This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 4 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on NBC is right around the corner on 9/30/21 and that means Week 4 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 3 Picks Recap
2021 All Picks Recap
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 4
5. Baltimore vs. Denver
Ravens and Broncos have been intertwined in NFL history since April 1983. John Elway stated he wouldn’t play for the Baltimore Colts and demanded a trade after being drafted first overall. Broncos swopped in with a last minute trade offer. Colts ended up moving in the middle of the night to Indianapolis in 1984. Elway literally owned the Cleveland Browns in AFC Championship games from 1986-1989. Browns moved to Baltimore in 1996 and were renamed the Ravens. After winning two Super Bowl championships in 2000 and 2012, the Ravens now lead the Broncos in head-to-head matchups at 8-6 since 1996. Broncos are currently 1.0 point home favorites, but they haven’t played a defense as fundamentally sound and hard hitting as the Ravens yet in 2021.
Prediction: Really want to pick the Broncos to improve to 4-0 if Teddy Bridgewater has a big game, but the Ravens will slow this game down, grind the clock and win by 9 points
4. Carolina vs. Dallas
Surprising 3-0 Panthers travel to Jerry’s World to play the almost unstoppable Cowboys offense. Last time Carolina’s QB, Sam Darnold, played a game at the Cowboy’s Stadium in late 2017, he looked completely underprepared and overwhelmed by a quick defense. Darnold might have flashbacks due to not having Christian McCaffrey in the backfield due to a hamstring injury. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense are clicking on all cylinders (RBs, WRs and TEs) and now expectations will creep into that formula of winning. It’ll be interesting to see how coach Mike McCarthy deals with an excited Dallas sports media.
Prediction: Cowboys cruise to a 10+ point victory
3. Arizona vs. Los Angeles Rams
NFC West battle of two undefeated heavyweights. Cardinals have two quality wins over Tennessee and Minnesota. Rams just made the unbeatable Buccaneers and Tom Brady look ordinary in Week #3. Something has to give between an offensively gifted squad (Cardinals) versus a scary defensive squad (Rams). Hedging my bet that Matthew Stafford continues to play like a reborn QB and Kyler Murray will be taking notes from his sideline during a high scoring game that will come down to a walk off win.
Prediction: Rams win by 3 points and a new divisional rivalry is born
2. Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles Chargers
An old fashioned AFC West matchup between two teams that have moved cities in the past four years. Raiders are 3-0 after impressive victories against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Miami. Chargers would be undefeated if not for a walk-off field goal against the Cowboys. More importantly, Chargers just got a huge road win at Kansas City that will have AFC West Division impacts for the rest of 2021. Raiders have an under rated defensive line that will give QB Justin Herbert fits. Chargers continue to distribute the ball to all of their offensive playmakers. Raiders will try to disguise their lack of a running game for a fourth straight week. That magic act will disappear on the road on Monday night.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers win by 8 points and the AFC West is now officially a track meet
1. Tampa Bay vs. New England
Hype machine is already cranked up for Tom Brady’s first official return, to face the team that he won six Super Bowl titles (2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016, 2018) with. I’ve already got a bottle of Pepto-Bismol ready, when Cris Collinsworth starts his annual lovefest about Tom Brady while he’s analyzing the game for NBC Sunday Night Football. Get off of his jockstrap Cris, you played with Ken Anderson and Boomer Esiason in Cincinnati, move on and do your job please. Buccaneers were schooled by the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 4 and will be ready to get back on track offensively. No idea how Mac Jones will perform in a game with this much hype, but if he plays steady and doesn’t make mistakes, the Patriots may have found their future franchise QB.
Prediction: Buccaneers win by 14+ points and Brady barely acknowledges Bill Belichick at mid-field
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 4 for Upsets that might happen
5. Seattle vs. San Francisco
This used to be the best rivalry in the NFC from 2012-2014, and clearly shows how time really flies. Seahawks have serious defensive issues after back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Minnesota. 49ers were cruising along at 2-0, before losing to the Packers at home in walk off fashion due to a Mason Crosby 51 yard field goal. Whichever team loses this game will face the sudden reality of being lapped in the NFC West by the Rams and Cardinals. 49ers are currently 3.0 point favorites at home and this game will be a toss up. Seahawks historically plays well at San Francisco.
4. Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay
Two proud franchises with significant histories meet at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. Technically a rematch of Super Bowl 45, when Aaron Rodgers won his first and only title as QB of the Packers. I keep picking the Steelers to win games each week, assuming they’ll get dialed in on offense and their defense will hold the fort when points are hard to come by. In reality, the Ben Roethlisberger era is coming to a close and the Steelers need to come up with a new blueprint for success starting now, not in 2022. Hoping Mike Tomlin has a few tricks up this sleeve, but the entire NFL exposes a team when they have no plan. Packers are currently 6.5 point favorites at home and the Steelers will push them for close to three quarters. Rodgers and Davante Adams will play a lot of pitch and catch in the fourth quarter to pull away.
3. Washington vs. Atlanta
This is a push game, since both teams each have one victory in 2021 against the New York Giants. Washington Football Team was a trendy pick by many experts to emerge from a crowded NFC. Washington plays hard every down, but their offense just doesn’t move the chains or score many points. Will this be the game that rookie Kyle Pitts has the light bulb go on and Matt Ryan realizes he’s a younger version of Tony Gonzalez? If yes, watch out for a wide open Falcons offense. If no, get ready for a 10-7 or 13-10 snooze fest of a game. Falcons are currently a 1.5 point underdog at home and they should send their fans home happy with a victory.
2. Detroit vs. Chicago
According to Chris Berman, an NFC Norris Division showdown between the Lions and Bears at Soldier Field. Hard to score a Gordy Howe hat trick during a football game. Lions are still trying to integrate Jared Goff as their starting QB, into a stagnant offense that looks like they really want a bye week. Bears are being the typical Bears franchise heading into Week 4. Weird decisions on whether to name a starting QB or to spin a roulette wheel. Head coach Matt Nagy is on the hot seat for not giving rookie Justin Fields a better game plan in Week 3, and the Blackhawks are in the middle of a long rebuilding plan. Hard not to confuse football and hockey in the Windy City these days. Bears are currently 3.0 point favorites at home, but the Lions emerge with a road win thanks to their low key head coach, Dan Campbell.
1. Indianapolis vs. Miami
One of the least exciting games on the docket for Week 4. The Colts are due to score more than 16 points and they have Carson Wentz starting at QB. Dolphins are in a cycle of close game, blowout, close game, which leads to a blowout in Week 4. If the Dolphins had Tua Tagovailoa as their starting QB, this game wouldn’t be on the upset side of this posting. Plugging in Jacoby Brissett into the starting QB slot, is similar to how much money the Houston Texans spent on Brock Osweiler in 2016 free agency (i.e. bad idea). Dolphins are currently 2.0 point favorites at home, but expect the Colts to get their first victory of 2021.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 4 and try again in Week 5.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 4.
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