This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video is right around the corner on 11/3/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.
2022 Week 8 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 correct thanks to Baltimore, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Tennessee
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 correct thanks to Cleveland
Overall picks – 6/10 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 27/40 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 17/40 correct
Overall picks – 44/80 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Miami vs. Chicago
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois on 11/6/22. Dolphins are 5-3 and riding a two game winning streak, after beating Pittsburgh and Detroit. QB Tua Tagovailoa was officially back in top form against Detroit, due to throwing for 382 passing yards and 3 TDs. Rushing game needs to improve ASAP, to take stress off WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Defense has been subpar due to allowing 362.8 yards and 24.0 points per game. Sitting 1.5 games behind Buffalo, with an easy November schedule before things will get gnarly in December.
Bears looked like world beaters in Week 7 against New England (33-14), before coming back to reality with a loss to Dallas in Week 8 (49-29). QB Justin Fields has improved a smidge at running the boot-leg, play-action scheme implemented by new OC Luke Getsey. Running attack could use some consistent play out of the WR and TE corps, which is currently ranked last in the NFL (129.6 passing yards per game). Defense is steady at only allowing 344.0 yards and 22.6 points per game. More DL pressure is needed on the opposing QB to make Chicago a viable team.
Prediction: Miami is a solid 4.0 point road favorite and they win by 7 points
4. Indianapolis vs. New England
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on 11/6/22. Colts are a team in transition, due to benching future Hall of Fame QB Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger. All world RB Jonathan Taylor continues to miss games with a badly injured ankle. Michael Pittman Jr. continues to lead the WR corps, but the offensive points cupboard is running empty. Patchwork defensive unit is doing yeoman’s work by only allowing 319.8 yards and 19.6 points per game. Time to see how good of a head coach Frank Reich really is, by motivating his squad on a weekly basis.
Patriots feel like an every other week team and enter this matchup at 4-4. QB Mac Jones is still rusty after missing close to a month of action (993 passing yards, 3 TDs, 7 INTs). Doesn’t help that he’s looking over his shoulder after every incompletion, to see if Bailey Zappe will replace him. Head coach Bill Belichick seems to thrive on keeping his squad tight and nervous in the locker room, but this season feels different. Belichick might burn this team out before December and then they won’t have any gas to make a playoff push. This will be a bumpy game, with a few delusions of grandeur.
Prediction: New England is a 5.5 point home favorite and they’ll easily win by 10+ points
3. Buffalo vs. New York Jets
Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on 11/6/22. Best matchup of the week with two heavyweights from the AFC East. Bills are 6-1 and riding a four game winning streak over quality opposition (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Green Bay). If QB Josh Allen (2198 passing yards, 21 total TDs) continues to play at a high level, Buffalo can easily be 10-1 heading into December. WR Stefon Diggs (764 receiving yards, 7 TDs) leads by example on the field and his teammates have bought into that principle. Defense leads the NFL by only allowing 14.0 points per game. Currently the best team in the AFC.
Jets aren’t getting any attention from the media, as they enter this game at 5-3. Had a much needed wake up call in Week 8, losing a close game to the Patriots (22-17). QB Zach Wilson needs to reduce turnovers and significantly improve his completion rate (54.9%), to keep pace in the stout AFC East. RB Breece Hall’s season ending knee injury in Week 7 has opened the door for Michael Carter (254 rushing yards, 2 TDs) to walk through. Will Carter knock, step or barge through that door? Jets need a dependable running game or they’ll be lapped quickly over the next two months.
Prediction: Buffalo is a strong 11.5 point road favorite and they’ll win by 10 points
2. Tennessee vs. Kansas City
Evening primetime kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on 11/6/22. Rematch of the 2020 AFC Championship Game that Kansas City won (35-24). Titans have won five tight games in a row by an average of 5.8 points. Offensive unit focuses on limiting turnovers and are riding stud RB Derrick Henry (107.9 rushing yards per game). There’s just enough passing plays (165.4 yards per game) to keep opposing defenses honest. Mike Vrabel’s game planning continues to succeed on a weekly basis.
Chiefs are running away in a suddenly weak AFC West at 6-2. Rebounded after losing to Buffalo in Week 7 (24-20), with a complete team road victory over San Francisco in Week 8 (43-20). QB Patrick Mahomes continues to pad his statistics (2159 passing yards, 20 TDs). Running attack is cobbling together 107.3 yards per game, to compliment 296.0 passing yards per game. If the RB corps can increase the team average to 135 yards per game, Chiefs might run the table for the rest of the regular season.
Prediction: Kansas City is a solid 12.5 point home favorite and they win by 11 points
1. Minnesota vs. Washington
Lock of the week is an early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) on 11/6/22, from FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. Vikings are the quietest 6-1 team in the NFL, and are on a five game winning streak. QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson must be relaxed and confident playing for new head coach Kevin O’Connell. Offense is balanced and clicking due to averaging 345.7 yards and 24.7 points per game. Defense is only allowing 20.6 points per game.
When a professional sports team has front office issues, the team on the field/court/rink can mask those issues by winning games. Inevitably the issues will grow and get worse, which negatively impacts the team and losses will start to accumulate. The owner of the Commanders, Daniel Snyder, has finally reached the conclusion that he needs to get out of the NFL completely. Now that Snyder is considering selling the Washington franchise, the locker room could potentially splinter despite how well head coach Ron Rivera runs a tight ship. The Carson Wentz experiment at QB didn’t work out in 2022. Lack of a consistent running game and bad drafting is finally catching up. Current three game winning streak is masking how poorly this historical franchise is being run on a daily basis.
