This article covers the most exciting week 9 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 8 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 thanks to Clemson, Oklahoma State and TCU
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 thanks to Boise State
Overall picks – 4/10 which is one standard deviation below the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 32/40
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 15/40
Overall picks – 47/80 which is one standard deviation above the mean
Week 9 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Ohio State vs. Penn State
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 10/29/22 from University Park, Pennsylvania. Huge Big Ten matchup that will help determine if either of these teams can keep pace with Michigan in the East Division. Ohio State is rolling at 7-0 and ranked #2 in the country. Haven’t played a close game since Week 1 against Notre Dame (21-10). Get through this matchup and then the Buckeyes can start early game planning for Michigan on 11/26/22.
QB C.J. Stroud has to be one of the Heisman Trophy favorites due to his offensive statistics (2023 passing yards, 28 TDs). Currently leads the nation with a 92.6 QBR. RB Mylan Williams continues to move the chains with 516 rushing yards and 9 TDs. WR Emeka Egbuka leads a young receiving corps with 735 receiving yards, 7 TDs. Head coach Ryan Day doesn’t get enough credit always having his squad ready to play in big games.
Nittany Lions are 6-1 heading into this matchup and need help catching the Wolverines, due to a bad shellacking in Week 7 (41-17). Freshman RB Nicholas Singleton continues to run hard with 561 rushing yards and 7 TDs. WR and TE corps goes five players deep with 100+ receiving yards for the season. Trails the Buckeyes in this series 14-22-0 and may need a miracle to be competitive this week, despite playing at home. Last victory in this series was in 2016.
Prediction: Ohio State is a strong 15.5 point road favorite and they’ll be in control of the second half to win by 10+ points
4. Florida vs. Georgia
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/29/22 from Jacksonville, Florida. World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be held for the 101st time, with Georgia leading the series 54-44-2. Bulldogs won the last game played in 2021 (34-7). Gators have one quality win (Utah) and three quality losses (Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU). New head coach Billy Napier has improved the mindset and culture inside the Florida locker room. Now he has to get more consistent play out of QB Anthony Richardson (1367 passing yards, 6 passing TDs, 395 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs, 7 INTs). RB corps is young (freshmen, sophomores) and goes three players deep. Four WRs have eclipsed the 100+ receiving yards for the season. This is a young team that seems to be a year away from being a solid SEC team.
Bulldogs are 7-0 and ranked #1 in the country. Have only been tested by Missouri in Week 5 (26-22). QB Stetson Bennett has been a steady game manager (2033 passing yards, 7 TDs). Georgia’s squad is different this year due to their depth at RB and WR. Four talented and physical RBs (Daijuan Edwards, Kendall Milton, Kenny McIntosh, Branson Robinson) all share the rock and move the chains. That quartet has rushed for 14 TDs. WR and TE corps goes eight players deep with 100+ receiving yards on the season. Defense is having a nice encore to their historic 2021 season, by only allowing 247.1 yards and 9.1 points per game.
Prediction: Georgia is a hefty 23.5 point neutral site favorite and they’ll show off in this game getting ready for Tennessee in Week 10. Bulldogs win by 20 points.
3. Wake Forest vs. Louisville
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/29/22 from Louisville, Kentucky. Demon Deacons have quietly moved up to the #10 ranking and are 6-1. Quality loss to Clemson in Week 5 (51-45 in 2OT). Next four games (Louisville, NC State, North Carolina, Syracuse) will help determine where Wake Forest will be bowling after the regular season. Junior QB Sam Hartman (1755 passing yards, 21 TDs) is starting to play like a legitimate NFL prospect. Two headed running attack with RBs Justice Ellison and Christian Turner (9 total TDs). Five WRs have already eclipsed 200+ receiving yards for the season. Head coach Dave Clawson continues to thrive in the ACC during his ninth season.
