2023 NHL Round 1 Playoff Predictions

This article covers eight predicted NHL Stanley Cup Round 1 playoff series to be played during 4/17-4/30/23. Four series are dropping the puck on 4/17/23 and that means the NHL Round 1 playoffs are officially starting. Time to start a bi-weekly cadence of highlighting the best series to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2023, is trying to determine if the Colorado Avalanche are on their way to a repeat championship or if there are any teams that want the Stanley Cup more.

2022-2023 Regular Season Recap

Eastern Division

Was a beast this season with all playoff teams having an average record of 50-24-8 and 108 points. The eight playoff teams knew they were going to advance to the post season at the All-Star break, but seeding had to be figured out during the final week of the season. Balanced matchups with four teams advancing from the Metropolitan Division and four teams from the Atlantic Division.

Western Division

Was competitive on a daily basis into the final week of the season. All playoff teams have an average record of 48-25-9 and 105 points. Final seeding wasn’t determined until the last day of the regular season on 4/14/23. Intriguing matchups with four teams advancing from the Central Division and four teams from the Pacific Division.

Eastern Conference Round 1 Playoff Series

New York Islanders (Metropolitan Division Wildcard #1) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (Metropolitan Division #1)

Regular Season records: New York Islanders 42-31-9, 93 points; Carolina 52-21-9, 113 points

Head-to-Head matchups for 2022-2023: Carolina won three out of four games and outscored the Islanders 12-9 in total goals.

Islanders went 11-7 during the last six weeks of the regular season, to grab a wildcard slot for first year head coach Lane Lambert. Rely on forwards Brock Nelson (36 goals, 39 assists) and Anders Lee (28 goals, 22 assists) to carry the offense. Entire squad will welcome a healthy Matthew Barzal back to the first line. New York will lean heavily on goalie Ilya Sorokin (31 wins, 2.34 GAA), to keep games close and bail out his defensemen. Can the Isles have a deep playoff run to match the 2020 and 2021 post seasons? Time will tell.

Hurricanes have the coolest home uniform kit in the entire NHL. Didn’t win a road game during the 2022 NHL playoffs, which backfired badly against the New York Rangers in the second round. Led by centers Martin Necas (28 goals, 43 assists) and Sebastian Aho (36 goals, 31 assists). Off-season acquisition of defenseman Brent Burns (18 goals, 43 assists), balanced out the defensive corps. Achilles heel is using three goalies (Frederick Andersen, Antti Raanta, Pyotr Kochetkov) to get through the regular season. Need one of those guys to step up and quickly become “the man.”

Prediction: Too much team speed and roster depth has Carolina advancing to the second round in five games.

Florida Panthers (Atlantic Division Wildcard #2) vs. Boston Bruins (Atlantic Division #1)

Regular Season records: Florida 42-32-8, 92 points; Boston 65-12-5, 135 points

Head-to-Head matchups in 2022-2023: Teams split four games (2-2) and Boston outscored Florida 17-15 in total goals

First year head coach Paul Maurice guided the Panthers back into the playoffs, due to going 12-8 during the last two months of the regular season. Off-season trade acquisition Matthew Tkachuk (40 goals, 69 assists), had an MVP caliber season on the stat sheet. Hopefully he doesn’t emulate his dad during postseason press conferences. Centers Aleksander Barkov (23 goals, 55 assists) and Carter Verhaeghe (42 goals, 31 assists) can score goals in bunches. Need goalie Sergei Bobrovsky (3.07 GAA) to turn back the clock and find a consistent playing groove.

Bruins set the NHL record for regular season wins with 65 and points with 135. There are no holes in this roster. Led by the big three of David Pastrnak (61 goals, 52 assists), Brad Marchand (21 goals, 46 assists), and Patrice Bergeron (27 goals, 31 assists). Defense goes into lockdown mode with Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy. Goalie Linus Ullmark had a memorable season (40 wins, 1.89 GAA), and appears fresh for a deep postseason run. Hands down, the current favorite to win the Stanley Cup unless something really strange happens.

Prediction: Boston cruises into the second round with a four game sweep.

New York Rangers (Metropolitan Division #3) vs. New Jersey Devils (Metropolitan Division #2)

Regular Season records: New York Rangers 47-22-13, 107 points; New Jersey 52-22-8, 112 points

Head-to-Head Matchups in 2022-2023: New Jersey won three out of four games played and outscored the Rangers 14-11 in total goals

Battle of the Hudson River will be an entertaining series to watch. Rangers want to repeat their 2022 playoffs run to the Eastern Conference finals. they have the roster to do just that. Five players scored 22+ goals during the regular season (Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, Chris Kreider, Filip Chytil). Adding Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko to that mix of offensive firepower, will help the power play unit. Defense is stout with Adam Fox and K’Andre Miller. All-world goalie Igor Shesterkin (37 wins, 2.48 GAA) loves the big stage. The Broadway Blueshirts are ready to make some noise again.

