This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #8 and top 5 upsets. Week #8 is here and that means the heart of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 7 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Georgia and Oklahoma
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 correct thanks to Auburn, Purdue and LSU
Overall picks – 7/10 which is two standard deviations above the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 22/35 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 17/35 correct
Overall picks – 39/70 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Prime time evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from South Bend, IN. Hard to believe its been sixteen years since the Bush Push game in 2005 at Notre Dame Stadium. Trojans won 34-31 due to Matt Leinart’s TD run from the 1 yard line, with a lot of help from Reggie Bush to cross the goal line with 3 seconds left in regulation. Both programs have been on significantly different trajectories since 2005, with the Trojans burning through head coaches every 3-5 seasons. Brian Kelly took the head coaching job at Notre Dame in 2010 and the Fighting Irish have been a perennial top 10 team each season under his tutelage. Hoping the Trojans have done their historical rivalry homework and understand this game counts, but I’m not holding my breath due to how the 2021 season has transpired so far.
Prediction: Notre Dame is currently a 7.0 point home favorite and they’ll easily cover that line
4. Oregon vs. UCLA
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA. Chip Kelly gets to coach against the school that made him an NFL commodity in 2012 for the Philadelphia Eagles. Ducks have newborn CFP life after Iowa lost in Week #7 and are hoping the rest of the Big Ten unbeatens get in each others way. Oregon needs to forget the last two weeks due to losing to Stanford in OT and sleep walking against Cal. UCLA still sports a two headed RB tandem, a solid stable of WRs and Greg Dulcich at TE (the next Greg Olsen at the NFL level). Ducks will have their webbed feet full at the most picturesque setting in all of college football.
Prediction: UCLA is currently a 1.0 point home favorite and this game is a toss-up due to the offensive talent for both teams. Oregon wins by 4 points due to their defensive line pressure working in the fourth quarter.
3. Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA. Could this game be the official baton handoff or changing of the guard, as Clemson’s window of ACC dominance is handed to Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and NC State? Only time will tell, but can’t wait to see rabid college football fans invade the Pittsburgh Steelers stadium and get behind their Panthers on ESPN. Tigers have been plagued by inconsistent QB play from D.J. Uiagalelei, which has led to less offensive points scored and that results in losses. Panthers have some of the best uniforms and helmets in all of college football. Senior QB Kenny Pickett, is having a monster statistical season and that leads directly to wins. Time for Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi to get some national attention and hopefully USC is taking notes.
Prediction: Pittsburgh is currently a 3.5 point home favorite and they’ll claw out a 7 point victory due to winning the turnover battle
2. Tennessee vs. Alabama
Prime time evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Tuscaloosa, AL. Josh Heupel is the new SEC head coach contestant to face a Nick Saban led team on the road. Crimson Tide continue to fine tune their offensive line due to the Week #6 debacle against Texas A&M. Most college football fans forget that Heupel was the starting QB for the rebuilt Oklahoma Sooners in 2000 and won the national title by beating Florida State. Heupel played for a no-name second year coach in 2000, Bob Stoops. Stoops did just fine during eighteen seasons in Norman, OK. Alabama typically treats the months of October and November as scrimmages to get ready for the annual Iron Bowl and SEC Championship Game. Volunteers will learn a harsh lesson this weekend when facing a team with no media pressure, just coaching expectations.
Prediction: Alabama is currently a 25.0 point home favorite and will win this game easily
1. San Diego State vs. Air Force
Prime time evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Colorado Springs, CO. Aztecs are 6-0 and ranked #22, due to playing hard for head coach Brady Hoke. Try to forget that Hoke led the Michigan Wolverines directly into the basement of the Big Ten from 2011-2014. San Diego has one quality win (Utah) and Air Force has two quality wins (Wyoming and Boise State). Evening games in the Mountain West have a tendency to be unpredictable score wise and playing at 7,200 feet above sea level will impact the Aztecs for 30-40 game time minutes. Aztecs passing game vs. Falcons running game. Worth tuning in for the second half to see which team is better conditioned for playing at a high elevation.