Cardinals are 4-3 after back-to-back wins over Virginia and Pittsburgh. NFL ready QB Malik Cunningham continues to stuff the stat sheet (1090 passing yards, 5 passing TDs, 503 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs). Good RB depth (Trevion Cooley, Tiyon Evans, Jawhar Jordan) and a three deep receiving corps, shows that Louisville isn’t just a one man offense. Defense is allowing 356.3 yards and 20.6 points per game. Cardinals will continue to be a tough out for the remainder of the regular season.
Prediction: Wake Forest is a legitimate 3.0 point road favorite and they win a close game by 4 points
2. Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Primetime evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Knoxville, Tennessee. Intriguing SEC matchup with the 5-2 Wildcats going on the road to play the hottest team in the country. Rebounded after back-to back losses to Ole Miss and South Carolina, to beat Mississippi State in Week 8 (27-17). QB Will Levis returned to game action in Week 8 and completed 73.9% of his passes. RB Chris Rodriquez Jr. has quickly climbed the depth chart, rushing for 395 yards and 3 TDs during the past three games. RB Kavosiey Smoke’s carries have decreased the last two weeks, but he can be the lightning to Rodriquez’s thunder. Need senior WR Tayvion Robinson to emerge from a talented receiving corps, since he hasn’t been 100% healthy since late September 2022.
Volunteers QB Hendon Hooker continues to raise his level of play (2093 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 315 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs). RBs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small are a dynamic one-two punch coming out of the backfield. WR Jalin Hyatt continues to torch secondaries with 40 catches, 769 receiving yards, 12 TDs. Offense is leading the country with 571.7 yards and 50.1 points per game. Defense is surrendering 420.6 yards per game, but tightens up in the red zone due to only allowing 23.1 points per game. Tennessee needs to avoid looking ahead to Georgia in Week 10.
Prediction: Tennessee is a big 12.0 point home favorite and they’ll win by 10 points
1. Michigan State vs. Michigan
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Ann Arbor, Michigan. Best regular season game of 2021, is now a little brother vs. big brother storyline due to a lackluster season by the Spartans. Michigan State enters this game at 3-4 and with a porous defense. Allowing 422.3 yards and 27.1 points per game. Offense is producing 349.0 yards and 27.3 points per game. QB Peyton Thorne (1499 passing yards, 11 TDs) hasn’t followed up the magical 2021 season. Lack of a consistent running game and injuries to the receiving corps have been hard to overcome. Head coach Mel Tucker seems to be getting a free pass, as 2022 appears to be a rebuilding season.
Wolverines are 7-0 and ranked #4 in the country. Smash-mouth running attack is rounding into form just in time for cold weather Big Ten games in November. QB J.J. McCarthy (1297 passing yards, 9 TDs) continues to operate the offense with no issues. RB Blake Corum (901 rushing yards, 13 TDs) is now climbing the Heisman Trophy favorites list. Defense is only allowing 250.0 yards and 12.1 points per game. Head coach Jim Harbaugh found a formula that worked in 2021 to get to the CFP and he’s using it again.
Prediction: Michigan is a legitimate 23.0 point home favorite and they’ll cover
Week 9 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Baylor vs. Texas Tech
Big 12 seems to be my bread and butter league for predictions this season, so I’m heading back to it in Week 9. Both teams are 4-3 on the season and 2-2 in conference play. Bears haven’t been playing with the defensive intensity they showed in 2021. Defense has to tighten up quickly due to allowing 24.1 points per game. RB Richard Reece (643 rushing yards, 9 TDs) and WR Gavin Holmes (393 receiving yards, 3 TDs) headline the offense. Red Raiders are comfortable playing high scoring and tight games. Seem to get tired and lose focus in the fourth quarter. QB Donovan Smith is physically big (6′-5″, 230 lbs) but he’s also prone to throwing ill timed interceptions. Baylor is a 2.0 point road underdog and they’ll push Texas Tech into the fourth quarter.
4. Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Tasty Big 12 matchup from Manhattan, Kansas. Cowboys showed some onions during their comeback win over Texas in Week 8 (41-34). Head coach Mike Gundy loosened up the playbook and let QB Spencer Sanders throw the football all over the field for 391 passing yards and 2 TDs. Oklahoma State has almost perfected the gameday approach of “its not how you start, its how you finish.” Wildcats are still trying to figure out how they lost, after having a double digit halftime lead to TCU in Week 8 (38-28). Starting QB Adrian Martinez was injured in the first quarter and backup Will Howard chipped in with 225 passing yards and 2 TDs. No update yet on Martinez’s playing status for Week 9. Cowboys are a 1.5 point road underdog and will be in this game for sixty minutes.
3. Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
Fighting Irish have been trying to salvage their 2022 season after opening with losses to Ohio State and Marshall. Have a quality win (BYU) and another bad loss (Stanford). Still have marquee games against Clemson in Week 10 and USC in Week 13. QB Drew Pyne has improved his play in October (1077 passing yards, 12 TDs). Notre Dame has a deep roster with three RBs and three WRs, but they have a tendency to overuse TE Michael Mayer (526 receiving yards, 6 TDs). Didn’t realize head coach Marcus Freeman studied the Baltimore Ravens offensive playbook.
Syracuse had Clemson on the ropes in Week 8, before allowing a standing eight count and losing 27-21. Head coach Dino Babers is a master at motivating his team, but that loss will linger into Week 9. Junior QB Garrett Shrader needs to use his leadership skills in the huddle, to rally his teammates and get them back to playing sound football. Notre Dame is a 1.5 point road underdog and if they weather the first half pressure in the JMA Wireless Dome, this will be a great second half to watch.
2. Oklahoma vs. Iowa State
The would of, could of, should of matchup of Week 9. Sooners are an underwhelming 4-3 and can’t stop a high school team with their defensive unit. New head coach Brent Venables doesn’t look overwhelmed with running a historical top tier program, but his coaching staff and players appear to be going through the motions each week. QB Dillon Gabriel has been good but not great (1618 passing yards, 13 TDs). RB Eric Gray and WR Melvin Mims are doing their best to lead by example, but their defensive teammates can’t stop a layup by Woody Harrelson.
Iowa State enters this game at 3-4 and on a tough four game losing streak. All four losses were to quality teams (Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas), and by a combined fourteen points. Head coach Matt Campbell needs to find a way to get his squad over the hump, or else his future coaching job opportunities are going to dwindle. Stud WR Xavier Hutchinson (758 receiving yards, 5 TDs) should have a field day against the Sooners secondary. Cyclones are a 1.5 point home underdog, but their offense will look top notch for sixty minutes.
1. Cincinnati vs. UCF
Bearcats are on a six game winning streak and counting their lucky stars to get out of the Dallas metro area, with a close win in Week 8 against SMU (29-27). Senior QB Ben Bryant gutted out the SMU game, after clearing concussion protocols. RB Charles McClleland and WR Tyler Scott are worth watching, if you are mining for rookie fantasy football sleepers in 2023. Head coach Luke Fickell continues to show that he’s comfortable working in Ohio.
Golden Knights are 5-2 and coming off a bad loss to East Carolina in Week 8 (34-13). Senior QB John Rhys Plumlee is the latest dual threat QB that no one has heard of yet (1812 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 506 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs). He’s undersized for the NFL (6′-0″, 200 lbs), but definitely worth keeping an eye on during the 2023 NFL Combine. Six deep receiving corps will test the Bearcats secondary. UCF is currently a 1.0 point home favorite, but Cincinnati is used to winning tight road games.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #10
- Crank up the hype for Tennessee vs. Georgia
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #10?
- Can the Big 12 or PAC-12 get a team into the 2023 CFP?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #9 and try again in week #10.
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