Devils are the surprise team of the 2022-2023 NHL regular season. Improved from 27-46-9 (63 points) in 2022, to 52-22-8 (112 points) in 2023. Head coach Lindy Ruff is in his third season in New Jersey and continues to mold young players into talented veterans. Have six players with 20+ goals scored during the regular season. Center Jack Hughes (43 goals, 56 assists) has taken his play to the next level, and is the unquestioned leader in the locker room. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton (22 goals, 52 assists) is in the midst of a career year, and #7 jersey sales are trending up on the east coast. Goalie Vitek Vanecek (33 wins, 2.45 GAA) will have to stand on his head to keep up with Shesterkin in the highlights department.

Prediction: Instant classic series will go seven games and the New York Rangers move onto the second round.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Atlantic Division #3) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (Atlantic Division #2)

Regular Season records: Tampa Bay 46-30-6, 98 points; Toronto 50-21-11, 111 points

Head-to-Head matchups in 2022-2023: Toronto won two of the three games played and outscored Tampa Bay 11-8 in total goals

These teams played an epic first round series in the 2022 playoffs, with the Lightning advancing in seven games. Despite playing in the last three Stanley Cup Finals (2020, 2021, 2022), most of the talking heads aren’t giving Tampa Bay much attention as the playoffs begin. Ten players scored 10+ goals during the regular season. Center Brayden Point blew up the stats sheet this season (51 goals, 44 assists). Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev guide the defensive corps night in and night out. Helps to have the best postseason goalie on the planet, Andrei Vasilevskiy, keeping the biscuit out of the basket during high pressure games. Don’t sleep on the Lightning roster yet.

Maple Leafs haven’t won a playoff series since 2004, and their fan base will be sitting on pins and needles yet again. Went 13-9 during the last six weeks of the regular season, but are due to break through their playoff jinx in a big way. Have four players who scored 30+ goals during the regular season. Forward Mitchell Marner worked hard on improving his offensive skill set and was rewarded with a solid season (30 goals, 69 assists). Center Auston Matthews (40 goals, 45 assists) continues to get better, but he needs to focus on defense and leadership during the pressure cooker of the postseason. Until Matthews does that, Toronto will be fun to watch but won’t advance past the first round.

Prediction: Really want to pick Toronto to win this series in seven games, but Tampa Bay shows they are rested and ready for another deep run and advance in six games.

Western Conference Round 1 Playoff Series

Minnesota Wild (Central Division #3) vs. Dallas Stars (Central Division #2)

Regular Season records: Minnesota 46-25-11, 103 points; Dallas 47-21-14, 108 points

Head-to-Head matchups in 2022-2023: Teams split the four games played (2-2) and Dallas outscored Minnesota 14-10 in total goals

Wild went 12-9 during the final stretch of the regular season and seemed to get tired in a crowded Central Division race with Colorado and Dallas. Forward Kirill Kaprizov (40 goals, 35 assists) only played in 67 regular season games due to injuries. Matt Boldy blossomed as a second line winger this season (31 goals, 32 assists). Jared Spurgeon headlines the defenseman crew (11 goals, 23 assists). Will rely on aging Marc-Andre Fleury in goal, but backup Filip Gustavsson (22 wins, 2.10 GAA) would be a starter on most teams. Head coach Dean Evason has changed the culture and vibe of the Wild organization.

Stars quietly went about their business this season and had no issues letting the Oilers, Knights and Avalanche grab the sport headlines over the last month of the season. Went 10-3 over the last four weeks and are riding a six game winning streak. Have six players who scored 21+ goals during the regular season. When star forward Jason Robertson isn’t working on his golf game, he’s almost scoring at will (46 goals, 63 assists). Defensemen corps was quiet this season, but they seem to flip an offensive switch in the playoffs. Miro Heinskanen (11 goals, 62 assists) and Esa Lindell (8 goals, 16 assists) lock down opposing top line matchups. Goalie Jake Oettinger (37 wins, 2.37 GAA) is a budding superstar and the entire country will know who he is during this tourney.

Prediction: Hard series to predict due to how similar both teams are. Dallas uses home ice advantage to win in six games.

