This article covers predicted College Football Exciting Bowl Games Part IV (12/31-1/2/23). Bowl season continues on 12/31/22 and that means eight games will be played by 1/2/23. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Bowl Games Part III Picks Recap
Bowl Games Part III – 6/12 thanks to Arkansas, Oregon, Minnesota, Florida State, Washington and Maryland
Overall picks – 6/12 which is right at the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 48/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 26/65
Conference Championship Games – 6/10
Bowl Games Part I – 8/11
Bowl Games Part II – 4/10
Part III Bowl Games – 6/12
Overall picks – 98/173 which is one standard deviation above the mean
College Football Bowl Games Part III
8. Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/31/22 from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Crimson Tide finished the 2022 regular season at 10-2. Both losses were by a combined four points, which kept Nick Saban and his squad out of the CFP this season. Since the 2009 season, Alabama has missed playing in the BCS or CFP National Championship game during the 2010, 2013 and 2019 seasons. The 2013 season was turned upside down thanks to the kick six play against Auburn. Crimson Tide took their frustration out against Michigan State in the 2010 Capital One Bowl (won 49-7), and duplicated that in the 2019 Citrus Bowl against Michigan (35-16 victory). I pity the fool who gets to play a rested, hungry and pissed off ‘Bama team on 12/31/22.
Wildcats had a story book season going 10-3 and winning the Big 12 Conference championship game over TCU (31-28). Started the season as a run-read offense with transfer portal QB Adrian Martinez, highlighted by a monster road win at Oklahoma (41-34) in Week 4. Backup QB Will Howard filled in for an injured Martinez starting in Week 7, and Kansas State instantly shifted to a vertical passing offense without missing a step. Helps that all-purpose RB Deuce Vaughn (1425 rushing yards, 8 TDs), has been a patient runner. Some Wildcat fans have been comparing Vaughn to the best RB in program history, Darren Sproles.
Prediction: Alabama is a big 7.0 point favorite and they are licking their chops to play a Big 12 conference opponent. Relatively close game for 30-45 minutes and then the Crimson Tide pull away to win by 10 points.
7. Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/31/22 from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Big Ten vs SEC is usually a mismatch, but this matchup of 7-5 teams is hard to analyze. Hawkeyes had quality wins over Purdue and Minnesota, but the rest of their regular season was forgetful. Have won four out of their last five games, but lost to lowly Nebraska (24-17) in the season finale. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is completing his twenty-fourth straight season in Ames, Iowa and shows no signs of slowing down or burning out. Iowa is always prepared and plays tough in their bowl games.
Wildcats had quality wins over Florida, Mississippi State and Louisville. Quality losses to Ole Miss (22-19) and Georgia (16-6). Senior QB Will Levis has opted out of this game for the 2023 NFL Draft. Freshman QB Kaiya Sheron should get the starting nod and it’ll be interesting to see how he performs on a big stage against a historically sound program. Senior RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (904 rushing yards, 6 TDs) should have a heavy workload. Why does this blogger think that head coach Mark Stoops will have some trick plays up his sleeve?
Prediction: Iowa is a steady 2.5 point favorite and they grind out a 7 point win due to several time consuming drives
6. CFP Semifinal Game #1 at the Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs. Michigan
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EDT) on 12/31/22 from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. 2022 edition of the CFP is finally here and college football fans get to see the Big 12 vs. the Big Ten (yes that’s not another misprint). Horned Frogs had a memorable season at 12-1, despite losing the Big 12 Championship Game to Kansas State (31-28). Were comfortable playing in tight games, winning eight games by ten points or less. Seem to play better when trailing in the first half. QB Max Duggan was impressive during the regular season (3321 passing yards, 30 TDs, 404 rushing yards, 6 TDs), but will running for his life against the defensive line of the Wolverines. Senior PK Griffin Kell (16/18 FGs, 55/57 XPs, 103 points) may be the difference maker due to how closely these teams matchup on paper.
Wolverines have had a full year to reflect on how poorly they played against Georgia in the 2021 CFP Semifinal game (34-11 loss). They harnessed that negative energy and applied it on the road to Ohio State in Week 14 (45-23), and then coasted in the Big Ten Championship Game against Purdue (45-23). Can Jim Harbaugh’s squad play focused and fundamentally sound football against a team that they are favored to beat by 7.5 points? Or will they become predictable on offense, rely on their defensive secondary too much and suddenly they are in a dogfight with a streaky opposing QB? Welcome to the 2022 CFP Michigan fans, buckle your seatbelts for a rollercoaster ride.
Prediction: Michigan is a solid 7.5 point favorite but this game will be a physical chess match for sixty minutes. TCU head coach Sonny Dykes matches wits with Harbaugh and this game has more twists and turns than a good mystery novel. Wolverines win in walk-off fashion by 3 points due to senior PK Jake Moody.
5. CFP Semifinal Game #2 at the Peach Bowl: Ohio State vs. Georgia
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/31/22 from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Second CFP semifinal game has the Big Ten vs. SEC. How on earth did the Big Ten get two teams into the semifinals? That’s a story for another day pending how this season’s CFP ultimately plays out. Buckeyes finished the regular season at 11-1, due to getting physically pounded by Michigan in Week 13 (45-23). QB CJ Stroud (3340 passing yards, 37 TDs) and super sophomore WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (1157 receiving yards, 12 TDs) are dynamic offensive players. For some reason, when Ohio State trails in a game or loses focus on defense, top tier teams blow by them like a race car. Buckeyes will need to get some turnovers and play opportunistic offense to keep up with Georgia.
