This article covers predictions for the First Round games of the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (i.e. March Madness). Tournament time is right around the corner on 3/17/23 and that means the best playoff in all of sports has reached the first round. Time to get into a daily and weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Kansas won the 2022 National Championship over North Carolina (72-69) in New Orleans, Louisiana. Jayhawks rallied from a 16 point deficit in the second half, to get head coach Bill Self, his second national championship (2008, 2022). The brackets are wide open in 2023 and the next three weeks will determine if Kansas repeats as champs, or if a new team ascends to the title throne in Houston, Texas on 4/3/23.
2022-2023 Season Recap
Weird regular season to say the least. Mike Krzyzewski retired as head coach at Duke and handed his whistle to Jon Scheyer. North Carolina started the season ranked #1, started to crater in late November 2022 and didn’t make the big dance in 2023. Several teams held the #1 ranking during the regular season (North Carolina, Houston Purdue, Alabama), but there was chaos in the Top 25 each week. Texas head coach Chris Beard was fired on 1/5/23. Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim retired on 3/10/23 after spending 47 years leading the Orange, including a national championship in 2003.
2023 First Round Picks
First Round (games played on 3/16/23) – 10/16 correct thanks to Alabama, Kansas, Maryland, Duke, Auburn, Texas, Northwestern, Tennessee, Houston, and UCLA
Overall 10/16
2023 Overall Picks
First Four (games played on 3/14/23 and 3/15/23) – 4/4
First Round (games played on 3/16/23) – 10/16
Overall – 14/20 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 March Madness First Round Games on 3/17/23
East Region – USC (#10 seed) vs. Michigan State (#7 seed)
Current betting line – Michigan State favored by -2.0 points
Analysis: Trojans finished third in the PAC-12 at 22-10. Had quality home wins over Auburn (74-71) and UCLA (77-64). Television announcers will overhype senior guard Boogie Ellis (18.0 PPG, 3.0 APG), since he basically runs solo on offense. Senior guard Drew Peterson (14.0 PPG, 4.4 APG) will continue to clean up messes made by Ellis. Spartans played over their heads early in the season with signature victories over Kentucky (86-77) and Villanova (73-71). Senior forward Malik Hall (9.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG) was injured in late November 2022, which caused the starting rotation to be out of whack for the entire season. Michigan State is typically battle tested and ready for March Madness, but not even close to form this year.
Prediction: USC springs a mild upset winning a choppy game by 7 points.
Midwest Region – Kennesaw State (#14 seed) vs. Xavier (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Xavier favored by -12.5 points
Analysis: Owls are dancing for the first time in program history, due to winning the ASUN conference championship game in a nailbiter over Liberty (67-66). Have gone 9-2 since early February 2023 to peak at the right time. Three headed monster of two guards (Chris Youngblood, Terrell Burden) and small forward Demond Robinson, will be fun to watch during the first half. Musketeers are back in Top 25 form, thanks to a second place finish in the Big East at 25-9. Quality wins over Connecticut, Marquette and a sweep of Providence highlighted their season. Head coach Sean Miller has Xavier back in the tournament for the first time since 2018. Try as many times as he can, Miller can’t get past the Sweet 16 no matter which program he is coaching.
Prediction: Xavier will flex their muscle and power game during the first half, showing they are properly seeded at #3 and win by 10+ points.
South Region – UC Santa Barbara (#14 seed) vs. Baylor (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Baylor favored by -10.5 points
Analysis: Gauchos went 27-7 in route to the Big West championship game victory over Cal State Fullerton (72-62). Hard to believe it’s been thirty-five years since UCSB first burst onto the March Madness scene in the 1988 tournament. Guard Brian Shaw got some big time television exposure during that season, and he was primed to be a successful head coach in the NBA after his playing career ended. Things haven’t gone according to form for Shaw, but he’s now a very good NBA assistant coach. Bears won the national championship during the 2020-21 Covid season. Finished third in the Big 12 at 22-10. Monster wins over UCLA, Gonzaga, Kansas, TCU and Texas. Longest winning streak of the season was six games, which doesn’t make any sense.
Prediction: Baylor’s scoring depth is too much for UCSB to overcome and they win by 9 points.
West Region – VCU (#12 seed) vs. Saint Mary’s (#5 seed)
Current betting line – Saint Mary’s favored by -4.5 points
Analysis: Rams cruised to the Atlantic 10 conference championship game and took care of business against Dayton (68-56). Currently on a nine game winning streak and have gone 17-2 since the calendar flipped to 2023. Upset Duke in the 2007 tourney as a #11 seed. Went all the way to the 2011 Final Four, as a team that played in the First Four games. Gaels used to be the other WCC team, that Gonzaga would get two or three conference wins from each season. That changed during the 2021-2022 season and St. Mary’s is a legitimate and dangerous team to play in an elimination game. Had an impressive twelve game winning streak and will gladly play any team, anywhere in the country.
Prediction: Lots of offense, several momentum shifts and one heck of a basketball game will lead to another upset as VCU wins by 3 points.
