This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video is right around the corner on 9/29/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.
2022 Week 3 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 1/5 correct thanks to the Los Angeles Rams
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 4/5 correct thanks to Tennessee, Denver, Dallas and Atlanta
Overall picks – 5/10 correct which is right at the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 7/15 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 11/15 correct
Overall picks – 18/30 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Washington vs. Dallas
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on 10/2/22. Cowboys currently lead this series 75-47-2. Commanders beat Jacksonville in Week 1 (28-22), only to be followed up with back-to-back losses to Detroit and Philadelphia. Eagles made Washington look like a bad college football team for sixty minutes. New starting QB Carson Wentz has gotten off to a consistent start, due to throwing for 861 passing yards and 8 TDs. WRs Terry McLaurin (235 receiving yards, 1 TD) and Curtis Samuel (181 receiving yards, 2 TDs) have benefited with Wentz at QB. Commanders are in bad need of a solid running game, since Antonio Gibson (124 rushing yards, 2 TDs) isn’t ready to be a feature back.
Cowboys have turned their season around with close wins over Cincinnati and the New York Giants. Backup QB Cooper Rush has filled in admirably for injured QB Dak Prescott. RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Troy Pollard continue to move the chains when needed. WRs CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown have also learned that by leading time of possession, can translate directly to wins. Maybe Mike McCarthy is starting to coach this team the correct way. Time will tell, because this squad is always a weird reality show on a weekly basis.
Prediction: Dallas is a 3.0 point home favorite and they grind out a 7 point win
4. Buffalo vs. Baltimore
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland on 10/2/22. Bills are still trying to figure out how they lost to Miami in Week 3 (21-19). New offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, is an internet sensation due to his sky box reaction. Guessing that all Buffalo receivers have been running numerous drills this week, on how to get out of bounds to stop the game clock. Defensive unit will rebound despite losing FS Micah Hyde for the season, and dealing with injuries to CB Tre’Davious White and CB Christian Benford. This squad is too deep and too talented to be hungover from a close loss to the Dolphins.
Ravens are sky high after beating New England in Week 3 (37-26). QB Lamar Jackson continues to impersonate Superman due to throwing for 749 passing yards and 10 TDs. Jackson has also ru)shed for 243 yards and 3 TDs. Eleven players have caught at least one pass in three games, which is masking the roster’s lack of RB depth. Strange statistics of the week is the Ravens defense is allowing a league worst 458.0 yards per game and 25.7 points. Welcome to the 2022 NFL season.
Prediction: Buffalo makes minor adjustments on both sides of the ball and wins by 8 points
3. New England vs. Green Bay
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin on 10/2/22. Now things are getting interesting in Week #3. Patriots have to find a way to cobble together an offense, with starting QB Mac Jones being ruled out with a severe high ankle sprain. Due to the sudden depth of the AFC East (Buffalo, Miami), New England needs to look at their schedule for Weeks 5-11 (Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, New York Jets, Indianapolis, New York Jets), to take this season one week at a time and trying to gel on defense. Head coach Bill Belichick likes challenges and he definitely has one to solve quickly.
Packers are starting to click with two straight wins over Chicago and Tampa Bay. RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are gobbling up serious yardage on long scoring drives. New WR corp is starting to click with QB Aaron Rodgers. Just a matter of time until Green Bay is playing a simple throw and catch offense that most teams can’t match up with. The more things change, the more things stay the same.
Prediction: Green Bay is a healthy 9.5 point home favorite and they cover due to winning by 13 points
2. Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay
Primetime evening kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on 10/2/22. Rematch of Super Bowl 55 that Tampa Bay won easily (31-9). Chiefs gagged in Week 3 losing at Indianapolis (20-17). Buccaneers were lifeless in a 14-12 loss to Green Bay. Both teams will be fired up for Sunday Night Football (SNF). Not to mention Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady has to be better than the last time they played.
Before I forget, NBC started to hype this game during their SNF broadcast on 9/25/22. A thirty second commercial featuring Beck covering the song “Old Man”, written by Neil Young. An apropos song for comparing Mahomes to Brady, but why did Cris Collinsworth have to comment on that during the post-game show? Less Cris and more Mike Tirico please. This game will be entertaining for all sixty minutes and enjoy the formal passing of the QB torch from the GOAT to The Grim Reaper.
Prediction: Air tight game and the Chiefs win by 4 points to get back on track in the AFC West
1. Arizona vs. Carolina
Lock of the week is a late afternoon kickoff (4:05 PM EST) on 10/2/22, from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Cardinals are on a lose, win, lose game pattern so they are going to win this week on the road. QB Kyler Murray needs to find the end zone with more of his passes. Hoping he quits forcing the ball to TE Zach Ertz and lets it fly to WRs Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch. Team running game is improving, but Arizona only averages 105.3 yards per game, which is a below average statistic in the stacked NFC West.
