This article covers predictions for the Sweet 16 Round games of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (i.e. March Madness). Tournament time is right around the corner on 3/24/23 and that means the best playoff in all of sports has reached the Sweet 16 round. Time to get into a daily and weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Kansas won the 2022 National Championship over North Carolina (72-69) in New Orleans, Louisiana. Jayhawks rallied from a 16 point deficit in the second half, to get head coach Bill Self, his second national championship (2008, 2022). The brackets are wide open in 2023 and the next three weeks will determine if Kansas repeats as champs, or if a new team ascends to the title throne in Houston, Texas on 4/3/23.
2022-2023 Season Recap
Weird regular season to say the least. Mike Krzyzewski retired as head coach at Duke and handed his whistle to Jon Scheyer. North Carolina started the season ranked #1, began to crater in late November 2022 and didn’t make the big dance in 2023. Four teams held the #1 ranking during the regular season (North Carolina, Houston, Purdue, Alabama), but there was chaos in the Top 25 each week. Texas head coach Chris Beard was fired on 1/5/23. Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim retired on 3/10/23 after spending 47 years leading the Orange, including a national championship in 2003.
2023 Sweet 16 Round Picks
Sweet 16 Round (games played on 3/23/23) – 2/4 correct thanks to Kansas State and Connecticut
2023 Overall Picks
First Four – 4/4
First Round -22/32
Second Round – 11/16
Sweet 16 Round – 2/4
Overall – 39/56 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 March Madness Sweet 16 Games on 3/24/23
South Region – San Diego State (#5 seed) vs. Alabama (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Alabama favored by -7.5 points
Analysis: Aztecs had a relatively easy path to the Sweet 16 with a First Round win over Charleston (63-57) and a Second Round victory over Furman (75-52). Trio of guards (Matt Bradley, Micah Parrish, Lamont Butler) continue to lead the offense. Game planning has focused on hitting the glass (40.5 RPG) and finding the open man (15.0 APG) in the Big Dance. Not sure if SDSU has the size and speed to keep up with a deep and talented Alabama squad.
Crimson Tide didn’t break a sweat in the First Round, beating Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in a romp (96-75). Followed that up with a clinical effort in dispatching Maryland in the Second Round (73-51). Still have the easiest path to get to the Final Four. Regular season leading scorer Brandon Miller, bounced back in the Second Round with 19 points and 7 rebounds. Forward Nick Pringle and guard Javon Quinerly continue to provide big minutes, points and rebounds to give the starters a breather. Get ready for a football school to be in the basketball semi-finals.
Prediction: Alabama continues to play on a mission and wins by 10+ points.
Midwest Region – Miami (#5 seed) vs. Houston (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Houston favored by -7.5 points
Analysis: Hurricanes had a wake up call against Drake in the First Round and advanced with a tight 63-56 victory. Head coach Jim Larranga motivated his roster to keep the gas pedal down in the Second Round, and they responded with a solid win over Indiana (85-69). Have a sneaky three headed monster offense, with guard Isaiah Wong, guard Nijel Pack, and forward Norchad Omier. Going to be a tall order asking an overworked eight man roster, to keep up with the lightning fast Cougars for forty minutes.
Houston had their post season signature moment in the Second Round against Auburn. Trailing 41-31 at halftime, the Cougars got mad and played their best half of basketball in 2023. Outscored the Tigers 50-23 in the second half, to easily win the game (81-64). Head coach Kelvin Sampson now has star guard Marcus Sasser back at 100% health. Sasser scored 22 points and logged 31 minutes of playing time in the Second Round. Short seven man rotation can fill up the basket in a hurry. 1982-1983 Phi Slama Jama squad has to be following this team closely.
Prediction: Should be closer on the scoreboard, but Houston covers the point spread and wins by 8 points.
South Region – Princeton (#15 seed) vs. Creighton (#6 seed)
Current betting line – Creighton favored by -9.5 points
Analysis: Hard to call Princeton a Cinderella story after their Second Round demolition of Missouri (78-63). Head coach Mitch Anderson has pushed all of the correct buttons, to get the Tigers fan base to move past their iconic 1996 tourney win over UCLA. Are on a current eight game winning streak, after playing giant slayer against Arizona and Missouri. Forward Tosan Evbuomwan (12.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and guard Ryan Langborg (15.0 PPG, 3.0 APG) will continue to pace the offense and grind out baskets. Four starters to log big minutes and three super substitutions will need to fill in all the gaps, if this fantasy story is going to continue on Sunday.
Bluejays beat Baylor in the Second Round (85-76), due to getting a big lead at halftime and then trading baskets in the second half. Sophomore guard Ryan Nembhard had the game of his life (30 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists). Junior center Ryan Kalkbrenner (20.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) is trending up, as the Big Dance stage continues to get bigger with each game. Head coach Greg McDermott will now get some media attention as a potential candidate for job openings in 2023. Creighton has come a long ways, since losing the 2022 Maui Invitational Championship game to Arizona (81-79) on 11/28/22. Adapt and advance is the new motto of this team.
Prediction: Creighton will play an efficient offensive gameplan and win by 12+ points.
Midwest Region – Xavier (#3 seed) vs. Texas (#2 seed)
Current betting line – Texas favored by -4.0 points
Analysis: Hardest game to analyze and pick in the Sweet 16. Xavier showed up and showed out in their win over Pittsburgh in the Second Round (84-73). Forward Jack Nunge (14.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and forward Jerome Hunter (19.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG), own the lane and glass. Need the backcourt of Adam Kunkel and Colby Jones, to take care of the rock and make solid entry passes. Head coach Sean Miller is comfortable during his second tenure with the Musketeers, and is trying to reach the Elite Eight for the fifth time.
Longhorns have been playing footloose and fancy free in this tourney. Cruised against Colgate in the First Round (81-61), and then had to get physical in the Second Round over Penn State (71-66). Entire roster is contributing at key times on both ends of the court. Forward Dylan Disu is oozing confidence right now (22.5 PPG, 10 RPG). Guard Sir’Jabari Rice needs to keep his playing minutes up, turnovers down, and feed the hot hand. Forward Timmy Allen (6.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG) is the glue guy. Sky is the limit if Texas continues to stay in the moment.
Prediction: Will be a back and forth game for forty minutes. Really want to pick Xavier, but Texas has more willpower, team grit and wins by 3 points.
Same bat time, same bat channel in two days. I’ll review the results of the Sweet 16 Round games and try again in the Elite 8 Round of the 2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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I need to listen to this guy. He knows what he is talking about. My selections won’t be in the Final Four.
Brackets just blew up with no #1 seeds advancing to the Elite 8, for the first time in NCAA tournament history. Embrace the chaos of March Madness.