East Region – Vermont (#15 seed) vs. Marquette (#2 seed)
Current betting line – Marquette favored by -10.5 points
Analysis: Hockey school vs. basketball school matchup. Catamounts were sitting at 8-10 on 1/11/23, and promptly ran off a fifteen game winning streak. Winning streak is still intact, thanks to an easy victory in the America East Conference championship game over UMass Lowell (72-59). Golden Eagles have had a memorable season winning the Big East conference title game and having a 28-6 record. Have gone 19-2 since Christmas 2022. Talented roster with four players averaging 11.0+ PPG and they rebound well. Get ready for a deep bracket run.
Prediction: Marquette will go through a feeling out process during the first ten minutes of this game and then run open throttle to a 12+ point win.
Midwest Region – Pittsburgh (#11 seed) vs. Iowa State (#6 seed)
Current betting line – Iowa State favored by -4.5 points
Analysis: Panthers arrive in this round due to winning a First Four game over Mississippi State (60-59). Freshman forward Guillermo Diaz Graham had the game saving blocked shot with less than two seconds left in regulation. Can Pittsburgh have enough energy to make some noise and get to the Second Round? Cyclones finished fifth in the deep Big 12 at 19-13. Quality wins over North Carolina, TCU, Texas, Kansas State, and three wins over Baylor. Senior backcourt of guards (Jaren Holmes, Gabe Kalscheur) will try to dictate tempo and limit turnovers.
Prediction: First buzzer beater of the 2023 tourney goes to Pittsburgh and they advance with another 1 point win.
South Region – NC State (#11 seed) vs. Creighton (#6 seed)
Current betting line – Creighton favored by -5.0 points
Analysis: Hard to believe its been forty years since the Wolfpack simply won and advanced all the way to the national championship over Houston in 1983. Jim Valvano taught that squad about perseverance and believing in each other to make his own one shining moment. NC State went 23-10 with signature wins over Duke, Miami and North Carolina. Sophomore guard Terquavion Smith (17.5 PPG, 4.2 APG) might be playing to improve his NBA draft stock. A potential dark horse team that is getting no publicity prior to tipoff, is the Bluejays out of the Big East. Have five players averaging 11.9+ PPG and a team that loves the three-pointer. If head coach Greg McDermott can get his guys to play some defense, Creighton will make some waves in this tourney.
Prediction: Creighton shows off their inside-outside offensive sets and win easily by 10+ points.
West Region – Iona (#13 seed) vs. UConn (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Connecticut favored by -9.0 points
Analysis: Gaels went 27-7 and won the MAAC Championship game easily over Marist (76-55). Have quality wins over Princeton and Vermont. Best player name in the tournament, is junior forward Nelly Junior Joseph (15.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.1 APG) and he can play ball. Starting backcourt averages 32.5 PPG per game. Huskies finished fourth in the rugged Big East at 25-8. Junior forward Adama Sanogo (16.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins (16.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG), will play pick and pop as long as Iona’s defense allows them to do so. Deep and talented roster that will make some noise in this bracket.
Prediction: Connecticut is pushed early in the second half before pulling away for a 10 point win.
East Region – Fairleigh Dickinson (#16 seed) vs. Purdue (#1 seed)
Current betting line – Purdue favored by -23.0 points
Analysis: Knights advanced to this First Round game due to a thorough win over Texas Southern (84-61) in a First Four game played on 3/15/23. FDU’s seventh trip to the Big Dance will most likely end this round, unless something really strange happens. Boilermakers had a remarkable season going 29-5 and winning the Big Ten regular season and tournament championship. Started the season on a thirteen game winning streak, had a nine game winning streak at mid-season, and then closed the regular season with a five game winning streak. Offense runs through uber-talented junior center Zach Edey (22.3 PPG, 12.8 RPG), and he’ll feast on the Knights front court.
Prediction: Purdue was rejuvenated during the Big Ten tournament and they win by 16+ points.
East Region – Providence (#11 seed) vs. Kentucky (#6 seed)
Current betting line – Kentucky favored by -4.0 points
Analysis: Tough game to pick due to how close these teams matchup on paper. Friars finished fourth in the crowded Big East at 21-11. Had quality wins over Marquette, Connecticut, and Creighton. Skidded to the regular season finish line on a three game losing streak. Small starting lineup (three guards, two forwards) all average 10.0+ PPG and are led by sophomore Bryce Hopkins (16.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.3 APG). Wildcats had a below-average season at 21-11 and finished third in the competitive SEC. Had three separate four game winning streaks, but couldn’t find a consistent gameplan and stick with it. Senior forward Oscar Tshiebwe (16.5 PPG, 13.1 RPG) needs to get his teammates involved early and often, or he’ll have tough sledding in this game.
Prediction: Will be a defensive slugfest for forty minutes and Kentucky executes better offensive possessions late in the game to win by 3 points.