Prediction: Air Force is currently a 3.0 point home favorite they’ll hang on to win by 3 pointsin walk-off fashion
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #8 Upsets that might happen
5. Wake Forest vs. Army
Demon Deacons are a very quiet 6-0 team and ranked #16 going into this matchup at West Point, NY. Black Knights are literally running their offensive game plan to perfection, since they have passed for a total of 435 yards for the season. Dave Clawson and the entire Wake Forest coaching staff won’t have to yell “watch the screen pass” since Army always runs the ball on every down. Demon Deacons are currently 3.5 point road favorites, but Army has a way of lulling passing teams to sleep. This is definitely a trap game for Wake Forest.
4. Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
Oklahoma State is no longer a below the radar team due to rising to the #8 ranking in the country. Cowboys defense is the real deal and it bears repeating from Week #7…..OSU outgained Texas 170 yards to 1 yard in the fourth quarter. That statistic is not a misprint and it also happened on the road at Texas Memorial Stadium. Cyclones were a popular pick at the beginning of the 2021 season due to their Big 12 success in 2020 and having the next trendy head coach in Matt Campbell. Iowa State got manhandled by Iowa in Week #2 and then Baylor beat them in Week #4 by two points. Cyclones haven’t played their best football game yet in 2021, and its a tall task to expect them to break out of their lower tier funk against the Cowboys defense. Iowa State are currently 7.0 point home favorites and the Cowboys are still carrying a big chip on their shoulder due to Oklahoma moving to the SEC.
3. LSU vs. Ole Miss
The term “dead man walking” no longer applies to LSU head coach Ed Orgeron, since he and the LSU Athletic Director have agreed to part ways at the end of the 2021 season. Hard to believe that just two seasons ago, LSU had one of the best statistical college football seasons in history at 15-0, won the national championship, Heisman Trophy winner and Orgeron was rewarded with a six year contract extension. It is incredibly hard to stay near the base camp summit of college football after reaching the highest mountain top. Ole Miss is still basking in the glow of a road win at Tennessee last week during Lane Kiffin’s homecoming party. That party included bottles and golf balls on the field and a defiant Kiffin tossing his visor into the crowd. Nothing against the Lane Train leaving the station, but the Rebels are due for a letdown in Week #8, especially being 7.5 point home favorites.
2. Maryland vs. Minnesota
Late afternoon game (3:30 PM EDT) from Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. Both Big Ten teams enter this game with 4-2 records. Terrapins have been beaten soundly the last two weeks by Iowa and Ohio State. Gophers win the games they are supposed to (Purdue, Nebraska, Colorado) and lose the games they aren’t supposed to (Bowling Green). P.J. Fleck continues to teach his players to row the boat and they are listening, but they need to focus on all Big Ten games. Still not a fan of the Terrapins helmets due to the most unique state flag in the USA, but Under Armour continues to make jersey and pant combos rivaling the Oregon Ducks. Gophers are currently 4.0 point home favorites, but the Terps will push them into the early part of the fourth quarter due to QB play from Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua’s little brother).
1. BYU vs. Washington State
The would of, could of, should of game of 2021 that reminds fans 2020 wasn’t that long ago. BYU Cougars were the feel good story of the early 2021 season just two weeks ago, prior to losing to Boise State and Baylor. That’s a preview of BYU joining the Big 12 conference. Washington State Cougars have had a strange week due to the firing of their head coach and four assistant coaches, since none of them got the Covid-19 vaccine by the WA state employee mandate deadline of 10/19/21. Interim head coach Jake Dickert will do his best to keep the squad motivated and prepared to finish out their PAC-12 season. Most of the team is in shock over their head coach’s firing and that will translate to an angry football team ready to take their frustrations out on BYU. BYU is currently a 4.0 point road favorite, but this will be a choppy game in Pulman, WA that the fans will try to will the home team to a win.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #8 and try again in Week #9.
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