This article covers predicted NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 10 and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Fox is right around the corner on 11/11/21 and that means Week 10 is starting. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.
2021 Week 9 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 2/5 correct thanks to Kansas City and Pittsburgh
Top 5 upsets that could happen = 2/5 correct thanks to Atlanta and Arizona
Overall picks – 4/10 which is one standard deviation below the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 24/45 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 17/45 correct
Overall picks – 41/90 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
Russell Wilson returns at QB for the Seahawks for the first time since Week 5. Aaron Rodgers returns at QB for the Packers, for the first time since their defensive walk-off win against Arizona in Week 8. These teams have met in big regular season games and the post season numerous times since 2012. Fail Mary during Monday Night Football in 2012 that ended the NFL referee strike. Season opener on Thursday Night Football in 2014, when the Seahawks unveiled their Super Bowl 48 champions banner. 2014 NFC Championship game that still makes no sense with how the momentum shifted late in the fourth quarter. 2019 NFC Divisional playoff game and Davante Adams being uncoverable for 60 game time minutes.
Prediction: Packers are 3.5 point home favorites and will win by 7 points
4. New Orleans vs. Tennessee
Saints come limping into this matchup after losing to Atlanta on a walk off field goal in Week 9. Probably time for Sean Payton to figure out if Taysom Hill is ready to be the starting QB. Titans plugged Adrian Peterson into their RB slot due to Derrick Henry’s foot injury in Week 9, and they responded with a physical road win at the Rams. Julio Jones is the latest Titans player to hit the injured reserve list, but this team is on a roll with the next man up mentality. Mike Vrabel is an underrated head coach and now it makes sense why he caught some TDs during his playing days, despite being an LB.
Prediction: Titans are 3.0 point home favorites and will grind out a 4 point victory
3. Tampa Bay vs. Washington
Rematch of the 2020 NFC Wild Card Game that the Buccaneers won on the road 31-23. Tampa Bay has had two weeks to process their bad road loss to the Saints. Tom Brady continues to play at a high level (2650 passing yards and 25 TDs), but he needs some support from the RB corps and the entire defense. Washington Football Team was a darkhorse pick in early September 2021 to win the NFC East and advance deep in the playoffs. That prediction has been a mirage due to a current four game losing streak. Washington’s offense has been sputtering in the red zone and their defense is currently ranked 30th in the NFL by surrendering 389.4 yards per game. Buccaneers will be focused and confident at FedEx Field lining up on offense.
Prediction: Buccaneers are currently 9.5 point road favorites and will win by 10+ points
2. Kansas City vs. Las Vegas
Old fashioned AFC West matchup that looked like a Raiders division runaway three weeks ago, but has suddenly turned into a four team race. Chiefs have righted their ship with two straight victories and seem to be enjoying football again. Kansas City is slowly changing from a run and gun team that scores a ton of points, to a grinding possession team that keeps their own defense on the sidelines. Raiders were clicking on both sides of the ball and trending up in the AFC, until the Jon Gruden story broke in Week 5 and his subsequent resignation. QB Derek Carr continues to excel in leading this team through press conferences and on the field, but he needs a consistent running game to take some pressure off his shoulders. This game could be a score fest due to the two QBs, but will most likely be decided by turnovers and minimizing mistakes.
Prediction: Chiefs are currently a 2.5 point road favorite and will win by 3 points with a walk off field goal
1. Detroit vs. Pittsburgh
An 0-8 Lions team goes on the road to play the 5-3 Steelers, who are on a four game winning streak. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger will miss this game due to testing positive for Covid-19. That means backup QB Mason Rudolph gets a spot start and hopefully he doesn’t have flashbacks to the infamous ending of the 2019 game against Cleveland. Just hand the ball off to Najee Harris, distribute the ball to the WR and TE corps and don’t have any turnovers. Simply manage the game. Lions have been due for a win for most of the season, with two losses by four total points. Jared Goff is trying to learn a new offense after being traded from the Rams, but the offensive talent is simply lagging behind. Defense is playing hard for head coach Dan Campbell and they’ll break through with a victory soon, but not this week on the road.
