This article covers the most exciting week 12 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 11 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 2/5 thanks to LSU and Alabama
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to UCF, TCU and North Carolina
Overall picks – 5/10 which is right at the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 41/55
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 23/55
Overall picks – 64/110 which is one standard deviation above the mean
Week 12 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Illinois vs. Michigan
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/19/22 from Ann Arbor, Michigan. This looks like a big mismatch, but there’s several factors at play for the Fighting Illini to do more than simply show up at the Big House. Illinois is currently in a dog fight to win the West Division in the Big Ten conference. Despite losing to Purdue in Week 11 (31-24), still have a mathematical chance to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game on 12/3/22. Will have to rely on their top notch defense (246.9 yards and 12.5 points per game allowed), to stay within ten points of the Wolverines.
Michigan is clicking at 10-0 and ranked #3 in the CFP. Could be caught napping due to looking forward to their road game at Ohio State in Week 13. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s squad has closely followed their blueprint from 2021, to be positioned in the CFP semi-finals again. RB Blake Corum is a legitimate Heisman Trophy finalist due to rushing for 1349 yards, 17 rushing TDs, 1 receiving TD. Have played an incredibly weak schedule since Week 1, and only been challenged by Maryland in Week 4 (won 34-27). Nebraska used a similar scheduling formula to perfection in the 1980s and 1990s. Hopefully the Wolverines don’t follow the Huskers in a similar program arch.
Prediction: Michigan is a solid 17.5 point home favorite and they’ll win a defensive slugfest by 14+ points
4. TCU vs. Baylor
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/19/22 from Waco, Texas. Intriguing Big 12 conference matchup that has CFP implications. Horned Frogs are 10-0 and currently ranked #4 in the CFP, with Tennessee, LSU and USC all waiting for them to stumble. Current trend is for TCU to take care of business against Baylor and Iowa State. Will most likely play Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game and then await their fate with the CFP committee. Only problem with that approach, is three games have to be won and the first one is against the defending Big 12 champions. Horned Frogs defense carried the mail in Week 11 against Texas (17-10). Same drill might work against the Bears, but QB Max Duggan (2531 passing yards, 25 TDs) is loving the big game spotlight so far.
Bears started the 2022 season ranked #10 with sky high aspirations due to finishing 12-2 in 2021. Four quality losses to BYU, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas State have shown Baylor to be reloading at the skill positions and learning how to hold onto leads in the fourth quarter. Head coach Dave Aranda will have his squad ready to play not only as a spoiler, but also setting the tone for the 2023 season. Defense is allowing way too many yards (360.0) and points (25.2) per game. TCU has a high flying and adaptable offense to all of the defenses they have played so far. This matchup will be won by the better coaching staff.
Prediction: TCU is a steady 2.5 point road favorite and they win a nail biter by 4 points
3. Georgia vs. Kentucky
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 11/19/22 from Lexington, Kentucky. Bulldogs now seem to be relishing the fact they are defending national champions, after registering five straight double digit victories to be 10-0. Senior QB Stetson Bennett (2895 passing yards, 14 TDs) seems to play better when he’s under pressure. Four deep RB corps and a six deep WR/TE corps has simply been too talented to be overcome by opponents. Add in the second ranked defense in the country (269.8 yards and 11.6 points per game), and this is the team favored to repeat as national champions. Ohio State and Tennessee could potentially hang with Georgia, if they got some lucky breaks during a game.
Wildcats were the darlings of college football in September 2022, being 4-0 until reality set in and they have lost four of their last six games. Three quality losses (Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee), can’t hide the bad loss to Vanderbilt (24-21) in Week 11. Head coach Mike Stoops has built a solid SEC program and his name will be mentioned with all head coach openings after the 2022 season. Senior QB Will Levis has had three straight games to forget statistically (377 passing yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs, -74 rushing yards). Keep an eye on Levis during the 2023 NFL Combine, to see how his NFL draft stock ends up either rising or falling based on the tail end of his collegiate career.
