Pro Football Top 5 Exciting Games Week 14 – 2022

This article covers predicted Pro Football top 5 games to watch and top 5 upsets. Thursday night football is right around the corner on 12/8/22 and that means pro football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl 55 at their home field (Raymond James Stadium) to close out the 2020 NFL season. Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl 56 at their home field (SoFi Stadium) to close out the 2021 NFL season. Since trends usually happen in threes, will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona? Time will tell after eighteen weeks of the regular season.

2022 Week 13 Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Buffalo, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Dallas

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 correct thanks to Detroit and Las Vegas

Overall picks – 6/10 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean

2022 All Picks Recap

Top 5 games to watch – 49/65 correct

Top 5 upsets that could happen – 30/65 correct

Overall picks – 79/130 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean

Pro Football Top 5 Games to Watch

5. New York Jets vs. Buffalo

Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York on 12/11/22. Jets are 7-5 and currently on a win, lose pattern for their last six games. Third game of the Mike White experiment as the starting QB. White came back down to earth in Week 13 (31 completions in 57 pass attempts, 369 passing yards), but really hurt his team with two badly timed interceptions. Still searching for a consistent running game and Zonovan Knight continues to trend up based on the last two games. Currently holding onto the #7 seed in the AFC playoff race and need to string some wins together to remain in contention.

Bills are riding a quiet three game winning streak and currently the #1 seed in the AFC playoff race. QB Josh Allen is starting a push for the NFL MVP award, due to his growing and gaudy statistics (3406 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 581 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs). RB Devin Singletary (603 rushing yards, 4 TDs) is doing just enough to keep defenses from keying on Allen. Defense is starting to leak oil due to allowing 320.2 yards and 17.4 points per game. Three of their last five games are against AFC East Division rivals.

Prediction: Buffalo is a sound 10.0 point home favorite and want revenge due to losing to the Jets in Week 9 (20-17). Bills pressure White into three big turnovers and win by 9+ points.

4. Philadelphia vs. New York Giants

Early afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EST) from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on 12/11/22. Eagles are 11-1 and firmly back in cruise control in all three phases of the game. Dismantled a good Tennessee squad in Week 13 (35-10), and are keeping the gas pedal down in the NFC East Division race. Well documented this week by the talking heads (i.e. experts), that QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown (950 receiving yards, 9 TDs) have had instant on-field chemistry since Week 1. Helps that Philadelphia has the best WR corps in the NFL (Brown, DaVonta Smith, Quez Watkins).

Giants squandered a big chance to keep up in the NFC East Division in Week 13, due to tying Washington (20-20). Three of their last five games are against NFC East rivals, so they still have a chance to make some noise. QB Daniel Jones has been consistent throwing the ball the last four games (5 TDs, 2 INTs), and seems to know when he can change a game’s momentum by running the ball on his own (522 rushing yards, 4 TDs). RB Saquon Barkley (1055 rushing yards, 8 TDs) is questionable to play this week, due to a neck injury. Barkley has regressed badly the last three games (2.8 yards per carry), and hopefully he’s not wearing down physically. G-Men need him to play well to maintain their statistical chance.

Prediction: Philadelphia is a big 7.0 point road favorite and they grind out a 6 point win

3. Miami vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Primetime evening kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from SoFi Stadium in Englewood, California on 12/11/22. Dolphins were taught a humbling lesson in Week 13 by San Francisco (33-17 loss). Its not how you start, its how you finish and good defense always shuts down a good offense. Miami only trails Buffalo by one game in the AFC East Division, and are sitting in the #6 AFC playoffs slot. Four of their last five games are against teams with 0.500+ winning percentages. QB Tua Tagovailoa and his buddies need to play focused ball to remain in the AFC playoff picture.

Chargers still have a bad taste in their mouth due to losing to lowly Las Vegas in Week 13 (27-20). Currently trending in the wrong direction, having lost three of their last four games. Continue to be the biggest tease in the NFL due to their high powered offense, only to be undone by a porous defense (371.7 yards and 25.8 points allowed per game). Second year head coach Brandon Staley loves to focus on analytics and trying to convert fourth downs, when common sense and logic dictate to punt the ball or attempt a field goal. Staley needs to find the next Peter Brand as soon as he gets to the NFL.

Prediction: Miami is a shaky 3.0 point road favorite in the Sunday night flex game of the week and they find another defensive gear to win a tight game by 4 points

2. New England vs. Arizona

Primetime evening kickoff (8:20 PM EST) from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on 12/12/22. Matchup of two teams that seem to be treading water in the deep end of the pool. Neither team wants to get out of the pool, swim to the shallow end or ask for a flotation device. Go figure. Patriots are 6-6 and still thinking about tough back-to-back losses to the Bills and Vikings. Offense is pedestrian due to averaging 318.9 yards and 20.8 points per game. Defense is the glue and bailing wire due to only allowing 311.8 yards and 18.8 yards per game.

Cardinals have been plagued with injuries and an unmotivated coaching staff. Still not convinced Kliff Kingsbury is head coaching material in the NFL. QB Kyler Murray (2359 passing yards, 14 TDs) seems to be improving, but still lacks downfield vision to try and move the chains. RB James Connor had a memorable game in Week 12 (25 carries, 120 rushing yards), and will be focused during the stretch run. Will the Cardinals relish the role of upsetting playoff teams in December or simply play out the string to improve their draft position? This blogger is tempted to flip a coin.

