This article covers the most exciting week 1 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Labor Day is right around the corner and that means college football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2021 Season Recap
Georgia defeated Alabama 33-18 in the national championship game held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. Kirby Smart won his first national championship as head coach of the Bulldogs, by beating his former boss and mentor, Nick Saban. The victory was Georgia’s third national title in school history (1942, 1980, 2021). Cincinnati and Michigan were the other participating schools in the four team CFP. Thirty-five bowl games were played and five were cancelled due to Covid-19 issues. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama Crimson Tide, won the Heisman Trophy with 4872 passing yards, 47 passing touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns.
2022 Off-Season News and Notes
UCLA Bruins and the USC Trojans were formally approved to join the Big Ten in 2024. This second large shift in power conferences, will most likely lead to a top tier of forty teams competing for the national title. All remaining schools in lower tiers will play in the historical bowl games. SEC and Big Ten are leaving the rest of the Big 5 conferences behind.
Second year of the transfer portal has caused free agency to be in full effect across the country. NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) for all high school and college players, has caused recruiting and transferring to be a steel cage wrestling match with no guidelines or rules being applied (I’m talking about Texas A&M and head coach Jimbo Fisher).
Since the players are now allowed to move around on an annual basis, numerous big name coaches decided to follow suit (Lincoln Riley, Brian Kelly, Mario Cristobal, Billy Napier). There will be a ton of background stories and future implications during the 2022 season, that it’ll be hard to keep track as a casual fan. Hopefully the NCAA wakes up and tries to put some guardrails in place and enforce them.
Week 1 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) on 9/1/22 from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Backyard Brawl resumes for the first time since the 2011 season. Eleven year gap was caused by the Mountaineers joining the Big 12 conference and the Panthers moving to the ACC. Pittsburgh leads this series 61-40-3 and they still rock one of the best uniforms in all of college football. Neal Brown has an underwhelming head coaching record of 17-18 as he enters his fourth season at West Virginia. Pat Narduzzi has been at Pittsburgh since 2015, and his top notch coaching staff will quietly fill big holes at QB and WR during this game. Panthers are always entertaining to watch every week.
Prediction: Pittsburgh wins by 9 points and enters the ACC race with Clemson on the horizon
4. Oregon vs. Georgia
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/3/22 from Atlanta, Georgia. PAC-12 vs. SEC matchup is typically an SEC blowout and all factors are pointing that way. Ducks quit during the last month of the 2021 season, due to the daily rumors of head coach Mario Cristobal heading to Miami, which he did. Oregon’s new head coach, Dan Lanning, was the defensive coordinator for Georgia in 2021. That Bulldogs squad was a once in a generation defensive unit, that helped Georgia win the national title game. Lanning will have the Ducks motivated to play hard, but the Bulldogs are too deep and too fast. QB Stetson Bennett will lead a smash mouth running game and play action passing game to compliment another stingy defense.
Prediction: Georgia sputters for 30 minutes and then gets in a groove play calling wise to win by 14 points
3. Cincinnati vs. Arkansas
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/3/22 from Fayetteville, Arkansas. Cincinnati had a magical 2021 season, due to getting to the CFP from a non-Power 5 conference (American Athletic Conference). With the emergence of two super conferences (SEC and Big Ten), an underdog run like that will probably never be replicated. Head coach Luke Fickell has a juggernaut squad with the Bearcats, and they are competitive on a national scale. Arkansas was streaky in 2021 and did rebound after a mid-season three game losing streak. Head coach Sam Pittman has the Razorbacks headed in the right direction, but they are still not used to being on a big stage environment and embracing it.
Prediction: Cincinnati is currently a 6.5 point road underdog and their experience will lead to a 10 point victory
2. Utah vs. Florida
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Gainesville, Florida. Kyle Whittingham has quietly built a PAC-12 team that is consistently good and can play with any team in the country. If they could have covered Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 2022 Rose Bowl, they would be in the national title conversation for this season. Whittingham has taken all of the nuggets of coaching wisdom he received from Urban Meyer and applied them correctly. He loves coaching in Salt Lake City, Utah and is a quiet but effective leader.
What has happened to the Florida Gators since the 2010 season? Too many head coaches that didn’t pan out, lost recruiting battles, moments of brilliance, followed by a cleat thrown during a big third down defensive stop. The list goes on and on. New head coach Billy Napier has the swagger, after an impressive four year tenure at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, going 40-12. Gators lost their starting QB, Emory Jones, to the transfer portal in Spring 2022. An entire program culture change takes time and energy. Hopefully Napier is given a chance to do that.
