This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #10 and top 5 upsets. Week #10 is here and that means the heart of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 9 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia and Michigan State
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 correct thanks to Virginia Tech
Overall picks -5/10 which is right on the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 30/45 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 18/45 correct
Overall picks – 48/90 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Late night kickoff (10:15 PM EDT) from El Paso, TX. Good matchup of the 8-0 Roadrunners vs. the 6-2 Miners from tbe Sun Bowl Stadium. Hard to believe the Roadrunners have only been playing football at the FBS level since 2011. Larry Coker and Frank Wilson cobbled their squads together from 2011-2019. Looks like Jeff Traylor is the real deal as a head football coach due to recruiting a competitive team that has been ranked since Week 8 of the 2021 season. Roadrunners were proactive in signing Traylor to a new contract through 2031. I haven’t paid attention to the Miners since they took a calculated risk by hiring Mike Pence in late 2003, after his bad decision making at Alabama. UTEP has been a 0.500 or below team for the past 12-13 seasons, but new head coach Dana Dimel has brought sound recruiting and stability to the program.
Prediction: UTSA is currently a 11.0 point road favorite and they won’t cover that line, but will win by 8 points
4. Ohio State vs. Nebraska
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, NE. Buckeyes are trending up towards the CFP as they seem to do every season in November. Cornhuskers continue to trend down at 3-6 due to committing too many turnovers and penalties. Buckeyes lead this series 8-1, including six straight wins since 2012 with most games being blowouts. The contrasting coaching styles of Ryan Day and Scott Frost will be on full display for the entire country to decide if Frost should remain in Lincoln. If the final score is as bad as projected, don’t be surprised if the Husker boosters have a late night discussion about moving on from Frost and his coaching staff.
Prediction: Ohio State is currently a 14.5 point road favorite and will win easily. Scoreboard will get out of hand in the third quarter.
3. LSU vs. Alabama
Primetime kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL. Tigers are short handed due to injuries and a lack of roster depth. Ed Orgeron has four games left as head coach and it’ll be interesting to see if he stays in coaching or fully retires after the 2021 season is complete. Crimson Tide are sitting comfortably in the #2 slot in the CFP rankings and are trying not to look forward to the Iron Bowl on 11/27/21. Nick Saban will use the next three games to fine tune his offensive game plans and tweak situational defensive schemes. Bryce Young will continue to be the projected leader for the 2021 Heisman Trophy, but he’ll be pushed by RB Kenneth Walker III from Michigan State.
Prediction: Alabama is currently a 28.5 point home favorite and they might cover, but they’ll definitely take the heart out of LSU by focusing on running the ball
2. Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, WV. Cowboys were cruising below the experts’ radar until losing to Iowa State in Week #8. Mountaineers have been inconsistent at 4-4 with two squality wins (Virginia Tech, Iowa State), a quality loss (Oklahoma), and two bad losses (Texas Tech and Baylor). Expecting the Cowboys to continue to run a balanced offense behind QB Spencer Sanders, and leaning heavily on their stout defense. Senior QB Jarret Doege will throw the ball all over the field for the Mountaineers, but he’ll also be pressured by an underrated defensive line for all 60 minutes.
Prediction: Oklahoma State is currently a 3.5 point road favorite and will win this game by 6 points
1. Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Kyle Field in College Station, TX. Both teams come into this matchup at 6-2 for the 2021 season and 3-1 in the SEC. First year Tigers coach Bryan Harsin vs. Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher, who is definitely keeping his eyes and ears on the job opening at LSU. Can’t get a feel for this game due to both teams playing well on one side of the ball for short stretches of time, but not putting together a full game. Aggies are pleased with backup QB Zach Calzada’s quality of play improving on weekly basis, but he’ll be running for this life this entire game. Tigers defense will add a big number to their season sacks total of twenty-two. If the Aggies want to stay in this game, TE Jalen Wydermyer needs to catch more than four passes and exceed 100 yards receiving.
Prediction: Texas A&M is currently a 3.5 point home favorite and this will be a very physical game, dominated by defense. Auburn wins by 3 points in walk-off fashion and they’ll starting thinking about the Iron Bowl on 11/27/21.
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #10 Upsets that might happen
5. CSU vs. Wyoming
Rams are typically one of the worst teams annually in the FBS, but they enter this game at a respectable 3-5, and are 2-2 in Mountain West conference games. Cowboys started the season 4-0, but have stumbled with a four game losing streak and are 0-4 in the Mountain West. Weather won’t be a factor with a 3:30 PM EDT kickoff from War Memorial Stadium in Laramie, WY. Rams are a current 3.5 point road favorite, but the Cowboys should keep the score close into the fourth quarter. Hopefully home field advantage kicks in late in this game, if enough fans are in attendance.
4. Army vs. Air Force
First service academy game of the season for Army, and the second game for Air Force. How many points did Army score against #9 Wake Forest in Week #8? Yes the Black Knights actually scored 56 points and ended up losing a score fest 70-56. Falcons will win the Commander-In-Chiefs trophy for 2021 with a victory today, due to having already beat Navy in Week #2. Service academy games are always competitive no matter where they play (Army, Navy, Air Force, or a neutral site). Falcons will have the homefield advantage due to playing at 6,621 feet above sea level and are current 2.5 point favorites. This game will be close for 60 minutes, since both teams run the ball almost every snap and are playing for pride.
3. Wake Forest vs. North Carolina
Demon Deacons are one of the feel good stories of the 2021 season. Enter this matchup at 8-0 and ranked #9 in the country. Head coach Dave Clawson is starting to get some media attention due to turning Wake Forest into a new force in the ACC conference. Clawson’s name will be mentioned with most head coach openings at the end of this season. Tar Heels had a surprising 2020 season at 8-4 and started the 2021 season ranked #10, but they were overrated. Two bad losses to Georgia Tech and Florida State have tarnished a season where the Tar Heels could have made some noise in the ACC. Somehow, someway North Carolina is currently 2.5 point home favorites and the Demon Deacons will win this game easily.
2. Tennessee vs. Kentucky
NCAA Division 1 basketball season starts on Tuesday (11/9/21) and this would be a great matchup. Volunteers seem to be playing with a new intensity under first year coach Josh Heupel. Four quality losses (Pittsburgh, Florida, Ole Miss and Alabama) against ranked teams is progress in Knoxville, TN compared to recent past seasons. Kentucky has had a breakout season by finally beating Florida and LSU, but stumble into this game with two straight losses. Mark Stoops is relevant again as a head coach with the Wildcats, and the AD should sign him to a medium length contract extension. Tennessee is currently a soft 1.0 road favorite and Kentucky should win this game by at least a touchdown.
1. USC vs. Arizona State
I’m reaching for a bottle of Pepto Bismol as my eyes look at the lower tier PAC-12 games of the week. USC has started a preliminary search for a new head coach, and if they move too slow will miss out on candidates due to numerous openings at the end of the 2021 season. This game would be great timing for Trojans OC Graham Harrell to show that he’s ready for more responsibility. Numerous rumors that Herm Edwards had significant program issues in Tempe, AZ during the offseason and the Sun Devils would implode during the regular season. Arizona State was cruising along as the class of the PAC-12 until ugly back to back losses to Utah and Washington State. Sun Devils are currently 9.0 home favorites, but I have a gut feeling the Trojans will actually show up in the desert this week and play hard.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #10 and try again in Week #11.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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