College Football Playoff National Championship Game Prediction 2021-2022

This article covers the predicted CFP National Championship Game to be played on 1/10/22. Bowl season officially started on 12/17/21 and 15 games were played by 12/25/21. 20 games were played during 12/27/21 – 1/4/22. CFP Semi-final games were played on 12/31/21. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.

2021 Bowl Games Part II and Semi-finals Picks Recap

Bowl Games Part II (12/27-1/4/22) – 12/20 correct thanks to Houston, Minnesota, Clemson, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Baylor, Kansas State. Four bowls were cancelled (Military Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Fenway Bowl, Arizona Bowl).

CFP Semi-finals played on 12/31/21 – 2/2 correct thanks to Alabama and Georgia

Overall picks – 14/22 which is one standard deviation above the mean

2021 All Picks Recap

Week 1 to Week 14 Top 5 games to watch – 43/65 correct

Week 1 to Week 14 Top 5 upsets that could happen – 22/65 correct

Top 10 conference championships – 7/10 correct

Bowl Games Part I – 9/15 correct

Bowl Games Part II – 12/20 correct

CFP Semi-finals – 2/2 correct

Overall picks – 95/177 correct which is one standard deviation above the median

College Football Playoff 2021-2022

1. National Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN: Georgia vs. Alabama

Overview

Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EST) from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. Heavyweight matchup between the two best teams in the SEC, Georgia and Alabama. Rematch of the 2021 SEC Championship Game that the Crimson Tide won 41-24 on 12/4/21. Bulldogs are trying to win their third national title (1942, 1980). Crimson Tide are trying to win their nineteenth national title (1925, 1926, 1930, 1934, 1941, 1961, 1964, 1965, 1973, 1978, 1979, 1992, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2020). Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has led his Bulldogs to the CFP national championship game for the second time since 2017. Alabama head coach Nick Saban has his squad in the CFP national championship game for the sixth time.

Offense

Georgia enters this game averaging 448.5 yards of offense per game (253.9 passing yards, 194.6 rushing yards) and 39.0 points per game. Alabama has been clicking on offense since November 2021 by averaging 494.6 yards per game (336.0 passing yards, 158.6 rushing yards) and 41.9 points per game. Based on a simple numerical analysis, the Crimson Tide should be 2.9 point favorites based on team offense statistics only.

Bulldogs are lead by senior QB Stetson Bennett (2638 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD). Backup QB JT Daniels hasn’t been able to crack the starting lineup since being injured in Week 1 against Clemson. Running game relies on five RBs, with junior Zamir White leading the charge with 772 rushing yards and 10 TDs. Receiving corps goes seven players deep and is highlighted by freshman TE Brock Bowers (846 receiving yards, 12 TDs).

Crimson Tide have the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner at QB, sophomore Bryce Young (4503 passing yards, 46 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs). Senior RB Brian Robinson Jr. carries the running load with 1275 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs, 2 receiving TDs. Junior WR Jameson Williams leads a seven player deep receiving corps with 1507 receiving yards and 15 TDs. Ohio State is still wondering why they let Williams enter the transfer portal after the 2020 season. Alabama will adjust on the fly due to losing WR#2 John Mettchie III to injury during the SEC Championship Game.

Advantage – Alabama due to having more offensive weapons, significant depth and the best college QB of 2021.

Defense

Georgia has had a memorable season due to the eye popping statistics their defense has produced so far in 2021. 253.9 total yards allowed per game (172.2 passing yards and 81.7 rushing yards against). Was the stingiest defense in the county by only allowing 9.5 points per game. Keep in mind those statistics were absolutely thrashed by the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama had a solid season defensively by allowing 306.1 yards per game (223.3 passing yards and 82.8 rushing yards against). Allowed 20.2 points per game.

Bulldogs have a monster defensive line led by senior NT Jordan Davis. Linebacking corps is very sound in run support, underneath pass coverage and making textbook tackles. Senior DB Derion Kendrick (4 INTs) leads a secondary that has locked teams down using a mixture of man-to-man and zone coverages. When Georgia is playing fast and with the lead, their defensive unit seems to have 12-to-13 players on the field.