Panthers just have a weird vibe and aura to their squad so far this season. Lost close games to Cleveland and the New York Giants in Weeks 1 and 2, followed up with an eight point victory over New Orleans. Pretty much the QB Baker Mayfield and RB Christian McCaffrey show on offense, with an occasional big play from WR Laviska Shenault Jr. Head coach Matt Rhule is mentioned for most head coach openings in the NFL and college, which is surprising due to having a 11-25 record in Carolina since 2020. Currently averaging 20.7 points per game on offense and allowing 19.7 points on defense. Something has to change to get a true balance.
Prediction: Arizona is currently a 1.5 point road underdog and will ride RB James Connor to a 9 point victory
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Miami vs. Cincinnati
Miami and Philadelphia are the last two undefeated teams in the NFL as the 2022 season enters Week 4. That’s not a typo or misprint. Welcome back to parity NFL fans. Dolphins showed some onions in Week 3 by beating Buffalo (21-19). Defense, special teams and one costly turnover caused Miami to slow down the red hot Bills offense. QB Tua Tagovailoa is leading the NFL in QBR at 82.8, and he’s thrown for 925 yards and 8 TDs. Dolphins will need Tua to run the offense and continue to get the ball into WR Tyreek Hill’s hands. The rest of the game plan will take care of itself. Bengals seem to be treating the regular season as a practice session so far. Cincinnati knows they are skilled and a gifted team, but they can’t finish games on defense. Also struggle against teams that are as good as them or better. Bengals do get some bonus points for their top notch color rush uniforms and helmets they’ll wear for this game. Miami is the real deal so far this season, and they won’t be intimidated being a 3.5 point road underdog heading into The Jungle at Paycor Stadium.
4. Denver vs. Las Vegas
Raiders lead the series 69-54-2 and swept the season series in 2020 and 2021. Broncos looked inefficient and disorganized on offense yet again in Week 3 against San Francisco. If QB Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t step out of the end zone for a safety, the panic button would officially be pressed in the Mile High City. Run the damn ball in the red zone for TDs, try vertical passing routes before the third quarter, and give some OL help for QB Russell Wilson. That’s an easy game plan. Las Vegas is 0-3 due to losing by a combined total of 13 points. Bad luck karma may have been passed from the Vikings of 2021 to the Raiders of 2022, if these close losses continue to pile up. Old fashioned AFC West rivalry will get both of these teams cranked up. Broncos will be motivated to make Josh McDaniels look inept as a head coach yet again, despite being 2.5 point road underdogs.
3. Minnesota vs. New Orleans
International NFL Series continues in 2022 with the Vikings playing the Saints at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. Kickoff is early at 9:30 AM EDT on 10/2/22. Minnesota is 2-1 due to beating their NFC North rivals, Green Bay and Detroit. QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for 758 passing yards and 5 TDs. RB Dalvin Cook looks healthy and is starting to find second gear. WR Justin Jefferson has cooled down significantly since his monster game in Week 1, with teams now using double coverage on every passing down. New Orleans is ready for a true road game, after forgetting to show up against Tampa Bay and Carolina. QB Jameis Winston has been held out of practice for the majority of the week, due to back/ankle/hip injuries. If he plays in London, thankfully crab legs aren’t served at most pubs and restaurants. Saints will try to unleash their three headed monster at WR (Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave), and hang in this game as a 2.5 point underdog.
2. Tennessee vs. Indianapolis
Key AFC South matchup to keep pace with the first place Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes that is not another typo or misprint. Titans got off the mat in Week 3, with a gut check win over Las Vegas (24-22). Next four weeks can be easy layups, if Tennessee doesn’t turn the ball over and gets their defense off the field after third downs. RB Derrick Henry is starting to warm up and should have another big workload this week. Colts shocked the NFL in Week 3, by beating the high flying Kansas City Chiefs (20-17). Indianapolis used a ball control offense and an efficient passing game by QB Matt Ryan, to catch the Chiefs napping. Until stud RB Jonathan Taylor starts taking over ballgames, the Colts will be the biggest tease in the NFL during the 2022 season. Colts are a strong 3.5 point home favorite, but the Titans will hang around into the fourth quarter if they take care of the football.
1. Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco
Rematch of the 2021 NFC Championship Game, won by the Los Angeles Rams (20-17). QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp are starting to work the rust out of the offense, after a short off-season due to winning Super Bowl 56. RBs Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. seem to be in agreement, with a running game by committee approach for the early part of the season. Rams need to establish a respectable running attack, or they won’t come close to repeating as Super Bowl champs. San Francisco outplayed Denver on the road in Week 3, and if it wasn’t for an ill-timed safety, they’d be riding a two game winning streak. QB Jimmy Garoppolo will lean on WR Deebo Samuel and RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to slow down the Los Angeles Rams top tier DL and LBs. Both of these teams have a tendency to battle to a standstill at the talent positions and a role player ends up making the play of the game. Rams are a confident 1.5 point road underdog and they’ll be in this game to the final snap.
Storylines Heading into Week 5
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 4? Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 4?
- Are Monday Night Football fans watching Joe Buck and Troy Aikman or the Manning Brothers?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 4 and try again in Week 5.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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