Bulldogs are trying to repeat as national champions, which hasn’t happened since the 2011-2012 Alabama Crimson Tide squads. Very balanced statistically during the 2022 regular season with the offense averaging 491.9 yards and scoring 39.2 points per game. Defense is suffocating due to only allowing 292.1 yards and 12.8 points per game. RB corps is four players deep and scored 24 rushing TDs. WR/TE corps is six players deep and scored 17 TDs. Not to mention head coach Kirby Smart has replicated an elite program model he learned from mentor and former boss Nick Saban. The current CFP favorite unless something really weird happens.
Prediction: Georgia is a 6.0 point favorite and they’ll break a sweat for the first half, until deciding to dominate the line of scrimmage in the second half and pull away to win by 14+ points
4. ReliaQuest Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Illinois
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 1/2/23 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Bulldogs will play this game with heavy hearts due to the sudden passing of head coach Mike Leach on 12/13/22, at the age of 61. Had a solid season going 8-4, highlighted by an Egg Bowl victory over rival Ole Miss (24-22). Junior QB Will Rogers had a big statistical season (3713 passing yards, 34 TDs). RB Jo’quavious Marks (532 rushing yards, 9 TDs) and WR Rara Thomas (626 receiving yards, 7 TDs) round out the offensive unit. Defensive unit has improved throughout the season and is only allowing 24.2 points per game.
Fighting Illini rode a six game winning streak during the middle of the season to end up 8-4. Took Michigan to the final play of regulation, before losing 19-17 in Week 12. Defense was the star of the entire season due to only giving up 263.8 yards and 12.3 points per game. Those statistics led to DC Ryan Walters being named the new head coach at Purdue in mid-December 2022. QB Tommy DeVito will hand the ball to underrated RB Chase Brown (1643 rushing yards, 10 TDs), to chew up valuable time of possession and then rely on field position and defense.
Prediction: Mississippi State is a 1.5 point favorite and they win a choppy game by 4 points
3. Cotton Bowl: Tulane vs. USC
Afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EDT) on 1/2/23 from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Green Wave went 11-2 and won the American Conference Championship Game over UCF (45-28). They deserve to be in the New Year’s Six bowl games of the 2022 season, after going 2-11 in 2021. Currently on a three game winning streak. Dual threat QB Michael Pratt (2776 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 395 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs), will get all of the media attention. RB Tyjae Spears (1376 rushing yards, 15 TDs) is the real MVP of this team. WR/TE corps goes five players deep and have scored 24 TDs. Head coach Willie Fritz will be a hot commodity if he continues to post double digit wins.
Trojans also had one of the biggest turnarounds from the 2021 season. Went from 4-8 to 11-2. New head coach Lincoln Riley brought a winning attitude to the USC locker room and a bus full of transfer portal players from Oklahoma. QB Caleb Williams (4075 passing yards, 37 passing TDs, 372 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs) won the 2022 Heisman Trophy. Despite badly straining his hamstring in the PAC-12 Championship Game, Williams should start this game. WR Jordan Addison won’t play due to an injured ankle. Rest of the WR/TE corps will need to step up in his absence. Perfect timing for senior RB Austin Jones (644 rushing yards, 5 TDs) to be a workhorse and carry the offense in his final game as a Trojan.
Prediction: USC is s small 2.5 point favorite and they grind out a 7 point victory in a high scoring game
2. Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Purdue
Afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EDT) on 1/2/23 from Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. SEC vs. Big Ten and this matchup could get out of hand quickly. Tigers bounced back under new head coach Brian Kelly and ended up 9-4. Was trending towards a New Year’s Six Bowl, but then inexplicably lost at Texas A&M in Week 13 (38-23). Transfer portal QB Jayden Daniels (2774 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 818 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs), started to master the offensive play calling in early November. Should be close to 100% healthy and ready to play in this game. WR Malik Nabers (854 receiving yards, 2 TDs) headlines the receiving corps, which has learned how to run block this season.
Boilermakers stutter stepped to an 8-5 record this season. Quality wins over Minnesota and Illinois. All losses were close except against Iowa (24-3) and Michigan (43-22). QB Aidan O’Connell will most likely opt out of this game, in order to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft. RB Devin Mockobee (920 rushing yards, 9 TDs) will be the offensive star, since WR Charlie Jones has also opted out of this game. Senior QB Austin Burton will probably get the starting nod, and his reward will be eleven angry Tigers in the box on the first play from scrimmage.
Prediction: No betting line due to Drew Brees being added to the Purdue coaching staff for this game. SEC typically owns the Big Ten in bowl games and that trend continues with LSU winning by 10+ points in a bad opt out matchup.
1. Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Utah
Early evening kickoff (5:00 PM EDT) on 1/2/23 from the Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, California. “The Granddaddy of Them All” has an old-fashioned Big Ten vs. PAC-12 matchup. Can only wish that the Nittany Lions play like the 2016 squad that lost the 2017 Rose Bowl to USC (52-49), in one of the best bowl games ever played. Utes played an epic game in the 2022 Rose Bowl against Ohio State, and barely lost (48-45). Hoping that James Franklin and Kyle Whittingham get into a coaching chess match, that elevates both teams to focus on simple plays and technical execution. Need that type of game to help start the countdown to the CFP national title game on 1/9/23.
Prediction: Utah is a steady 2.0 point favorite and have been a solid football team in 2021 and 2022. Utes finally break through the PAC-12 ceiling and win by four points.
Storylines to follow heading into the CFP National Championship Game
- Crank up the hype for the National Championship Game to be played on 1/9/23
- Any additional big name players turning pro before their college eligibility expires?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Bowl Games Part IV on 1/9/23 and try again in the CFP National Championship Game.
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