This article covers the most exciting week 13 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 12 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 thanks to Michigan, TCU, Georgia, Oklahoma and USC
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 thanks to Houston
Overall picks – 6/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 46/60
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 24/60
Overall picks – 70/120 which is one standard deviation above the mean
Week 13 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. NC State vs. North Carolina
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 11/25/22 from Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The first of seven intrastate rivalries that highlight the last week of the 2022 college football regular season. Wolfpack head into this game at 7-4 and on a tough two game losing streak. Three quality wins (Texas Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest) have NC State dreaming of a bowl game that will help solidify an up and coming program. Head coach Dave Doeren has cobbled together a revised offensive lineup without injured QB Devin Leary since Week 6. Do they have enough trick plays to keep up with the high scoring Tarheels offense?
North Carolina enters this matchup at 9-2 and trying to forget the putrid second half they played against Georgia Tech in Week 12 (lost 21-17). Need to avoid looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game in Week 14 against Clemson. Freshman QB Drake Maye has had a phenomenal season with 3614 passing yards, 34 passing TDs, 597 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs. Offense is currently ranked eighth in the county with 492.7 yards and 38.0 points per game. Should keep the Tarheel blue rolling against a worn out defense.
Prediction: North Carolina is a solid 6.5 point home favorite and they’ll win an offensive shootout by 10+ points
4. Kansas vs. Kansas State
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 11/26/22 from Manhattan, Kansas. Jayhawks lead this series 64-50-5, but the Wildcats have won thirteen straight games since 2009. Last close game was in 2018 (21-17). Kansas is 6-5 on the season and have lost five of their last six games. Head coach Lance Leipold was just rewarded with a contract extension through the 2029 season. Were sitting at 5-0 and ranked in the Top 25 until reality set in, when they got into the meat of their Big 12 schedule. Defense has been cratering over the last month due to allowing 452.5 yards and 32.6 points per game.
Wildcats have been relevant for the entire season and enter this game at 8-3. Need to avoid looking forward to a potential berth in the Big 12 Conference Championship game on 12/3/22, against undefeated TCU. Two headed QB monster of Adrian Martinez and Will Howard, clearly shows that Kansas State is versed in both a running and passing offense. RB Deuce Vaughn (1148 rushing yards, 6 TDs) and WR Malik Knowles (669 receiving yards, 2 TDs) lead a diverse offensive corps. Head coach Chris Klieman will be a dark horse candidate for several schools, due to his hard work paying off in a seamless transition from North Dakota State to Kansas State.
Prediction: Kansas State is a big 11.5 point home favorite and they’ll roll to a 14 point win
3. Michigan vs. Ohio State
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/26/22 from Columbus, Ohio. Big Ten conference battle royale that has massive CFP implications. Wolverines lead this series 59-51-6 and won the last matchup in 2021 (42-27). Michigan has a stout defense (241.3 yards and 11.7 points allowed per game). Offensive unit is crossing their fingers that elite RB Blake Corum (1847 rushing yards, 18 TDs) is able to play, after sustaining a knee injury in Week 12. If backup RB Donovan Edwards is unable to play, Wolverines are going to rely on QB J.J. McCarthy to manufacture some offense. That plan B isn’t vetted or even viable on a stage this big.
Buckeyes beat Notre Dame in Week 1 (21-10) and haven’t looked back. Maryland pushed Ohio State late in the fourth quarter in Week 12, before being stopped by their top notch defense (283.4 yards and 16.9 points allowed per game). QB C.J. Stroud (2991 passing yards, 34 TDs) has been quiet for three straight games and is due for a monster game when the stakes are high. Need a big game from the triplicate RB corps of Miyan Williams (13 TDs), TreVeyon Henderson (6 TDs) and Dallen Hayden (5 TDs). Sophomore WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is now the leader of a deep receiving corps with 1037 receiving yards and 11 TDs. He might have some good football genes.
Prediction: Ohio State is a steady 7.5 point home favorite and will win a defensive slugfest by 10 points
2. South Carolina vs. Clemson
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Clemson, South Carolina. Gamecocks are still sky high after beating Tennessee in Week 12 (63-38). Transfer portal QB Spencer Rattler has been inconsistent this season (2420 passing yards, 16 total TDs). Keep having a bad dream that he ends up with the Denver Broncos…the horror, the horror. RB MarShawn Lloyd just scores touchdowns (556 rushing yards, 9 TDs). WR Antwane Wells Jr. leads a five player deep WR/TE corps with 767 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Head coach Shane Beamer is building a sleeping giant in the SEC East.
Tigers are 10-1 heading into this matchup and ranked #8 in the CFP. Need to win this game and then beat North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game on 12/3/22. Hopefully receive a lot of help from other teams to move up in the CFP standings. Stranger things have happened (see 2014 CFP). QB DJ Uiagalelei still can’t beat Notre Dame, but he’s bounced back nicely in 2022 (2412 passing yards, 27 total TDs). RB Will Shipley (13 TDs) and WR Antonio Williams (3 TDs) lead a deep offensive unit. Defense quietly holds opponents to 318.7 yards and 20.0 points per game.
Prediction: Clemson is a valid 14.5 point home favorite and will win an entertaining game by 10 points
1. Notre Dame vs. USC
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Los Angeles, California. Fighting Irish lead this series 48-36-5 and have won the last four meetings. Currently trending up at 8-3 and on a five game winning streak. Had a season defining victory over Clemson in Week 10 (35-14). QB Drew Pyne isn’t lighting the world on fire, but he’s been very efficient during the winning streak with 9 passing TDs and only 3 INTs. RB Audric Estime has been steadily improving the entire season with 782 rushing yards and 11 TDs. TE Michael Mayer has disappeared off the stats sheet for the last four games, but has NFL scouts drooling with 711 receiving yards and 7 TDs. Head coach Marcus Freeman has his squad back on the right track.