Crimson Tide has an underrated defense led by LBs Henry To’oTo’o (4.0 sacks, 105 tackles) and Will Anderson Jr. (17.5 sacks, 97 tackles). Defensive line and linebackers shift and change fronts on every down to keep their opponent guessing. Secondary has some holes, but they finished with 15 INTs and 2 returned for TDs.

Advantage: Georgia due to their body of work in 2021 and ability to control a game from the opening series.

Special Teams

Georgia has had a solid kicking game with junior Jack Podlesny converting 68/69 extra points and making 20/25 field goal attempts. Those statistics equals 128 points on the scoreboard. Senior punter Jake Camarda has averaged 47.0 yards per punt, with limited action due to an explosive Bulldogs offense. Alabama junior kicker Will Reichard has converted 71/72 extra points and made 18/23 field goal attempts. Punter Jack Martin is 1/1 on kicking field goals, which converts to 128 points on the scoreboard. Freshman James Burnip has been decent as the new punter for the Crimson Tide by averaging 39.3 yards per punt, with limited action due to the efficient Alabama offense.

Advantage: Even due to identical special teams points for the 2021 season and not relying on their punters for field position due to long drives that typically end in TDs or FGs.

Coaching

Kirby Smart was the defensive coordinator at Alabama from 2008-2015 and learned a significant amount of information on how to run a competitive and successful program. Became the head coach at Georgia in 2016 and has quickly turned the Bulldogs into one of the country’s elite teams. Smart is another branch of the Nick Saban coaching tree and has a very bright coaching future in front of him.

Nick Saban has been the head coach at Alabama since 2008. Won his first national championship at LSU in 2003 and has added six titles at Alabama in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017 and 2020. Saban is simply the best coach that the college football ranks has ever seen to date, and he keeps adding to his legacy.

Advantage: Alabama due to having the most forward thinking and prepared head coach at the college level and his assistants are the best staff in the country every year.

Intangibles for Georgia

Alabama currently leads this series 42-25-4, including winning the last seven meetings. Current winning streak started in 2008 and it includes the 2018 National Championship Game that went to OT and the 2018 SEC Championship Game that was decided on the final possession. Kirby Smart is 0-4 coaching against Nick Saban and may start to feel a little snake bit in trying to topple his mentor and the GOAT. It took Luke Skywalker three epic movies to finally defeat Darth Vader and bring balance to the galaxy. Now that Star Wars has been extended to eleven movies and counting, Smart may need to find some new Jedi training until Saban decides to retire. All of the talking heads and experts this week are clearly stating the Bulldogs are due to beat the Crimson Tide and reach the mountaintop of college football.

Before that outcome potentially happens, consider the following historical facts:

Intangibles for Alabama

Alabama has won six national titles in six differing fashions under head coach Nick Saban. Beat Texas to cap the 2009 season by grinding out a 16 point victory. Shut out a deep and talented LSU squad to finish the 2011 season, by never letting the Tigers past midfield. Dominated Notre Dame in all phases of the game to close out the 2012 season. Used a perfectly timed onside kick, two TE bubble screen patterns and a dynamic kickoff return to beat Clemson in 2015. Made a QB change at halftime of the 2018 National Championship Game to claw their way back into the game and ultimately win on a long TD pass in OT over Georgia. Physically dominated a depleted yet fully rested Ohio State roster to complete the 2020 season, and leave no doubt the Crimson Tide isn’t just an elite program, they are a living dynasty.

When Alabama has lost in the CFP National Championship Game (2017 and 2019) to Clemson, they either became one dimensional on offense due to injuries. Or were simply outclassed by a freshman QB named Trevor Lawrence and got gashed by Travis Etienne. Both of those games weren’t a fluke and Saban learned more about his program on those nights than most fans and experts realize.

Game Prediction

Georgia is currently a 2.5 point favorite and this will be an incredible game pitting the two best teams of 2021 playing for the national title. Both defenses will make several momentum changing plays and the stouter unit in the red zone will have the upper hand. Georgia’s QB tandem is good but not great for the biggest stage in college football, whereas Bryce Young thrives in the spotlight. Alabama wins in walk-off fashion 30-27. Nick Saban will finally be compared to John Wooden as the best coach in NCAA sports history.

Same bat time, same bat channel in one week. I’ll review the results of the CFP National Championship game and summarize the season picks on 1/17/22.

Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!

Want to find highly rated beers near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.