Prediction: Minnesota is a sound 3.0 point road favorite and they win by 9+ points
Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Seattle vs. Arizona
Seahawks lead a suddenly weak NFC West at 5-3. Head into this matchup on a three game winning streak, with each win being by 10+ points. QB Geno Smith continues to turn back father time with 1924 passing yards and 13 TDs. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III had an off game in Week 8 against the Giants (51 rushing yards, 1 TD), but he’s just getting started on a memorable pro career. If Seattle sticks to their 2013-2014 playbook of running the ball and playing sound defense, they’ll be back in the NFL playoffs when no one expects it.
Cardinals have underachieved at 3-5 and are only 1-3 at home. Inconsistent QB Kyler Murray (1993 passing yards, 10 passing TDs, 299 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs), is trying to carry this team on his back, with an injured RB and WR corps. Only Lamar Jackson can pull off that stunt for an extended period of time. Swiss Army knife RB James Conner is a game time decision this week, and until he returns to action, Arizona will continue to flounder in the red zone. Cardinals are a shaky 2.0 point home favorite, but Seattle gets comfortable on road trips to the Arizona desert.
4. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta
Chargers limp into this matchup at 4-3, after a bad home loss to Seattle in Week 7 (37-23). WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen will miss this game due to injuries. Third string WR DeAndre Carter will be a game time decision. Starting K Dustin Hopkins is still out with a bad hamstring. TE Donald Parham Jr. has also been ruled out this week. Not sure if the Chargers will be looking for healthy players in line at the Chick-Fil-A restaurant inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, but they’ll be very shorthanded.
Falcons are currently 4-4 and sitting in first place in the NFC South. Have figured out how to win at home and play close games on the road. Defense has shown moments of grandeur, but are giving up 415.8 yards and 25.6 points per game. That problem needs to be addressed ASAP. QB Marcus Mariota (1432 passing yards, 10 TDs) may have found a temporary home in Atlanta. Now its up to him to recharge his career and this franchise. Best strategy to do that, is to throw the ball to uber-talented TE Kyle Pitts (258 receiving yards, 2 TDs), and let him go to work. Chargers are somehow a 3.0 point road favorite, but the Falcons will continue to enjoy home cooking this week.
3. Green Bay vs. Detroit
What is wrong with the Packers? Has QB Aaron Rodgers aged overnight? How much does the locker room miss WR Davante Adams? Is the playbook too repetitive? Keep asking tough questions, but it doesn’t hide the fact that Green Bay is 3-5 and on a bad four game losing streak. After playing Detroit this week, the next three games get even harder (Dallas, Tennessee, Philadelphia). Buckle your seatbelts Packer fans, this season is about to go from bad to worse. It is what it is.
Lions are still snake bit in 2022 and head into this game at 1-6, while riding a five game losing streak. Head coach Dan Campbell has to be running out of motivational speeches for his squad. Offense is respectable due to averaging 394.9 yards and 24.7 points per game. Defense is ranked last in the NFL, due to surrendering 421.3 yards and 32.1 points per game. Detroit needs to make some fundamental tackles, get third down stops on defense, and then try not to laugh when Rodgers has a post game press conference that sounds like Fox News. Easier said than done, with the Packers being a 3.5 point road favorite.
2. Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay
Rematch of the 2022 NFL Divisional Round Playoff game that the Los Angeles Rams won in walk-off fashion on the road (30-27). Rams enter this game at 3-4 and haven’t beaten a quality team yet. Lack of a running game and physically tired QB Matthew Stafford, has caused Los Angeles to become a one dimensional team on offense. Only averaging 16.9 points scored per game. Defense is allowing 22.4 points per game and are simply on the field too long to make a difference.
Buccaneers are regressing at 3-5 on the season and mired in a horrible three game losing streak. Every sports talking head on television, is admitting that QB Tom Brady has finally “fallen off the cliff” at forty-five years old. Despite Brady throwing for 2267 passing yards and 9 TDs, the running game is almost non-existent and WR Mike Evans is single handedly carrying the receiving corps. Tampa Bay is going to be a slow moving train wreck for the remainder of the season. It’ll end up being a bittersweet final NFL season for Tom Brady, and he should have stayed in retirement. Buccaneers are 3.0 point home favorites and this game will be a mixture of good and bad plays by both teams. Rams find a way to keep it close in the fourth quarter and maybe steal another walk-off win.
1. Las Vegas vs. Jacksonville
The uff da game of the week. Raiders are a mess at 2-5 and haven’t won a road game. Is Josh McDaniels really head coaching material? QB Derek Carr (1621 passing yards, 9 TDs), RB Josh Jacobs (676 rushing yards, 6 TDs), and WR Davante Adams (512 receiving yards, 5 TDs) are clicking, but there’s no depth behind them. Defense can’t make third down stops and is giving up 24.9 points per game. Jaguars are scuffling along at 2-6 and stuck in five game losing streak. Losses are by an average of 6.4 points per game. QB Trevor Lawrence is playing better in his second season (1840 passing yards, 10 TDs). No idea why the Jacksonville OC won’t give the rock to the hot hand, RB Travis Etienne, Jr., when he gets in a groove. Raiders are a 2.5 point road favorite and this will be a close game for sixty minutes.
Storylines Heading into Week 10
- Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 9? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
- Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 9?
- Crank up the hype machine for Vikings vs Bills
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 9 and try again in Week 10.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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