Prediction: Georgia is a hefty 22.5 point road favorite and they’ll win by 17+ points
2. Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Norman, Oklahoma. 2022 version of the Bedlam Series could easily be renamed the Boredom Series. Sooners lead this historical series 90-19-7, with the Cowboys winning an incredible game in 2021 (37-33), that broke a six year losing streak. Oklahoma State is 2-3 in their last five games, with two lopsided losses to Kansas State (48-0) and Kansas (37-16). Current state of the Cowboys offense is similar to trying to drive a car with a broken transmission. QB Spencer Sanders has pulled the car into the closest Jiffy Lube for emergency repairs, and his RBs and WRs have gone AWOL due to being in a new town. Need head coach Mike Gundy to call AAA on his cell phone for some help, or this game could get out of hand quickly.
Sooners haven’t fared any better in 2022 and come into this game with a pedestrian record of 5-5. Are trying to rebound after back-to-back losses to Baylor and West Virginia by a combined six points. New head coach Brent Venables truly cares for OU and is probably the right man to lead this team back to national prominence. Big question is will that happen in 2023? Or will it be even harder to do after joining the SEC in 2024? RB Eric Gray (1113 rushing yards, 10 TDs) and junior WR Marvin Mims Jr. (776 receiving yards, 4 TDs) continue to lead by example, but the typical sound and technical team defense has been missing this season. Venables has some heavy lifting to do and hopefully he can get this train back on track.
Prediction: Oklahoma is a questionable 7.0 point home favorite and weird things have happened in the Bedlam Series over the last twenty years (see 2001). Sooners will send their fan base home in a good mood with a 3 point victory.
1. USC vs. UCLA
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) from Pasadena, California. Battle of Los Angeles has Rose Bowl and potential CFP implications for the team that wins. Trojans are riding a three game winning streak. and will go as far as transfer portal QB Caleb Williams (3010 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 283 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs) can take them. Will definitely miss RB Travis Dye for the remainder of the season, due to sustaining a bad lower leg injury in Week 11 against Colorado. All world WR Jordan Addison (587 receiving yards, 7 TDs) needs to get healthy to help stretch out defenses and open up crossing patterns. Defense is still getting gashed for 394.2 yards and 24.4 points per game.
Bruins head into this matchup at 8-2 and ranked #16 in the CFP. Have a quality loss at Oregon, but will take some time to process how they lost to a subpar Arizona squad in Week 11 (34-28) at home. Senior QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has raised his NFL Draft stock considerably, due to having a monster season statistically (2385 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 463 rushing yards, 7 TDs). Portal transfer RB Zach Charbonnet (1145 rushing yards, 13 TDs) has fit like a glove in this offense. WR Jake Bobo (651 receiving yards, 6 TDs) has turned into a consistent #1 WR. Maybe head coach Chip Kelly has finally found a new home to get comfortable in.
Prediction: USC is a solid 2.0 point road favorite and this game will be a score fest. Trojans find a way to win by 6 points to stay in the CFP hunt.
Week 12 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Duke vs. Pittsburgh
This blogger is headed to the ACC, to see if there are any holiday appetizers that have been prepared early and are sitting on the kitchen counter. Blue Devils have had a solid season at 7-3, with two quality losses to Kansas and North Carolina. Have outscored their ACC opponents by a combined 63 points. Super sleeper QB Riley Leonard (2113 passing yards, 13 passing TDs, 625 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs), is yet another dual threat QB that has a bright NFL draft future.
Panthers are 6-4 and riding a two game winning streak. Will continue to pick on QB Keldon Slovis due to throwing for 1945 yards, 6 TDs and 6 INTs. Slovis is the most underwhelming “big name” transfer portal player for the entire 2022 season. Head coach Pat Narduzzi has his squad playing their best football at the end of the season, but the Blue Devils will be in this game for sixty minutes, despite being a 7.0 point road underdog.
4. Houston vs. East Carolina
Intriguing American Conference game with both teams sitting at 6-4 on the season. Cougars have an outside chance to get into the American Conference Championship game on 12/3/22. Another dual threat QB, Clayton Tune, has racked up some gaudy statistics this season (3024 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 415 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs). More importantly Tune is a fifth year senior and his leadership will be needed in the huddle. Undersized WR Nathaniel Dell (5′-10″, 165 lbs) has exploded this season with 1017 receiving yards and 13 TDs.
