This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video is right around the corner on 10/20/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.
2022 Week 6 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Minnesota, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Rams
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 correct thanks to New England
Overall picks – 4/10 correct which is one standard deviation below the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 18/30 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 14/30 correct
Overall picks – 32/60 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Seattle vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on 10/23/22. Seahawks are a surprising 3-3 after a convincing 19-9 win over Arizona in Week 6. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III had a breakout performance with 21 carries, 97 rushing yards and 1 TD. Due to Seattle’s backfield being a mess with injuries, Walker has a chance to show why he was a unanimous first team All-American at Michigan State in 2021. Defense needs to find a way to minimize giving up 410.8 yards and 27.2 points per game. Eliminating turnovers and running a ball control offense would help those statistics. Sounds like Pete Carroll is close to being back in his wheelhouse.
Chargers enter this matchup on a quiet three game winning streak. QB Justin Herbert seems to have recovered from fractured ribs in Week 1 (1716 passing yards, 10 TDs). RB Austin Ekeler (346 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 261 receiving yards, 2 TD catches), needs some players to support his weekly workload. WR Mike Williams had an off week (2 catches, 17 receiving yards), which means he’s due for a breakout game against a weak secondary. PK Taylor Bertolet was elevated to starter this week, due to Dustin Hopkins suffering a bad hamstring injury in Week 6.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers are a healthy 6.0 point home favorite and they hold on to win by 4 points
4. Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee on 10/23/22. Big AFC South matchup with the winner moving into first place. Colts enter with a two game winning streak and trying to avenge a Week 4 loss to the Titans (24-17). QB Matt Ryan (1765 passing yards, 8 TDs) has played better without injured RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor is still nursing a bad ankle this week and will be a game time decision. WR Michael Pittman Jr. (417 receiving yards, 1 TD) has taken up some of the offensive slack with Taylor out. Unsung defensive unit is only allowing 323.7 yards and 20.2 points per game.
Titans enter this contest on a three game winning streak (Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Washington), but seem to be playing down to their opponents level of competition. QB Ryan Tannehill continues to be a game manager due to handing off to RB Derrick Henry (408 rushing yards, 5 TDs). WR Robert Woods has become the go to passing option (204 receiving yards, 1 TD), but other players really need to step up to diversify the Tennessee offense. Defense is getting gashed for 390.8 yards and 23.6 points per game. This will be a field position game for all sixty minutes.
Prediction: Tennessee is a 2.5 point home favorite and they roll to a 10+ point victory
3. Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from M&T Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland on 10/23/22. The new Browns franchise established in 1999, plays the original Browns franchise that moved to Baltimore in 1996. Cleveland fans still despise Art Modell for moving their beloved team to the Atlantic Coast. Browns limp into this matchup on a three game losing streak, and were taken out to the woodshed in Week 6 by New England (38-15). QB Jacoby Brissett has only completed 55% of his passes during the losing streak and tossed four INTs. RB Nick Chubb was held in check by the Patriots (12 carries, 56 rushing yards, 0 TDs). WR and TE corps have started to be inconsistent. Who is going to lead this squad for the rest of 2022?
Ravens lost to the New York Giants in Week 6 (24-20) and are on an AB pattern of win, lose, win, lose, so they are trending for a victory in Week 7. QB Lamar Jackson continues to be the entire Baltimore offense (1277 passing yards, 13 passing TDs, 451 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs), but he now has a knack for taking bad sacks. TE Mark Andrews is leading the receiving corps with 39 catches, 455 receiving yards, 5 TDs. Rest of the Ravens offensive personnel seems to be going through the motions. Defense is porous giving up 371.5 yards and 23.5 points per game. Head coach John Harbaugh needs to adjust the game plan or wake his squad up ASAP.
Prediction: Baltimore is a strong 6.5 point home favorite and they win by 7+ points
2. Kansas City vs. San Francisco
Late afternoon kickoff (4:25 PM EST) from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California on 10/23/22. Chiefs are still trying to figure out how they lost at home to Buffalo in Week 6 (24-20). QBs Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes played to a statistical standstill, and the Chiefs had two bad turnovers. Now its time for the battle of the two TEs (Travis Kelce, Greg Kittle). Not surprisingly, Kelce has filled the hole left by WR Tyreek Hill being traded to Miami, with 455 receiving yards and 7 TDs. I’m in agreement with most announcers wondering how and why Kelce gets wide open on big plays, despite defenses trying multiple coverage packages. Kelce is athletically gifted and probably the hardest working TE in the NFL.
49ers were pushed around by Atlanta in Week 6 (28-14), and are now dealing with being very short handed on defense due to injuries. Three of the four starters in San Francisco’s secondary are listed as questionable for this game. Defensive line has three starters and five depth players listed as questionable or out as well. Playing in the NFL is a war of attrition, but missing that many starters will allow the Chiefs to fine tune their running game and experiment with their passing game. TE George Kittle seems to be more focused on blocking for WR Deebo Samuel this season and he’s one of the best blockers in the NFL. Will that be enough to keep up with high scoring Kansas City?
Prediction: Kansas City is a quiet 2.5 point road favorite and they win by 8 points
1. Detroit vs. Dallas
Lock of the week is an early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) on 10/23/22, from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Hard to believe its been twenty-eight years since the instant classic Monday Night Football game on 9/19/94, that highlighted RBs Barry Sanders (40 carries, 194 rushing yards) and Emmitt Smith (29 carries, 143 rushing yards, 1 TD). That game significantly helped the NFL start to get rid of the nickname, No Fun League.
