NFL Super Bowl 56 Prediction 2021-2022

This article covers predicting Super Bowl 56 to be played on 2/13/22. The final game of the 2021-2022 NFL season kicks off on 2/13/22 and that means a new champion is about to be crowned. Time to continue with a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of Covid-19 impacts, no fans in the stands and a surprising post season.

2021-2022 Playoff Picks Recap

Conference Championships Round – 1/2 correct thanks to the Los Angeles Rams

2021 All Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 55/90 correct

Top 5 upsets that could happen -37/90 correct

Wildcard Round – 5/6 correct

Divisional Round – 1/4 correct

Conference Championships Round – 1/2 correct

Overall picks – 99/192 correct which is right at the mean

How Both Teams Got Here

Early evening game (6:30 PM EST) from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA on 2/13/22. Rams advanced to this game after beating the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game (20-17). Los Angeles Rams have won eight of their last nine games. Bengals advanced to this game after beating the Chiefs in OT in the AFC Championship Game (27-24). Cincinnati has won six of their last seven games. Teams didn’t play each other this season and haven’t met in the playoffs until today. Bengals lead the historical matchups with an 8-6 head-to-head record starting in 1972, with the last meeting played on 10/27/19.

Offense

Rams enter this game averaging 372.1 yards of offense per game (273.1 passing yards, 99.0 rushing yards) and scoring 27.1 points per game. Bengals have been a mirror image of the Rams by averaging 361.5 yards of offense (259.0 passing yards, 102.5 rushing yards) and scoring 27.1 points per game. After completing a simple numerical analysis, the betting line should be 0.0 points based on team offensive statistics only.

Rams are led by QB Matthew Stafford (4886 passing yards, 41 passing TDs). Seems like a lifetime ago that starting QB Jared Goff was traded to the Lions for Stafford, and all of the talking heads were wondering if Stafford had any gas left in the tank. Running game relies on a two pronged attack of Sony Michel and Cam Akers. Michel carried the team load for the second half of the regular season and Akers has definitely provided a post season spark. Receiving corps goes five players deep and is highlighted by all-world WR Cooper Kupp (1947 receiving yards, 16 TDs).

Bengals are led by second year QB Joe Burrow (4611 passing yards, 34 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs). Burrow has rebounded nicely from a season ending knee injury late in the 2020 NFL regular season. Running game is paced by two Oklahoma Sooner alums, Joe Mixon (1205 rushing yards, 16 total TDs) and Samaje Perrine. Receiving corps goes four players deep and has two deep threats, rookie Ja’Marr Chase (1455 receiving yards, 13 TDs) and Tee Higgins (1091 receiving yards, 6 TDs). The on-field chemistry between Burrow and Chase has picked up without missing a beat from their playing days at LSU in 2019.

Advantage – Cincinnati due to the big three (Burrows, Mixon, Chase) seemingly always converting critical third downs in the playoffs and ability to stretch the field vertically on every down.

Defense

Rams have had a memorable season due to being the #2 ranked team defense in the NFL during the 2021 regular season. 274.7 total yards allowed per game (220.7 passing yards and a stingy 54.0 rushing yards against). Ranked #3 during the regular season for allowing 18.3 points per game. Los Angeles Rams have arguably the best defensive line in the league due to Aaron Donald (12.5 sacks) and a front seven highlighted by LBs Leonard Floyd and Von Miller. Secondary has a tendency to bend but not break, and they rely heavily on CB Jalen Ramsey to shut down the opposing team’s leading receiver. Basic defensive formations that rush the QB, have sound tackling techniques and produce timely turnovers. Nothing wrong with that strategy and approach.

Bengals had a statistically sound regular season on defense with 371.0 total yards allowed per game (243.7 passing yards and 127.3 rushing yards against). Ranked #5 during the regular season for allowing 19.7 points per game. Defensive line play has been led by Trey Hendrickson (14.0 sacks). LB corps have been solid with tackling and covering RBs out of the backfield. Secondary is led by CBs Mike Helton and Eli Apple ( 4 INTs combined). Bengals disguise their double coverage formations better than most NFL squads and that was the difference maker against Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game. After completing a simple numerical analysis, the betting line should have the Rams favored by 1.4 points based on team defense statistics only.

Advantage: Los Angeles Rams due to their ability to impact every play at the line of scrimmage. If the Bengals get behind in the fourth quarter and abandon the run, sacks will come in bunches.