Prediction: Utah runs a ball control offense and wins by 8 points
1. Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Primetime kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Columbus, Ohio. Lee Corso of the ESPN GameDay crew will be in seventh heaven for his weekly mascot reveal selection. His first mascot reveal was Brutus Buckeye in 1996, and he’s enamored with the Fighting Irish Leprechaun. Despite the strong leadership attitude that emanates from Notre Dame’s new head coach, Marcus Freeman, Ohio State will be playing a ton of pitch and catch for 60 full minutes due to the quality and depth of football players on their roster.
Prediction: Will be a competitive game for 30 minutes and then Ohio State pulls away for a 21 point win
Week 1 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Penn State vs. Purdue
Nittany Lions stumbled in 2021 to a 7-6 record, despite losing five games by a combined twenty-one points. Head coach James Franklin was rumored to be headed to USC, then LSU, then maybe the NFL. Penn State and Franklin agreed to a ten year contract extension, but this team seems ripe for a major regression due to a suddenly robust Big Ten conference. Purdue had a breakout 2021 season going 9-4, including signature wins over Iowa, Michigan State and Tennessee. Need to reload at WR, due to David Bell heading to the NFL a year early. Game will be close for 60 minutes and the Boilermakers know how to finish close games, despite being a 3.5 point underdog at home.
4. TCU vs. Colorado
Horned Frogs had a rocky 2021 season, due to the sudden resignation of head coach Gary Patterson after eight games. Patterson was the head coach at TCU for twenty-three seasons. Finished 5-7 and have been lapped in the Big 12 conference by the other schools. New head coach Sonny Dykes has his work cut out for him in 2022.
Hope always starts in Boulder, Colorado with every new season. Alumni and Buff fans still point to the golden decade of 1985-1996. A ton of bad decisions since then has caused Colorado to become a cellar dweller in the suddenly vulnerable PAC-12. An excellent article was written earlier this year, that chronicles the Buffs fall from a perennial top 10 team to mediocrity during the last twenty-five years. Year three of the Karl Dorrell era starts late on Friday night (9/2/22) in Boulder, and the Buffs have a slim chance to send the faithful fans in Folsom Field home with a victory, despite being 13.5 point underdogs.
3. NC State vs. East Carolina
Wolfpack had a solid 2021 season going 9-3 and then were hosed in the Holiday Bowl due to UCLA withdrawing hours before kickoff due to Covid-19 issues. Dave Doeren became a household name in 2021 after NC State beat Clemson in Week #4. Devin Leary returns at QB, Jordan Houston at RB and Thayer Thomas at WR. Wolfpack will be geared up to start the 2022 season, but the ECU Pirates always enjoy a tough season opener. Beat Virginia Tech on opening weekend in 2008, and how can you not root for a school that has Jeff Blake (QB) and Chris Johnson (RB) as fantasy football alumni legends? East Carolina is currently a 11.5 point underdog, but they’ll push the Wolfpack for at least three quarters.
2. Houston vs. UTSA
Both teams had great campaigns in 2021, finishing at 12-2. Houston Cougars only lost to Texas Tech and Cincinnati. UTSA Roadrunners were ranked in the Top 25 for the majority of the season. Both teams run spread offenses, so the ebb and flow of this game will be similar to the Golden State Warriors fast break offense. UTSA is stout at home and wants to make a statement that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. Houston needs to forget Lee Corso’s on air gaffe from 2011 and focus on winning a season opener. This game will be a track meet with a ton of points scored. Leaning towards the Roadrunners due to being a home underdog by 4.0 points.
1. Boise State vs. Oregon State
Hard to believe this was the biggest game of Week #3 during the 2010 college football season, when Boise State was trying to crash the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) party. Broncos beat the Beavers 37-24 in 2010, overcoming numerous mistakes and turnovers. Boise State continued on cruise control towards the BCS title game, until the Nevada Wolfpack beat them 34-31 in OT on 11/27/10. Helped that Nevada had a QB no one had heard of yet, Colin Kaepernick.
Oregon State had a bounce back year in 2021, finishing 7-6 and ending with a loss to Utah State in the LA Bowl. Now the Beavers are dealing with a crumbling PAC-12, and wondering if their big brother, Oregon Ducks, will leave the conference without them. Boise State were road warriors in 2021 due to winning four out of six games away from their home gaudy blue turf. Despite being 2.5 point underdogs, the Broncos find a way to win a close game.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #2
- How many more games will Scott Frost coach at Nebraska before an inevitable firing occurs? Current over/under is five games.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #1?
- Anyone tired of Rick Neuheisel on CBS yet? That guitar needs to go.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #1 and try again in week #2.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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