This article covers the most exciting week 7 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 6 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 thanks to USC, NC State, Tennessee, Kansas State and Alabama
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 thanks to UCLA and North Carolina
Overall picks – 7/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 25/30
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 11/30
Overall picks – 36/60 which is one standard deviation above the mean
Week 7 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Penn State vs. Michigan
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 10/15/22 from Ann Arbor, Michigan. Hard to believe that Penn State joined the Big Ten twenty-nine years ago in 1993 and then lost to Michigan at home (21-13). Michigan leads the series 15-10 and won the last meeting in 2021 (21-17). Nittany Lions enter this matchup at 5-0, with two close wins over Purdue and Northwestern. Next three weeks (Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State) will define how Penn State does or does not impact the Big Ten standings and potentially the CFP. QB Sean Clifford has been a decent game manager to date (1030 passing yards, 9 TDs). Freshman RB Nicholas Singleton has been a diamond in the rough (463 rushing yards, 5 TDs).
Wolverines had a close game against Maryland in Week 4 (34-27) and their other five victories have been a cakewalk. QB J.J. McCarthy (1152 passing yards, 9 TDs) has two offensive weapons at his disposal. RB Blake Corum (735 rushing yards, 11 TDs) and WR Ronnie Bell (390 receiving yards, 1 TD) will definitely continue to move the chains. Mid-tier offense is averaging 458.7 yards and 43.0 points per game. Top tier defense is allowing 247.0 yards and 11.3 points per game. Media will focus on the head coaching matchup between James Franklin and Jim Harbaugh.
Prediction: Michigan is a steady 7.0 point home favorite at the Big House. Game will be decided by field position and the turnover battle. Wolverines win a tight game by 6 points.
4. Alabama vs. Tennessee
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/15/22 from Knoxville, Tennessee. Crimson Tide were somewhat lucky to beat Texas A&M in Week 6 (24-20). Crimson Tide fans will quickly point out that QB Bruce Young didn’t play, offensive unit had four turnovers and missed two field goals. Most weeks that would be a loss, but LB Will Anderson Jr. and gang made sure that didn’t happen. RB Jahmyr Gibbs is definitely a work horse (206 rushing yards in Week 5, 154 rushing yards in Week 6). Need a WR to step forward and get Young back on the field when he’s 100% healthy.
Volunteers are on a serious roll at 5-0, with quality wins over Pittsburgh, Florida and LSU. QB Hendon Hooker (1432 passing yards, 10 TDs, 0 INTs) continues to play at a high level. Two quick RBs chew up yardage with every drive, Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. WR corps goes four players deep and this squad is playing with a ton of confidence right now. Only fly in the ointment, is starting SS Jaylen McCollough was arrested earlier this week, on felony assault charges. Head coach Josh Heupel has faced this similar issue before during the 2022 season, and dismissed two players from the team. No matter what ends up happening with McCollough’s playing status, this will cause the Volunteers defensive unit to be ripe for big passing plays.
Prediction: Alabama is a 9.0 point road favorite and they win by 10+ points
3. NC State vs. Syracuse
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/15/22 from Syracuse, New York. Wolfpack are coming off a huge win over Florida State in Week 6 (19-17). Starting QB Devin Leary injured his left shoulder in that game and his playing status for Week 7 is a mystery. Backup QB Jack Chambers is a transfer portal player from Charleston Southern. Chambers threw one pass in the Week 6 game against Florida State, so he’s a run first QB. RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has been ineffective running the ball that last four games. WR Thayer Thomas disappeared in Week 6 with 0 catches and he needs to lead the WR corps. Wolfpack are in serious trouble if Leary doesn’t play.
Head coach Dino Babers and his Syracuse squad can beat anyone since the Orange are 5-0, with quality wins over Purdue and Virginia. Next five games (NC State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Florida State) will show if they are an ACC contender or pretender. QB Garrett Shrader has thrown for 1224 passing yards and 10 TDs. RB Sean Tucker has rushed for 546 yard and 5 TDs. WR Oronde Gadsden II has 366 receiving yards and 3 TDs. All three players are sophomores or juniors. Babers has quietly built a juggernaut football team at a basketball school.
Prediction: Due to Leary’s should injury, the Orange are a solid 3.0 point home favorite and they win by 7 points
2. Clemson vs. Florida State
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Tallahassee, Florida. Tigers are cruising along at 6-0, with the hard part of their schedule right in front of them (Florida State, Syracuse, Notre Dame). QB DJ Uiagalelei continues to take care of the football (1462 passing yards, 14 TDs). RB Will Shipley is the newest version of alum Trevor Renfroe (446 rushing yards, 8 TDs). WR and TE corps goes six plus players deep. Clemson is officially back in the CFP conversation, get used to it.
Seminoles are coming off tough back-to-back losses to Wake Forest (31-21) and NC State (19-17). Youngsters QB Jordan Travis, RB Treshaun Ward and WR Johnny Wilson are ready to lead Florida State back to relevance, but they need a signature program victory to get there. Will this be the week against a solid Clemson team that has bigger aspirations? Most bettors are saying no and I’m following that trend.