Prediction: Steelers are current 6.5 point home favorites and will win by 10 points
NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 10 for Upsets that might happen
5. Philadelphia vs. Denver
Eagles are feast or famine on the scoreboard in 2021, due to typically losing close games and winning blowouts against lower tier teams. I’m still convinced Jalen Hurts is an NFL QB and will continue to blossom working with head coach Nick Sirianni. Philadephia also needs to be patient with their 2021 first round draft pick, WR DeVonta Smith. He’s going to progress quickly and is a mirror copy of Amari Cooper. Broncos looked like a possessed team in Dallas during Week 9. They played with a chip on their shoulder and took their frustration out on Dak Prescott. Still wondering why John Elway was on the Broncos sideline during the first half and not up in the owner’s box. Teddy Bridgewater could be the QB leader that Denver has been looking for since 2016, but can he string back to back good starts together? Broncos are currently 1.5 point home favorites, but are due for an emotional let down.
4. Atlanta vs. Dallas
Falcons are quietly back to being a 0.500 team and Matt Ryan is showing glimpses of his 2008 season with 2157 passing yards and 15 TDs. Atlanta needs to find a running game during their bus ride to Jerry’s World today, since the Cowboys want to erase their bad team performance against Denver in Week 9. Cowboys run defense is stout, but the Broncos exposed their secondary coverage holes for 60 minutes. Dallas will try to dictate the game clock by feeding the ball to RB Ezekiel Elliott for a ton of carries. Hopefully Dak Prescott rebounds with a strong passing game, or all of the talking heads are going to have a field day on Monday morning about the state of the Cowboys franchise. Dallas is currently an 8.0 point home favorite and should cover, but if Atlanta keeps this game close, watch for finger pointing and bad body language led by head coach Mike McCarthy.
3. Cleveland vs. New England
Intriguing AFC matchup of 5-4 teams at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA. Browns were relieved to wave goodbye to Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 9 and then blew out the Bengals 41-16. Not the first time in professional sports that a locker room cancer was removed and the team gets better immediately. Patriots are riding a three game winning streak, but they are 1-4 at home in 2021. Mac Jones continues to improve and impress as a rookie QB, but he needs to man up about twisting Brian Burns’ ankle in Week 9. Payback will be coming and hopefully Jones is ready for it. New England is currently a 2.5 point home favorite, but Baker Mayfield has already shown he loves playing well on the road and his team follows suit. This game is much watch viewing for all 60 minutes.
2. Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco
Rams were cruising along at 7-1 going into Week 9 and traded for Von Miller at LB from the Denver Broncos. All of the talking heads said “the Rams are all in for Super Bowl 56 or bust now.” Tennessee Titans than ran a road clinic on the Rams in their stadium with Adrian Peterson at RB and won 28-16. Rams responded going into Week 10 by signing new free agent WR Odell Beckham Jr., to offset the season ending knee injury to Robert Woods. All of the talking heads continue to say “Rams are definitely all in for the Super Bowl now.” If you look at the remaining eight regular season games on the Rams schedule, five are against tough teams (Green Bay, Arizona, Seattle, Minnesota, Baltimore) and three easy games (two against San Francisco and Jacksonville). Rams aren’t all in for Super Bowl 56, they are simply trying to keep pace with Arizona in the NFC West. 49ers are currently 3.5 point home underdogs, but don’t be surprised if the Rams are looking past this game and trying to get healthy.
1. Minnesota vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I keep going back to the upset prediction well with the Vikings. Minnesota has lost five games by a total of eighteen points, which equates to 3.6 points per game. In simpler terms the Vikings seem to always lose in 2021 by a field goal during the final play of the game. Chargers snapped their two game losing skid with a tight win over Philadelphia in Week 9, 27-24. Sportsbooks have correctly set this game line with the Chargers being a 3.0 point home favorite, due to the robust statistical analysis of each Vikings close loss. Minnesota will hang around for their entire visit to SoFi Stadium and may finally catch a lucky bounce or break to win a close game.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 10 and try again in Week 11.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas! Hope you enjoyed NFL Top 5 Exciting Games Week 10.
Want to find a highly rated beer near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.
