2023 National Championship Game Recap
2023 March Madness Recap
Elite Eight Round – 1/4 correct
Final Four Round – 2/2 correct
Championship Game Round – 1/1 correct
1. First Four Round
Statistical Analysis: 4/4 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Used the right dartboard to get off to a quick start. Had a gut feeling that Pittsburgh and Arizona State were sleeping giants heading into the Big Dance and they didn’t let this blogger down.
Lowlights: None, except that I got lucky with Pittsburgh’s close win over Mississippi State (60-59).
Comments: This section got my feet wet in terms of writing a quick analysis for each tournament game. Was able to enjoy having a perfect round of predictions for about five minutes, since I had 48 games to research and type up during an extended four day Spring Break weekend. That workload seemed daunting as this crazy tournament was just getting started.
2. First Four Round
Statistical Analysis: 22/32 correct, 68.8% accuracy rate, one standard deviation above the mean
Highlights: Started 10/16 for the first day of games, but rebounded nicely on the second day of games going 12/16. I’ll take a 75% accuracy rate every day of the week, no matter what the task is.
Lowlights: Missed badly picking Virginia, Arizona, Purdue, Memphis, Texas A&M and Illinois to advance to the Second Round. Furman, Princeton, Fairleigh Dickinson, Florida Atlantic, Penn State and Arkansas proved yet again, that March Madness is the best tournament in all of sports.
Comments: Based on past tournaments, my goal was 24/32 if possible, to hit that magic 75% accuracy mark. First day had my stomach in knots due to Furman beating Virginia (68-67) and Princeton upsetting Arizona (59-55). Chalked up Texas A&M, Charleston and Illinois losing to the nuances of any team can win a game in a single elimination tournament.
3. Second Round
Statistical Analysis: 11/16 correct, 68.8% accuracy rate, one standard deviation above the mean
Highlights: Went 6/8 and 5/8 for some consistency when most folks’ brackets went up in smoke. Got lucky with Houston’s big second half comeback against Auburn (81-64). Finally trusted a decent SEC team (Tennessee) to knock an overrated Duke squad out (65-52).
Lowlights: Didn’t see a hungry and experienced Arkansas squad ready to eliminate a tired Kansas team (72-71). Thought Baylor and Indiana would show more intestinal fortitude before being eliminated by Creighton and Miami. I’ll never pick the Hoosiers again to get past the second round.
Comments: Second round is typically when the upsets start to happen, but this year that occurred more in the first round. Based on an old fashioned bracket of not getting to reset every round, I went 7/16 (43.8% accuracy rate). Can get used to the daily brackets reset exercise, if my prediction % continues to trend upward and not downward.
4. Sweet Sixteen Round
Statistical Analysis: 4/8 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean
Highlights: Picked UConn to dismantle Arkansas. Kansas State won an epic game against Michigan State, that ended up being one of the top two games of the entire tournament. Picked Texas and Creighton to advance, based on how their teams performed in the first and second rounds.
Lowlights: Thought a short handed UCLA squad would run and gun on Gonzaga and I was incorrect. Florida Atlantic continued to wear Cinderella’s slipper against Tennessee. Couldn’t predict that San Diego State would outshoot and outmuscle Alabama, in every phase of the game during the second half. Miami was in control from start to finish against Houston, and I had been duped by head coach Kelvin Sampson yet again. Wish I had the texts to prove it.
Comments: Rough round due to leaning into the higher seeds to advance, instead of looking at each matchup as two trending teams. Really should have picked Gonzaga and Florida Atlantic to hit that magic 75% goal.
5. Elite Eight Round
Statistical Analysis: 1/4 correct, 25.0% accuracy rate, one standard deviation below the mean
Highlights: Picked UConn to continue their path towards a national title, to beat Gonzaga by 1 point and they won by 28 points (82-54).
Lowlights: Continued to ignore Florida Atlantic, Miami and San Diego State as their respective squads continued to play solid basketball, as the stage got bigger and bigger.
Comments: No bueno this round at all. Should have picked Miami and SDSU to advance if I would have trusted my gut, but read and listened to the experts to sway my picks. Would have, could have, should have. I’ll never play horseshoes again at a summer picnic.
6. Final Four Round
Statistical Analysis: 2/2 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: San Diego State won a great game with a top notch defensive effort over the last six minutes of game time. UConn continued on their dominant path, even though Jordan Hawkins had an off game due to battling the flu.
Lowlights: None. Very entertaining start to the 2023 Final Four.
Comments: Decided to pay attention to the betting lines and tune out the experts for this round. Aztecs bailed me out in the first game with their switching man-to-man defensive sets. UConn continued to roll with a total team effort in all phases of the game.
7. Championship Game Round
Statistical Analysis: 1/1 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Picked UConn to win by 5+ points and they easily covered winning by 17 points (76-59).
Lowlights: None.
Comments: Great tournament and I maintained pace by predicting 67 games in three weeks. UConn definitely earned and deserved their fifth national championship in program history.
8. Looking forward to 2024
Overall 2022-2023 Statistical Analysis: 45/67 correct, 67.2% accuracy, one standard deviation above the mean
Highlights: Was able to maintain a daily/weekly posting cadence totaling 67 games that were analyzed and predicted.
Lowlights: Trying to move past a 1/4 Elite Eight round that had my head spinning.
Comments: 2023 was an exercise in keeping pace and opening my eyes to more of the men’s college basketball scene. That definitely happened and I can’t wait for the 2023-2024 season hype to start in the early fall
Want to find highly rated beers near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.