Prediction: Clemson is a 5.0 point road favorite and they win by 8 points
1. North Carolina vs. Duke
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) from Durham, North Carolina. I was really confused in Week 4, when the Blue Devils traveled to play the Jayhawks in a big game in Lawrence, Kansas. Now this matchup highlights the best college basketball rivalry, and Dick Vitale will be making a surprise guest appearance at halftime. Last time these two teams met was in the 2022 Final Four, the Tarheels advanced thanks to a big game from PG Caleb Love and timely shooting. Will that effort continue in Week 7? Only Mack Brown and his quick strike aerial offense can answer that question.
Blue Devils have lost two close games to Kansas (35-27) and Georgia Tech (23-20). Proves that the ACC is still tougher than the Big Ten, for being the best basketball conference in the country. I’ll take that bet seven days a week, 365 days a year. QB Riley Leonard, RB Jaylen Coleman, and WR Jalon Calhoun will need to play the game of their lives, to keep up with the full court press of North Carolina. Awesome baby! Can’t wait to see the Cameron crazies!.
Prediction: North Carolina is a valid 7.0 point road favorite and they take care of business due to winning by 14+ points
Week 7 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Minnesota vs. Illinois
Key Big Ten matchup that will showcase offense (Minnesota) vs. defense (Illinois). Golden Gophers have had two weeks to digest their bad loss to Purdue (20-10). Need senior RB Mohamed Ibrahim (567 rushing yards, 8 TDs), to be fully recovered from an injured ankle, to have a chance against the Fighting Illini. If Ibrahim isn’t available, junior Trey Potts will have to take care of the rock and learn how to keep plays alive with his legs.
Illinois is on a four game winning streak and ranked #24. QB Tommy DeVito (1163 passing yards, 9 TDs) will be a game time decision with a lower leg injury. RB Chase Brown (879 rushing yards, 4 TDs) will move the chains and rely on a stingy defense allowing only 8.0 points per game. Minnesota is currently a 7.0 point road favorite, but the Illini will be in this game until the end.
4. Oklahoma State vs. TCU
Tasty Big 12 matchup with both teams entering at 5-0. Cowboys are a trendy team right now, due to averaging 469.4 yards and 46.4 points per game. Horned Frogs are a mirror image, averaging 530.0 yards and 46.4 points per game. Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders continues to pile up impressive statistics (1394 passing yards, 12 passing TDs, 6 rushing TDs). Horned Frogs QB Max Duggan has similar statistics (1305 passing yards, 14 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs). Will be one of the highest scoring games of Week 7. Outcome will be decided by coaching and game planning. I’ll take Mike Gundy over Sonny Dykes, despite the Cowboys being 4.0 point road underdogs.
3. LSU vs. Florida
LSU enters this game at 4-2 and trying to forget about the 40-13 shellacking they took against Tennessee in Week 6. QB Jayden Daniels continues to run a dual threat offense, but his WR corps haven’t learned how to catch TDs yet. WR Malik Nabers (370 receiving yards, 1 TD) seems to be an every other game performer. He’ll need to break that trend if the Tigers have a chance to win this game. Florida is also 4-2 with two quality SEC losses (Kentucky, Tennessee). New head coach Billy Napier has already started changing the mindset of his starters to finish games, by playing hard to the final buzzer. QB Anthony Richardson needs to stop throwing INTs and simply hand the ball to RB Montrell Johnson Jr. Gators are a shaky 2.5 point home favorite and the Tigers will show up this week and steal a road win.
2. Mississippi State vs. Kentucky
Bulldogs appear to be trending up in the SEC, after impressive wins over Texas A&M (42-24) and Arkansas (40-17). QB Will Rogers has been playing lights out (2110 passing yards, 22 TDs) over the last three games. Nine WRs have at least 100 receiving yards for the season. Hate to admit this, but maybe head coach Mike Leach is starting to figure out how to be relevant in the SEC. Wildcats need to bounce back after two close losses to Ole Miss (22-19) and South Carolina (24-14). QB Will Levis probably won’t start due to a finger injury and a mysterious foot injury. Head coach Mark Stoops will need some trick plays and a ball control offense to pull an upset as a 4.0 point home underdog.
1. USC vs. Utah
PAC-12 matchup that can be considered desert after a full Saturday of football games, due to a primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT). USC leads this series 13-7-0 and Utah won the last game in 2021 (42-26). Trojans always get physically dominated by Utah in Salt Lake City and then their offense appears to be stuck in neutral. How to fix that problem?
Steer into the skid and let QB Caleb Williams lull the Utes to sleep, by running a lot of quick pitch running plays and QB keepers. That’ll open up play action passes and let WR Jordan Addison run deep outs. That strategy is easier said than done, due to Utah’s defense only allowing 315.8 yards and 19.0 points per game. First coaching duel between Lincoln Riley and Kyle Wittingham will be memorable. Utah is a legitimate 3.5 point home favorite, but its time for Riley to earn his big paycheck with a road victory.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #8
- Huge games in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and PAC-12 will dominate the airwaves and chat rooms.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #7?
- Will the ESPN Gameday weekly location be considered a blessing or curse for the home team?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #7 and try again in week #8.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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