Special Teams

Matt Gay has been consistent kicking FGs and XPs for the Rams this season during both the regular season and postseason. Converted 39/43 field goal attempts and 57/58 extra point attempts. Those statistics equal 174 points on the scoreboard. Johnny Hekker is averaging a pedestrian 44.2 yards per punt, but has a tendency to keep the ball in play and not relying on touchbacks.

Evan McPherson has converted 40/45 field goal attempts and 50/52 extra point points for the Bengals during the regular season and postseason. Those statistics equal 170 points on the scoreboard. More importantly, McPherson has converted back-to-back walk off road playoff victories with a 52 yard FG against the Titans and a 31 yard FG against the Chiefs. Kevin Huber is averaging 46.4 yards per punt this season and 34% of his punts end up inside the 20 yard line to help flip field position.

Advantage: Cincinnati due to McPherson having ice water in his veins during their playoff run and a more consistent punting game for better field position.

Coaching

Sean McVay has been the head coach of the Rams since 2017, but he paid his dues with the Washington Redskins organization from 2010-2016. Started the current NFL trend of hiring younger head coaches that rely on analytics and relate to players on an individual basis. Adjusts his coaching staff every year, due to typically losing his top assistants to other teams with head coaching spots being open. OC Kevin O’connell and DC Raheem Morris were given time and guidance by McVay early in the 2021 season, to get the squad to a higher performance level. That approach has paid off since early December 2021. Second time McVay has coached in the Super Bowl, after losing to the Patriots in Super Bowl 53 (13-3).

Zac Taylor has been the head coach of the Bengals since 2019. Was on the Los Angeles Rams coaching staff in 2017 (assistant WRs coach) and 2018 (QBs coach). Taylor and McVay know each other well due to the Rams Super Bowl 53 run during the 2018 NFL season. Taylor had a bumpy start with the Bengals in 2019, due to a regular season record of 2-14. Improved slightly to 4-11-1 in 2020, with Burrow as a rookie QB after being the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Taylor officially turned the Bengals franchise around after winning a tightly contested AFC North race in 2021 at 10-7. Bengals are fearless in the playoffs and aren’t intimidated by the opposing team, no matter where the game is played.

Advantage: Los Angeles Rams by a whisker due to McVay’s coaching experience in Super Bowl 53 and being a coaching mentor to Taylor from 2017-2018. This will be an intriguing chess match as this game unfolds due to similar offensive game plans.

Intangibles for Los Angeles Rams

Rams are making their fifth appearance in the Super Bowl and have a 1-3 record. Won Super Bowl 34 over Tennessee (23-16). Lost Super Bowl 14 to Pittsburgh (31-19), Super Bowl 36 to New England (20-17) and Super Bowl 53 to New England (13-3). Took a big calculated risk trading for Stafford during the 2021 offseason and it immediately paid off. Made a flurry of mid-season trades and free agent signings (Sony Michel, Odell Beckham Jr., Von Miller) that took time to mesh in the locker room and on the field, but are now key contributors. Will be playing on their home field (SoFi Stadium) as the visiting team, which is the same scenario Tampa Bay used to win Super Bowl 55.

Intangibles for Cincinnati

Bengals are making their third appearance in the Super Bowl and have an 0-2 record. Lost Super Bowl 16 to San Francisco (26-21) and Super Bowl 23 to San Francisco (20-16). Back in the Super Bowl for the first time in 33 years. The big three (Burrow, Mixon, Chase) seem to be playing the game at a difference pace and at a high technical level that their opponents can’t match. Bengals are a fearless team and definitely belong in this game. Are they a team of destiny as some experts have been predicting this week? Or another notch in the Rams quest to own the city of Los Angeles?

Game Prediction

Los Angeles Rams are currently a 4.0 point “road” favorite and this will be a close game for 60 minutes. Rams need to utilize Michel and Akers to wear down the DL and LBs of the Bengals. Bengals will have some costly turnovers due to the Rams constant DL pressure. Final score will come down to which QB has the ball last and can move his team into FG position for a walk off win. Banking on Stafford and Kupp to make one or two big plays on the final drive and the Rams win 27-24.

Due to having worked together from 2017-2018, it would be a Hollywood moment for McVay and Taylor to share a similar handshake, hug and conversation after the game ends as Sam Wyche and Bill Walsh did after Super Bowl 23.

Same bat time, same bat channel in one week. I’ll review the results of Super Bowl 56 and summarize the season picks on 2/20/22.

Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!

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