Los Angeles Kings (Pacific Division #3) vs. Edmonton Oilers (Pacific Division #2)

Regular Season records: Los Angeles 47-25-10, 104 points; Edmonton 50-23-9, 109 points

Head-to-Head matchups in 2022-2023: Los Angeles won two of the three games played and outscored Edmonton 9-6 in total goals

Rematch of the 2022 first round series that Edmonton won in seven games. Kings went 13-7 during the last six weeks of the season. Had no problem hanging with the high scoring teams in the Western Division. Might be due to the chrome helmets they wear during home games. Center Anze Kopitar continues to ignore father time by playing at an elite level (28 goals, 46 assists). Kopitar has help with a deep offense that has been diversified with Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, Viktor Arvidsson and Phillip Danault. Defenseman Drew Doughty (9 goals, 43 assists) continues to quarterback the power play and organize his linemates. Can goalie Phoenix Copley (24 wins, 2.64 GAA), withstand the offensive onslaught the Oilers will bring each game?

Oilers are downright scary on offense this season. Likely NHL MVP Connor McDavid (64 goals, 89 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (52 goals, 76 assists), seem to be playing a video game on the ice rink. Helps that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (37 goals) and Zach Hyman (36 goals) are keeping pace. Defenseman Darnell Nurse (12 goals, 31 assists) is playing more relaxed this season and that attitude has rubbed off on his teammates. Only weak link is goalie Stuart Skinner (29 wins, 2.75 GAA), who was a huge surprise during the regular season. Western Conference is tough from top to bottom, but the playoffs bracket can quickly turn into Pitfall for a timid goalie.

Prediction: Connor and Draisaitl play highlight reel hockey to get Edmonton to the second round in six games.

Winnipeg Jets (Central Division Wildcard #2) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (Pacific Division #1)

Regular Season records: Winnipeg 46-33-3, 95 points; Vegas 51-22-9, 111 points

Head-to-Head matchups in 2022-2023: Vegas won all three games played and outscored Winnipeg 13-8 in total goals

Jets are back in the NHL playoffs for the first time since 2021. First year head coach Rick Bowness made a seamless transition from Dallas to Winnipeg. Besides having a top notch third alternate uniform kit, the Jets have won five out of their last seven games to sneak into the playoffs bracket. Forwards Mark Scheifele (42 goals, 26 assists) and Kyle Connor (31 goals, 49 assists) pace a consistent offense. Eight players scored 10+ goals during the regular season. Defense is led by Josh Morrissey (16 goals, 60 assists). Goalie Connor Hellebuyck rebounded from a tough statistical start to the season, and ended up with 37 wins and a 2.49 GAA. Jets are the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team of the 2023 playoffs grid.

Golden Knights are clicking as they head into the playoffs due to finishing the season on a 16-6 run from 3/1/23 to 4/14/23. First year head coach Bruce Cassidy has pushed all of the right buttons in the desert, to reset after the debacle of the 2021-2022 season. A deep roster had twelve players score 11+ goals during the regular season. Center Jack Eichel (27 goals, 39 assists) appears to be back in top notch playing form after two up and down seasons. Two old timers on the blueline (Alec Martinez, Alex Pietrangelo) want at least one more deep playoffs run. Goalie tandem of Logan Thompson (21 wins) and Adin Hill (16 wins) worked during the regular season, but veteran Jonathan Quick is waiting if called upon.

Prediction: Vegas is too deep and focused for the Jets to handle and advance in four games.

Seattle Kraken (Pacific Division Wildcard #1) vs. Colorado Avalanche (Central Division #1)

Regular Season records: Seattle 46-28-8, 100 points; Colorado 51-24-7, 109 points

Head-to-Head matchups in 2022-2023: Seattle won two of the three games played and outscored Colorado 7-6 in total goals

Kraken took a year longer than the last expansion team (Vegas) to make the NHL playoffs. Seattle is built for the long haul, due to having thirteen players score 13+ goals during the regular season. Forward Jared McCann (40 goals, 30 assists) is very comfortable playing in the Pacific Northwest. Rookie Matty Beniers (24 goals, 33 assists) had a banner season and seems to play with a low pulse. Defensemen corps is anchored by Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson and Justin Schultz. Goalie Martin Jones (27 wins, 2.99 GAA) grabbed the starting job early in the season and didn’t let go of it.

Avalanche had an inconsistent season until finding second gear and finishing on a 17-7 run from 3/1/23 to 4/14/23. Injuries have ravaged the roster (Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Josh Manson, Bowen Byram). Top offensive line of Mikko Rantanen (50 goals, 55 assists), Nathan McKinnon (42 goals, 69 assists), and J.T. Compher (17 goals, 35 assists) picked up the scoring slack. Defensemen unit has relied on Devon Toews and Samuel Girard to play big minutes. Goalie Alexander Georgiev (40 wins, 2.53 GAA) has been better than advertised.

Prediction: Will be a bumpy series with several momentum shifts and home ice advantage will be a big factor. Colorado plays much better with Makar in the lineup and wins the series in six games.

Same bat time, same bat channel in two weeks. I’ll review the results of the NHL Stanley Cup Round 1 Playoff series and try again for Round 2.

Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed the predictions for Round 1 of the NHL playoffs.

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