Trojans found a new offensive gear to outlast UCLA in Week 12 (48-45). QB Caleb Williams is now on the Heisman Trophy leaderboard with 3480 passing yards, 33 passing TDs, 316 rushing yards, and 7 rushing TDs. Senior RB Austin Jones earned the starting tailback spot with 120 rushing yards and 2 TDs in Week 12. Jones hits the hole at the line of scrimmage with authority and gets stronger as the game gets longer. WR Jordan Addison is getting healthy just in time for the stretch run with 765 receiving yards and 8 TDs. Can’t look ahead to the PAC-12 Championship game on 12/2/22, until they take care of business on their home field.
Prediction: USC is a 5.5 point home favorite and this game will be very physical. Trojans grind out a 9 point win.
Week 13 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might
5. Tulane vs. Cincinnati
Both teams head into this game at 9-2 and the winner will play in the American Athletic Conference Championship game on 12/3/22. The losing team will need some help to have a rematch on 12/3/22. Green Wave has been a big surprise with quality wins over Kansas State, Houston and East Carolina. QB Michael Pratt (2220 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 317 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs), continues to work on his craft in anonymity. Ditto for RB Tyjae Spears who has 996 rushing yards and 12 TDs. Bearcats have a similar season resume and something will have to give in this matchup. Senior QB Ben Bryant (2732 passing yards, 21 TDs) has been steady the last five games, but he will be a game time decision due to an injured foot. Green Wave is ready to crash this game despite being a 1.0 point road underdog.
4. Arizona State vs. Arizona
Battle of two PAC-12 cellar dwellers will determine a winner in the 2022 edition of the Duel in the Desert. Arizona leads the series 49-45-1 and have lost five straight games to the Sun Devils. Arizona State has bad losses to Northern Arizona, Eastern Michigan and Stanford. Have one quality and inexplicable win over Washington (45-38) in Week 6. Ex-head coach Herm Edwards set this program back at least two-to-three years, with questionable recruiting practices under his watch.
This blogger remembers when the Wildcats had the Desert Swarm defense in the early 1990s under head coach Dick Tomey. Times have changed in Tucson and Arizona is definitely a basketball school and football is almost an afterthought. Head coach Jedd Fisch has improved from 1-11 in 2021 to 4-6 in 2022, but he’s got a mountain to climb to get this program competitive again. Sun Devils have a chip on their shoulder and won’t be fazed due to being a 4.0 point road underdog.
3. Oregon vs. Oregon State
Ducks lead the Civil War series 67-48-10 and won the last meeting in 2021 (38-29). Oregon has won twelve out of the last fourteen times these two teams have met. Beavers won in 2016 (34-24) and in 2020 (41-38). Oregon bounced back in Week 12 with a hard fought win over Utah (20-17), which keeps them in the PAC-12 Championship game and Rose Bowl hunt. Oregon QB Bo NIx played on a gimpy ankle in Week 12 and focused solely on throwing the football instead of running (287 passing yards, 1 TD).
Beavers have three quality losses to USC, Utah and Washington. Oregon State RB Damien Martinez (867 rushing yards, 7 TDs) and WR Tre’Shaun Harrison (589 receiving yards, 4 TDs) aren’t household names, but they will be motivated to sink the Ducks. Oregon is a small 3.0 point road favorite and they are ripe for an upset by the underrated Beavers.
2. Washington vs. Washington State
Huskies lead the Apple Cup series 74-33-6 and the Cougars won the last meeting in 2021 (40-13). Washington has won ten out of the last twelve games between these two teams. Kalen DeBoer signed a two year contract extension earlier this week, that keeps him as the Huskies head coach through the 2028 season. QB Michael Penix Jr. has been the biggest “jewel” of the 2022 transfer portal, due to throwing for 3869 passing yards and 26 TDs. His pending decision to jump to the NFL or return for his senior season, will be the biggest debate in the PNW.
Washington State is riding a three game winning streak and wants to prove the 2021 victory wasn’t a fluke. Sophomore QB Cameron Ward has shown moments of brilliance (2772 passing yards, 21 TDs), followed by moments of ineptitude (8 INTs). If Ward can show calm under pressure and have some long drives in Pullman, WA, the Cougars will have another Apple Cup win despite being a 1.5 point home underdog.
1. Louisville vs. Kentucky
Interesting ACC vs. SEC matchup to determine which school has bragging rights in the state that hosts the Kentucky Derby. Cardinals have four quality wins (UCF, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, NC State) and one quality loss (Florida State). QB Malik Cunningham is a game time decision due to an injured shoulder. Backup QB Brock Domann was decent in the Week 12 win over NC State, but the underrated Kentucky DL and LB corps will bring a lot of pressure. Wildcats stumble into this game at 6-5 and on a two game losing streak. Played #1 ranked Georgia tough in Week 12, before losing 16-6. QB Will Levis and RB Chris Rodriguez will try to make their final senior game at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky a memorable one. Cardinals are a 3.0 point road underdog and have a feeling they will hang around for sixty minutes if Cunningham plays.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #14
- Crank up the hype for ten conference championship games on 12/2-12/3/22
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #13?
- Can the Big 12 or PAC-12 get a team into the 2023 CFP?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 week #13 and try again in week #14.
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