This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week 6 and top 5 upsets. Week 6 is here and that means the heart of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 5 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Auburn, Oklahoma State and Alabama
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 correct thanks to Kentucky
Overall picks – 4/10 which is two standard deviations below the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 15/25 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 13/25 correct
Overall picks – 28/50 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. Latest installment of the annual Red River Showdown. Since 2014, this game has been decided by seven points or less for the victor. Sooners enter this game at 5-0, but they haven’t shown an ability to close games out yet. Subsequently the Sooners have dropped from #2 to #6 in the national rankings. Longhorns are off to a 4-1 start, with a glaring loss to Arkansas in Week #2. Steve Sarkisian has the Longhorns playing hard in his first season as head coach. This game is always a toss up due to the gameday atmosphere at the old Cotton Bowl Stadium and the Texas State Fair. Anyone seen the new Big Tex in the last few years?
Prediction: Game will be close for sixty minutes and the Sooners win by four points
4. Arkansas vs. Ole Miss
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Oxford, MS. Both teams are coming off bad blowout losses in Week #5 (Georgia beat Arkansas 37-0 and Alabama beat Ole Miss 42-21). Winner of this game has an outside chance of catching Alabama in the SEC West, but a lot of factors need to fall into place for that to happen. Rebels are currently 5.5 point home favorites, but this game truly looks like a toss up. It’ll be interesting to see if Lane Kiffin is more relaxed this week without having to face Nick Saban.
Prediction: Arkansas burned me last week by not showing up against Georgia and I’m not convinced Ole Miss is a resilient team. Rebels win by seven points due to playing at home.
3. Georgia vs. Auburn
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, AL. Georgia elevated their level of play during the Week #5 shutout of Arkansas, and they are on par with Alabama right now. Auburn finally broke twenty-two years of futility by beating LSU in Baton Rouge, LA for the first time since 1999. This will be a defensive gem of a game, featuring a ton of sacks, tackles for loss and too many three and out possessions for each team. That will play right into the Bulldogs strengths.
Prediction: Tight game for two to three quarters and then the Bulldogs pull away for a 13 point victory
2. Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Prime time evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) from College Station, TX. Crimson Tide hold an 11-2 advantage over the Aggies in games played since 1942. Diehard Aggies fans keep pointing to Johnny Manziel’s coming out party in 2012, when the Aggies won 29-24. Last time I checked, Alabama went on to win the National Championship that season over Notre Dame, and where is Manziel these days? Great question to start a football debate. Crimson Tide are currently 18.0 point road favorites and the Aggies simply don’t have the depth and talent to keep up. Gut feeling senses that Nick Saban likes beating Jimbo Fisher on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Crimson Tide have a workmanlike 21+ point road victory
1. Penn State vs. Iowa
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EDT) from Iowa City, IA. Both teams come in 5-0 with eyes on the Big Ten Championship game and a legitimate shot at being invited to the CFP. Nittany Lions have a tougher schedule to win the Big Ten East, and the Hawkeyes can almost coast to the Big Ten West title. All of the television analysts will be showing flashbacks to the 1985 season, when Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan played patty cake trying to win the Big Ten championship. Nittany Lions are a complete team that seem to rise at the exact correct moment in a big game to change momentum or seize control. Hawkeyes are playing sound offensive and defensive football and don’t need any press clippings. Best game of the week to watch for 60 minutes and then ask yourself this question, “can the Big Ten legitimately hang with the SEC in the CFP?” Great rhetorical question for the 2021 season so far.
Prediction: Iowa is currently a 1.5 point home favorite and Penn State finds a way to win this game by 2 points
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #5 Upsets that might happen
5. Stanford vs. Arizona State
Cardinal comes into this game sky high after wearing down and shocking the #3 ranked Oregon Ducks in Week #5. Unfortunately that victory seriously hampers the PAC-12 chances of making the CFP. The 4-1 Sun Devils have a “quality” loss against BYU and could easily run the table in the PAC-12 on paper. That’s one reason why the Cardinal should be motivated to make some more conference noise as 13 point road underdogs. Herm Edward’s coaching staff will be sweating a lot in the desert heat, as the Cardinals push his team around for three-to-four quarters.
4. Michigan State vs. Rutgers
Spartans head coach Mel Tucker should be a front runner for FBS coach-of-the-year. Michigan State has slowly climbed to the #11 ranking, before heading into the heart of their Big Ten schedule. Rutgers has a quality loss to Michigan, followed by a blowout loss to Ohio State. Greg Schiano has done a great job rebuilding the Scarlet Knights into a competitive football team. Spartans historically start slow at SHI Stadium in New Jersey and are 4.5 point road favorites. Hopefully Tucker has Go Green, Go White ready to play, or this could turn out to be trap game for the Scarlet Knights.
3. Boise State vs. BYU
Broncos are following a standard pattern of loss, win, loss, win, loss to be 2-3 headed into this game. Cougars are having a special season at 5-0 and currently ranked #10. BYU’s schedule is interesting down the stretch due to playing the Big 12, PAC-12 and ACC. No wonder the Cougars are ecstatic to join the Big 12 conference. Broncos are very comfortable playing on the road. They are already used to the stylish monochromatic navy blue uniforms the Cougars will be sporting this weekend. Cougars are 6.0 point home favorites and the Broncos will make them earn a victory to remain undefeated. Don’t be surprised if the Boise State pattern comes to fruition.
2. Wyoming vs. Air Force
Rare night game (7:00 PM EDT) from Falcons Stadium in Colorado Springs, CO. This is a very underrated rivalry over the years with Air Force currently holding a 29-26-3 series lead, dating back to 1957. I was lucky to attend the 1988 game with Wyoming winning 48-45. That was my first introduction to Cowboys fans yelling “move them chains,” every time their team picked up a first down. Wyoming is 4-0 heading into this game due to all victories being close on the scoreboard. Falcons have played all of their opponents tough, with a close loss to Utah State as their only blemish. Air Force is a current 5.0 point home favorite, but the Cowboys are a focused team. After a short bus ride to Colorado and getting their elevation breath in the first half, Cowboys should remain undefeated.
1. Michigan vs. Nebraska
Interesting matchup on paper due to both programs sharing the 1997 National Championship (Wolverines won the AP Poll and the Cornhuskers won the Coaches Poll). Charles Woodson won the Heisman Trophy that season and Scott Frost was the starting QB for the Huskers. Frost is now the head coach at Nebraska and his coaching seat is red hot. Wolverines are clicking on both sides of the ball and they could crash the Big Ten East party, which is currently only inviting Penn State and Ohio State. Nebraska has been inconsistent this season and they don’t seem to care about their historical homefield advantage that disappeared with moving to the Big Ten. Wolverines are a small 2.5 point road favorite and I’m assuming Frost will pull out a set of “revenge” plays and motivation for sharing the title in 1997. Get ready for a ton of running plays interrupted by defense for four quarters.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week 6 and try again in Week #7.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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