This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #7 and top 5 upsets. Week #7 is here and that means the heart of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 6 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Georgia
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 correct thanks to Boise State
Overall picks – 4/10 which is two standard deviations below the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 18/30 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 14/30 correct
Overall picks – 32/60 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Nippert Stadium in Cincinnatti, OH. Amazing how a four to five year shelf life can impact a rising college football program. UCF is and will always be remembered for their perfect 13-0 season in 2017. Knights were shut out of the CFP in 2017 due to being from the American Athletic Conference. An impressive Peach Bowl win over Auburn, caused some fans to call the Knights the 2017 national champions (Alabama beat Georgia in OT to claim the real 2017 national championship trophy). Two coaches have left UCF to bigger programs (Scott Frost to Nebraska and Josh Heupel to Tennessee). Time will tell if Gus Malzhan has any magic left in his coaching playbook, now that he’s at UCF. Bearcats enter this game with their highest ranking ever at #3 and they are playing with a ton of confidence. Luke Fickell will have his squad ready to play and not looking forward to a big game against SMU on 11/20/21.
Prediction: Bearcats might not cover the 21.5 point spread, but they’ll coast to a 17+ point victory
4. Oklahoma State vs. Texas
How do the Longhorns get up after their mind boggling loss to the Sooners last weekend in Dallas? Trust the new process that coach Steve Sarkisian has implemented and continue to showcase Bijan Robinson at RB. What the Longhorns don’t know is they will be playing a pissed off Cowboys team this week, due to Texas moving to the SEC in 2025 or earlier. Cowboys have been playing with a quiet chip on their shoulder this season and its growing on a weekly basis. Spencer Sanders will continue to run a game management playbook at QB for the Cowboys, while leaning heavily on an underrated defense.
Prediction: Time for Mike Gundy’s squad to win a big road game by 4 points and let the Sooners know they are trending up for Bedlam in 2021 on 11/27/21
3. Kentucky vs. Georgia
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from between the hedges at Athens, GA. Wildcats are suddenly a rising team in the SEC East due to wins over Florida and LSU. Wonder how many Wildcat fans are thinking about midnight madness for college basketball, due to this nice conference run in football. Bulldogs continue to fine tune a top notch defense and their starting QB is interchangeable due to injuries. Bulldogs will continue to toy with SEC opponents until November or December 2021.
Prediction: Georgia is a big 21.5 point home favorite and they’ll win by 14+ points after a close first half
2. TCU vs. Oklahoma
Prime time evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Norman, OK. How do the Sooners respond after their cardiac victory over Texas last weekend in Dallas? Not sure if a starting QB battle will help or hurt team chemistry, since Caleb Williams provided a huge spark during the second half in Dallas. Horned Frogs come in at 3-2, with both of their losses against ranked teams (SMU and Texas). There was a time when TCU had the Sooners number (in 2014), but that history won’t repeat itself this season.
Prediction: Sooners win a closer than expected game by 9 points
1. Arizona State vs. Utah
Late night kickoff (10:00 PM EDT) from Salt Lake City, UT. Sun Devils come into this game at 5-1 and the biggest CFP hope for the PAC-12. I keep waiting for Herm Edwards’ squad to implode and that hasn’t happened yet. Utes have been on an emotional roller coaster in 2020 and 2021 due to losing Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe to gun violence. Utes had a big win on the road at USC in Week #6, but are emotionally drained now. Maybe a scheduling coincidence, with both teams having already lost to BYU this season (Sun Devils lost by 10 points and Utah by 9 points). Betting line is currently even and the Sun Devils are trending up on a weekly basis.
Prediction: Arizona State wins a forgettable game by 7 points
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #7 Upsets that might happen
5. Auburn vs. Arkansas
Two second tier SEC teams meet in Fayetteville, AR. Razorbacks are currently 4.5 point home favorites and have conveniently forgotten their bad shutout against Georgia in Week #5 and a one point loss to Ole Miss in Week #6. Auburn has two losses against ranked teams (Penn State and Georgia) and will be looking for another big SEC road win. This game won’t be flashy on the offensive side of the ball and the Tigers have plenty of defensive speed to contain both Razorback QBs. Relatively low scoring game if the underdog Tigers can pull a mild upset.
4. Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Jimbo Fisher is still celebrating his Aggies upset win over top ranked Alabama in Week #6. Even though the Aggies got stellar play from backup QB Zach Calzada and some timely special teams plays, the real hero was defensive coordinator Mike Elko. Elko called a perfect game of delayed and odd man fronts using LBs and CBs when Alabama wasn’t expecting it. Tigers are inconsistent from week to week at 3-3, but they like playing at home and QB Connor Bazelak is due for a big statistical game. Aggies are current 11.0 point road favorites, but this game will be much closer on the scoreboard.
3. Purdue vs. Iowa
Classic Big Ten mis-match in Iowa City, IA with the Hawkeyes current 11.5 point home favorites. Boilermakers have a tendency to pull upsets at home when least expected. Purdue doesn’t have the talent and depth to keep up with the hardworking Hawkeyes. Gut feeling is that Iowa will be sluggish in this game due to some scoreboard watching across the country. If this game is close heading into the fourth quarter, anything is possible.
2. Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech
Panthers are having a nice season at 4-1 and trying to be the ACC Coastal Division regular season champion. Pitt also has some cool throwback uniforms and helmets, that make old time college football fans remember Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino. Virginia Tech is a tough ACC opponent at home and should have beaten Notre Dame in Week #6, until a last minute FG. Hokies will be fired up to finish a 60 minute game and show bettors that the 6.5 point home underdog spread is incorrect.
1. Florida vs. LSU
Two SEC teams that have decided all remaining games are considered scrimmages, meaning lack of tackling and competitive desire to improve on a weekly basis. Gators rely too much on QB Emory Jones to carry their offense and they need to diversify play calling now and not wait until 2022. Tigers coach Ed Orgeron is on the hot seat at 3-3 and less than two seasons removed from the 2019 National Championship. His Tigers haven’t played with their usual intensity and basic football fundamentals since a bad Week #1 loss at UCLA. When Orgeron failed badly at Ole Miss from 2005-2007, the third season was a lesson in futility with the locker room quitting on him. That won’t happen this weekend at Death Valley in Baton Rouge, LA with the Gators being 12.5 point road favorites. The end is near for the Orgeron coaching staff and it won’t be improving in 2021.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #7 and try again in Week #8.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
Want to find highly rated beers near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.