Prediction: New England is a 1.5 point road favorite and they win by 3 points due to their defense

1. Kansas City vs. Denver

Lock of the week is a late afternoon kickoff (4:05 PM EST) on 12/11/22, from Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado. Chiefs can’t explain how they lost to Cincinnati in Week 13 (27-24), except that Joe Burrow plays great on a big stage, and the Bengals defense has QB Patrick Mahomes’ number. Speaking of numbers, the Broncos are a lackluster 3-9 for the 2022 season and have lost thirteen straight games to Kansas City (that’s not a misprint). Feels like it was yesterday when Mahomes got his first NFL start, on 12/31/17 against Denver on the road. Despite having a quiet game statistically (284 passing yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 20 rushing yards), this blogger famously stated out loud “there goes the AFC West Division for the next ten years.” I wasn’t joking then and I’m not joking now, that Kansas City will make quick work of an overmatched and underprepared Broncos team. Bet the ranch if possible and please speak kindly about me to your grandkids.

Prediction: Kansas City is a sound 9.0 point road favorite and they coast to a 12+ point win

Pro Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen

5. Minnesota vs. Detroit

Minnesota is on a two game winning streak after close victories over the New York Jets (5 points) and New England (7 points). This squad is very comfortable in tight games and seem to thrive under pressure. Beat Detroit in a close matchup in Week 3 (28-24) with a diverse offensive game plan. Lions have won four of their last five games and are brimming with confidence on both sides of the ball. Have the seventh ranked offense (369.1 yard and 26.3 point per game) in the NFL. Defense is still ranked last (402.2 yards and 27.0 point allowed per game). Vikings will display all of their offensive weapons and not pay attention to being a 2.5 point road underdog.

4. Jacksonville vs. Tennessee

Jaguars are 2-2 in their last four games and seem to play better against AFC teams instead of NFC teams. Got badly outplayed by Detroit in Week 13 (40-14), and it was even worse on the stat sheet. WR Clinton Kirk (829 receiving yards, 7 TDs), might be the most underrated WR in the NFL. Titans are trying to rebound from a two game losing streak to Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Still have a comfortable 2.5 game lead in the AFC South, but are trending down during the most critical month of the NFL regular season. Need a WR to emerge as a go-to guy on third down to move the chains. Trio of Treylon Burks, Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine have their moments, but no sustained games of maximum output. Hard to be a standout WR on a dominant running team. Jaguars are 3.5 point road underdogs, but they’ll keep this game close for at least three quarters.

3. Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh

Steelers lead this series 32-24 and have won the last four games played during the 2020 and 2021 NFL regular seasons. Ravens are 8-4 and currently tied for first place in the AFC North with Cincinnati. Steelers are 5-7 thanks to a two game winning streak and hoping they are trending up at the tail end of the 2022 regular season. Baltimore continues to lean on QB Lamar Jackson to be Superman on every offensive play. Jackson is currently doubtful to play due to a knee injury. Backup QB Tyler Huntley will most likely get the nod at kickoff. Pittsburgh only plays two teams with a winning record during the last five games of the season. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s streak of fifteen winning seasons has a chance to remain active. Steelers are 1.5 point home favorites, but these two teams always play close and the Ravens could easily steal a win if they limit turnovers.

2. Tampa Bay vs. San Francisco

Buccaneers beat New Orleans in Week 13 (17-16) and had no business winning that game. Haven’t seen a Harry Houdini act like that, since John Elway and the Broncos snatched a victory from Kansas City early in the 1992 NFL regular season. Tampa Bay is now sitting at 6-6 and a 1.5 game lead over Atlanta in the NFC South. Does any NFC team want to face Tom Brady in the Wild Card round next month? That’s a rhetorical question. 49ers physically dominated Miami in Week 13 (33-17 win), but lost starting QB Jimmy Garappolo to a broken foot. Rookie QB Brook Purdy now gets the keys to a multi-faceted offense and will try to find cruise control. RB Christian McCaffrey’s role continues to evolve on a weekly basis and his workload will increase tremendously. Time for San Francisco to lean even more on their top notch defensive unit (only 283.9 yards and 15.8 point allowed per game). Tampa Bay is a 3.5 point road underdog, but they’ll be playing with house money left over from Week 13 and could grab a big win.

1. Cleveland vs. Cincinnati

AFC North battle between the Browns (5-7) vs. the Bengals (8-4). Cleveland is riding their longest winning steak of the season (two games) and could be a thorn for their opponents during the last month of the regular season. Three headed monster of QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Nick Chubb and WR Amari Cooper continue to score 24.2 points per game. Not to mention the Brownies dismantled Cincinnati in Week 8 (32-13). Bengals are on an impressive four game winning streak over Kansas City, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Carolina. QB Joe Burrow (3446 passing yards, 25 TDs) is playing his best ball of the season and his teammates are right beside him. Why do wisdom teeth patients in downtown Cincinnati remember that Burrow has never beaten the Browns during his short NFL career? That’s a sign this game will be much closer than anticipated at the The Jungle. Must watch television viewing for all football fans.

Storylines Heading into Week 15

• Who is leading the NFL MVP race after Week 14? Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes?
• Which coach is on the hot seat after Week 14?
• Crank up the hype machine for 49ers vs. Seahawks and Dolphins vs. Bills

Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of Pro Football Top 5 Week 14 and try again in Week 15.

Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!

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