Current Lions squad plays hard for second year head coach Dan Campbell, trying to improve on the 2021 season (3-13-1). Final scores haven’t translated to wins yet (1-4), but three of those loses were by a combined total of ten points. QB Jared Goff has had a bounce back season so far (1355 passing yards, 11 TDs). RBs Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift are a nice 1-2 punch, but they need some help moving the chains. Three headed receiving corps (Josh Reynolds, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson) do stretch defenses, but they need to be more consistent in the red zone.
If you were to ask any Cowboys fan after their debacle against Tampa Bay in Week 1, that they would be 4-2 heading into Week 7 and have QB Dak Prescott back under center, most would say that’s a ludicrous prediction. Backup QB Cooper Rush held the fort down, a running game was found, and the defense gelled as a unit. Now head coach Mike McCarthy needs to continue to stay out of the way, and let this team play due to their innate athletic ability.
Prediction: Dallas is a steady 7.0 point home favorite and they cover easily
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. New Orleans vs. Arizona
Both teams are 2-4 heading into the Thursday Night matchup on Amazon Prime Video. Al Michaels has reinvented his top notch play calling resume, by being blunt and brutally honest about the last two horrible games on Amazon TV. This matchup will most likely be the third straight bad game he’ll have to broadcast. Saints have been losing their games by an average of 6.3 points. Cardinals have been losing their games by an average of 10.0 points. Both offenses and defenses are a mess. Arizona QB Kyler Murray is starting to be vocal to the media about his frustration with how games are playing out. Shouldn’t he be spending more time in film study? Cardinals are a shaky 2.5 point home favorite and the Saints will be in this game to the final series.
4. New York Jets vs. Denver
Jets are a surprising 4-2 and riding high with a three game winning streak. Get a rocky mountain road trip in Week 7, before heading back into AFC East divisional play for three straight games. Backup QB Joe Flacco kept the offense afloat for three weeks by throwing the ball all over the field. QB Zach Wilson returned in Week 4 and the offense has gotten even better. RB Breece Hall (391 rushing yards, 3 TDs) is a dark horse for AFC rookie of the year. WR and TE corps is six players deep. Head coach Robert Salah has already changed the culture in the locker room and on the field.
Broncos are a train wreck you can’t avoid slowing down to watch, as you drive by on the interstate. No clock management, inconsistent game plans, questionable play calling, too many injuries, too many penalties, a bad Russell Wilson at QB…the list goes on and on. Not to mention they can’t score in the red zone. Most Denver fans thought Wilson would slot in at starting QB, and the 2022 season would look similar to the 2012 season when Peyton Manning arrived in town. That pipe dream is now officially over and the entire city needs to look forward to 2023 ASAP. Broncos are a nervous 1.0 point home favorite and they’ll lose this game to the New York Jets in the third quarter.
3. Pittsburgh vs. Miami
Steelers might have saved their season by beating Tampa Bay in Week 6 (20-18). QB Mitch Trubisky came off the bench, replacing rookie Kenny Pickett (concussion). Passing game showed up, Najee Harris scored a big rushing TD, and the defense hung on for sixty minutes against a pissed off Tom Brady. Pittsburgh will need all of their starting secondary back to play the high flying Dolphins on the road. Miami has lost three games in a row, but will be welcoming back starting QB Tua Tagovailoa with open arms. All football fans know that head coach Mike McDaniel is enamored with Tua, but will his squad go back to their winning ways quickly? Dolphins are a curious 7.0 point home favorite and I have a hunch the Steelers are going to hang around into the fourth quarter.
2. New York Giants vs. Jacksonville
Giants aren’t getting any attention from the talking heads in the media, despite being 5-1. Enter this game on a three game winning streak, with close wins over Green Bay and Baltimore. QB Daniel Jones (1021 passing yards, 5 TDs), finally looks like a somewhat capable NFL game manager under center. RB Saquon Barkley has to be considered one of the early season favorites for MVP, due to 616 rushing yards, 4 TDs, and 155 receiving yards. Defense is allowing 317.3 yards and 21.2 points per game. Jaguars have lost three games in a row and are trying to figure out how to hold onto a lead in the fourth quarter. QB Trevor Lawrence (1397 passing yards, 9 TDs) seems to be avoiding the sophomore slump at the NFL level. His defense needs to tighten up in the fourth quarter, due to allowing 333.8 yards and 19.0 points per game. Jaguars are a 3.0 point home favorite and the New York Giants will win this game because that is simply what they are doing in 2022 so far.
1. Atlanta vs. Cincinnati
Both teams are 3-3 heading into this game. Falcons showed some onions in their Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay (21-15), that they then carried into Week 6 and a quality win against San Francisco (28-14). QB Marcus Mariota (1055 passing yards, 5 TDs) may have found a temporary home. RB Cordarrelle Patterson has found the fountain of youth in his tenth season (340 rushing yards, 3 TDs). Rookie WR Drake London (306 receiving yards, 2 TDs) is turning heads, but TE Kyle Pitts needs the ball thrown more to him to open up the Atlanta offense. Bengals have been inconsistent from week to week and seem to think they can flip an on/off switch at any time. That’s not how teams excel in the NFL. QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase had a monster game in Week 6 against New Orleans, but they need their teammates to step up during critical plays. If the Bengals iron out the kinks in Week 7, they have a cakewalk schedule for the next three games. Cincinnati is a 6.5 point home favorite, but the Falcons defense will get to Burrow and hang around late in the fourth quarter.
Storylines Heading into Week 8
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 7? Josh Allen or Saquon Barkley?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 7?
- Crank up the hype machine for Packers vs. Bills and passing the QB torch from Aaron Rodgers to Josh Allen
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 7 and try again in Week 8.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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