over the past decade, and can’t describe their current offense. Seems as if they throw the ball into the paint, run a play when they feel like it, and then crash the glass. There’s no ebb or flow to it and doesn’t look like a game plan. Reminds me of playing 7th-8th grade basketball in PE class.
Bruins have gotten healthy since the PAC-12 conference tournament and appear to be running smooth on all cylinders. Blew out UNC Asheville in the First Round (86-53). Had a gut check win over Northwestern in the Second Round (68-63). UCLA will go as far as their big trio of guards (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Amari Bailey, Tyger Campbell) can carry them. I’m not a Bob Marley fan, but Campbell is seriously pulling off the look-a-like hair contest in a big way. Will need to focus on rebounding at both ends of the court, or their lack of height will play right into Gonzaga’s hands.
Prediction: Gonzaga leads the historical series 5-2, but UCLA is due to win a game. Team speed and lethal three point shooting key a tight 2 point win for the Bruins.
Same bat time, same bat channel in two days. I’ll review the results of the Sweet 16 Round games and try again in the Elite 8 Round of the 2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
Want to find this beer near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.
Just got to go with MSU against Kansas State for mostly personal reasons.
Epic game between Michigan State and Kansas State showed how cool March Madness is every year.