East Carolina has two quality wins over UCF and BYU, and a quality loss against Cincinnati in Week 11 (27-25). Pirates love playing at home (5-2 for the season) and are comfortable playing in tight games. RB Keaton Mitchell (975 rushing yards, 10 TDs), WR Isiah Winstead (929 receiving yards, 3 TDs) and WR C.J. Johnson (825 receiving yards, 9 TDs) are the three headed offensive monster for East Carolina. Experience and consistent QB play will help Houston stay in this game until the final buzzer, despite being a 6.0 point road underdog.
3. NC State vs. Louisville
NC State beat Florida State in Week 7 (19-17) to get to 5-1, but they also lost starting QB Devin Leary for the rest of the season due to a bad shoulder/pec injury. Wolfpack have rallied to go 2-2 since Leary’s exit and have adjusted quickly to a running offense. Freshman QB MJ Morris has played the last three games (648 passing yards, 7 TDs), and is progressing better than expected. Defense is only allowing 18.1 points per game.
Cardinals will hopefully roll out NFL ready QB Malik Cunningham (1552 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 561 rushing yards, 11 TDs), but he’ll be a game time decision with a shoulder injury. RB Tiyon Evans, RB Jawhar Jordan and WR Tyler Hudson will pick up the slack if Cunningham is a no go. Louisville is a sound 4.0 point home favorite, but if their star QB is on the bench, NC State will hang around late in the third quarter.
2. Boise State vs. Wyoming
There are times when this blogger looks at the weekly games and betting lines, and a matchup literally leaps off the page. Usually that matchup is from a Power 5 conference and it has a 50/50 chance of making the weekly predictions. For some reason I’m back at the ultimate risk vs. reward conference (Mountain West), and my metrics are about to go out the window.
Boise State enter this game at 7-3, with two quality losses to Oregon State and BYU. Haven’t lost a conference game yet (6-0). Are in the drivers seat to get to the Mountain West Conference championship game on 12/3/22. Freshman QB Taylen Green is big (6′-6″, 220 lbs), to be running a dual threat offense. Currently has 1300 passing yards, 7 passing TDs, 294 rushing yards, and 6 rushing TDs. RB George Holani has had a solid season (845 rushing yards, 10 TDs). There’s not much depth or statistics from the receiving corps.
Cowboys started the season with a bad loss to an underrated Illinois team in Week 1 (37-6). The lightbulb then went on for the entire offense and have won seven out of nine games since Week 1. Currently on a four game winning streak and playing at home in Laramie, Wyoming in late November. Temperature at kickoff is expected to be 32 degrees F or lower, with no moisture expected. Going to see a ton of RB Titus Swen (752 rushing yards, 7 TDs) carrying the rock for four quarters. If Wyoming can limit turnovers and get their defense off the field on third downs, this game will be decided in the fourth quarter. Try to ignore the 14.0 point road favorite betting line, since it doesn’t make any sense.
1. Utah vs. Oregon
This matchup was going to have CFP implications until the Ducks lost at home to Washington in Week 11 (37-34). Now the winning team will have the inside track to play in the 2023 Rose Bowl. Utes enter this matchup at 8-2 and on a four game winning streak. Have a season defining win over USC in Week 7 (43-42). QB Cameron Rising has picked up right where he left off in 2021 (2225 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 335 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs). RB Tavion Thomas, TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Devaughn Vele continue to score touchdowns (19 total TDs). Defense is stout due to only giving up 327.9 yards and 20.0 points per game. Utah is kryptonite to Oregon due to winning four out of the last seven games played.
Oregon is now left to pick up the pieces of a season that won’t reach the CFP semi-finals. QB Bo Nix (2775 passing yards, 24 passing TDs, 516 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs), will be a Heisman Trophy finalist, but is questionable for this game. RBs Bucky Irving and Noah Wittington will continue to keep defenses honest and set up play action passes. WR/TE corps goes seven players deep and they’ll need to step up to keep this high octane offense moving forward. Defense is still getting torched for 27.4 points per game. Time to see if Dan Lanning’s coaching style has rubbed off on this roster of players.
When they faced adversity in 2021, the Ducks folded like a rusty lawn chair. This is too good of a team to mail in the rest of the season. Utes seem to have the Ducks number and will cover the 2.0 point road favorite betting line.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #13
- Crank up the hype for Notre Dame vs. USC and Michigan vs. Ohio State
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #12?
- Can the Big 12 or PAC-12 get a team into the 2023 CFP?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #12 and try again in week #13.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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