2022-2023 Playoff Picks Recap
2022 All Picks Recap
Conference Championships Round – 1/2 correct
Super Bowl 56 – 0/1 correct
1. Top 5 Games to Watch
Statistical Analysis: 69/89 correct, 77.5% accuracy rate, one standard deviation above the mean, +16.4% improvement from the 2021 season
Highlights: Correctly predicted 5 out of 5 games in Weeks 4, 8, 11, 12 and 18. This blogger should have bought lottery tickets on those weeks to keep the heater going.
Lowlights: Predicted only one game correctly in Week 3 with the Los Angeles Rams beating Arizona 20-12 on the road.
Comments: This section was the easiest to write on a weekly basis. Determined the five best games based on division standings and historical matchups. Several weeks this section could have listed up to eight games. Hard not to focus on the top tier teams (Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Minnesota, San Francisco) to simply pad the prediction statistics. Tried to use a variety of teams to ensure the weekly postings were as fresh as possible.
2. Top 5 Upsets that could happen
Statistical Analysis: 41/90 correct, 45.6% accuracy rate, one standard deviation below the mean, +4.4% improvement from the 2021 season
Highlights: Correctly predicted 4 out of 5 games in Week 1 and 3.
Lowlights: Going 1/5 in Weeks 4, 5, 6 and 8. Using a dart board would have been more accurate for those twenty games.
Comments: This section was the most difficult to write on a weekly basis. Several weeks this section could have listed less than five games. Predicted upsets for the first 70%-80% of the season based on division leading teams that I thought would lose. As my prediction statistics started to crater, I looked for betting lines that were favoring a double digit (10+ points) team and I would label that game the “lock of the week.” Can only pick against the weaker teams (Houston, Indianapolis, Denver, Chicago, Arizona) so many times and then it becomes anti-climatic. This may be considered gaming the statistical system, but it opened my eyes to how betting lines can and do change on a daily basis.
3. Wildcard Round
Statistical Analysis: 4/6 correct, 66.7% accuracy rate, one standard deviation above the mean, -16.7% deterioration from the 2021 season
Highlights: Would have been 6/6 for a 100.0% accuracy rate if Jaguars didn’t complete a 27 point comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers (thanks Brandon Staley), and the New York Giants caught Minnesota napping at home after a mentally draining regular season.
Lowlights: Should have gone with my gut feeling that Jacksonville and the Giants were trending up, instead of focusing on the betting lines and listening to the talking heads.
Comments: 66.7% accuracy rate is nothing to sneeze at, but this was based on twelve of the best teams in the NFL after Week #18. Teams trending up late in the season won their respective divisions and most talking heads could see the final scores easily.
4. Divisional Round
Statistical Analysis: 2/4 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean, +25.0% improvement from the 2021 season
Highlights: Picked Kansas City to beat Jacksonville by 7+ points and they won 27-20.
Lowlights: Didn’t pay attention to how well Cincinnati was playing on the road as they dismantled Buffalo in a light snow storm 27-10; really wanted Dallas to get past the divisional playoff round for the first time since 1992, but San Francisco kept that losing streak alive with a 19-12 victory.
Comments: Found out the hard way that the Bills were running on emotional fumes and couldn’t keep up with Joe Burrow and his buddies. Road games are not a disadvantage in this decade due to how closely the playoff teams matchup in this round of the NFL playoffs.
5. Conference Championships Round
Statistical Analysis: 1/2 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean, 0.0% change from the 2021 season
Highlights: Picked Philadelphia to beat San Francisco by 3 points and they cruised to a dominating 31-7 win.
Lowlights: Picked Cincinnati to win yet another road game at Burrowhead Stadium and Kansas City won a tight game 23-20. QB Patrick Mahomes channeled John Elway on a huge first down run on the final drive, which led to the winning field goal.
Comments: No complaints with the current playoff format of seven teams from each conference progressing through the brackets to the Super Bowl.
6. Super Bowl 57
Statistical Analysis: 0/1 correct, 0.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations below the mean, -100.0% deterioration from the 2021 season
Highlights: Wrote a thorough analysis that highlighted offense, defense, special teams, coaching and intangibles for both teams.
Lowlights: Picked Philadelphia to win by 3 points and Kansas City won by 3 points (38-35) in an instant classic game.
Comments: Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy called the best 30 minutes of his professional coaching life in the second half and Kansas City held on for their second title in in four seasons.
8. Looking forward to 2023
Overall 2022 Statistical Analysis: 117/192 correct, 60.9% accuracy, one standard deviation above the mean, +9.1% improvement from the 2021 season
Highlights: Was able to maintain a weekly posting cadence of ten games being analyzed and predicted.
Lowlights: Trying to end an 1/5 Mendoza Line streak for upsets in Weeks 4 thru 6.
Comments: 2022 was an exercise in keeping pace and opening my eyes to more of the pro football scene. That definitely happened and I can’t wait for the 2023 season hype to start in the late summer.
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