Midwest Region – Drake (#12 seed) vs. Miami (#5 seed)
Current betting line – Miami favored by -2.0 points
Analysis: Drake had a great season at 27-7 and won the MVAC championship game easily over Bradley (77-51). Have gone 16-2 since the calendar flipped to 2023. Sophomore guard Tucker DeVries (19.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.8 APG) will remind basketball fans from the 1980s of Craig Ehlo. Ehlo is still trying to recover from Game 5 of the 1989 NBA Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs. Hurricanes won the ACC regular season title at 25-7. Head coach Jim Larranaga just finished his twelfth season in Coral Gables, Florida. Larranaga is best known for leading George Mason University to the 2006 Final Four as a #11 seed. He’s also led Miami deep in the tourney (2013, 2016, 2022).
Prediction: ACC was down this season but Miami grinds out a 5 point win to advance.
West Region – Grand Canyon (#14 seed) vs. Gonzaga (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Gonzaga favored by -16.0 points
Analysis: Antelopes are not just an online university, they have a legitimate athletic department and are making their second appearance in the Big Dance (2021, 2023). Finished fourth in the WAC at 24-11 and won the conference tournament over Southern Utah (84-66). Have four players averaging 10.7+ PPG, so this team is the real deal and not a television commercial. Bulldogs had an “off” year at 28-5 and won the WCC championship game over Saint Mary’s (77-51). Head coach Mark Few is due to reach the pinnacle of college basketball, but he’ll have to guide this seasoned roster through a tough West Region and learn to just win and advance.
Prediction: A national park stands no chance against Gonzaga, in their preferred time zone to play a First Round game and the Bulldogs win by 12+ points.
East Region – Florida Atlantic (#9 seed) vs. Memphis (#8 seed)
Current betting line – Memphis favored by -2.0 points
Analysis: Yet another hard #8 vs. #9 seed to try and pick the winning team. Owls had a magical season finishing 31-3, won the Conference USA title by two games, and the conference tournament championship game over UAB (78-56). Had an impressive twenty game winning streak from late November 2022 to late January 2023. Guards Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin will run an up tempo offense of shoot first, ask questions later. Tigers have a famous coach (Anfernee Hardaway) and went 26-8 to finish second in the American Conference. Beat Houston in the conference championship game (75-65) on 3/12/23 to make a statement. Guard Kendric Davis (22.1 PPG) and forward DeAndre Williams (17..8 PPG) will run a ton of pick and pop plays to open up Memphis’ offense.
Prediction: Should be an entertaining game and a score fest. Memphis wins a back and forth game by 4 points to move on to the Second Round.
East Region – Montana State (#14 seed) vs. Kansas State (#3 seed)
Current betting line – Kansas State favored by -8.0 points
Analysis: Bobcats are currently on an eight game winning streak to finish at 25-9. Won the Big Sky Conference championship game over Northern Arizona (85-78), which knocked Eastern Washington out of the Big Dance. Have three starters who average 10.0+ PPG and run a small lineup (three guards) to push the pace. Wildcats started the season quickly at 15-1 in the Big 12. Had quality wins over West Virginia, Texas, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State and TCU. Ran out gas down the stretch to finish at 23-9. Senior forward Keyontae Johnson (17.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG) will continue to showcase his NBA ready skills as far as Kansas State advances through the brackets.
Prediction: Kansas State opens up their offense and plays a sound defensive game for forty minutes and wins by 10+ points.
Midwest Region – Kent State (#13 seed) vs. Indiana (#4 seed)
Current betting line – Indiana favored by -4.5 points
Analysis: Golden Flashes are making their seventh appearance in the Big Dance (1991, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2017, 2023). Advanced to the Elite Eight in 2002 and haven’t advanced out of the First Round since that season. Won the MAC championship game over Toledo (93-78) and have won ten out of their last eleven games. Hoosiers had moments of grandeur (beat #1 ranked Purdue 74-71), followed by taking two steps back (went 2-2 over the last four games). Senior forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 4.1 APG) will finally get big time television exposure outside of the Midwest. Hoosiers can be good, they can be bad, but they’ll definitely be maddening to watch for their fan base.
Prediction: Hoosiers will stumble for the first half and then get their bearings in the second half to win a tight game by 6 points.
West Region – Arizona State (#11 seed) vs. TCU (#6 seed)
Current betting line – TCU favored by -5.5 points
Analysis: Sun Devils advanced to this game with an impressive First Four win over Nevada (98-73) on 3/15/23. Three guard heavy lineup might finally be learning how to close out high pressure ballgames. Horned Frogs finished buried in fifth place in the Big 12 at 21-12. Had a dreadful February 2023 going 2-5 with a bad loss at lowly Oklahoma State. Easy to confuse TCU and Kansas State when passing by your television, due to similar color schemes and uniforms. Junior guard Mike Miles Jr. (17.3 PPG, 2.6 APG) will carry the offense for the entire game.
Prediction: Hard game to pick due to Arizona State’s up tempo offense vs. TCU’s possession offense. TCU executes better down the stretch in crunch time to move on by 3 points.
Same bat time, same bat channel in two days. I’ll review the results of the First Round games and try again in the Second Round of the 2023 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
Want to find this beer near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.
