This article covers the most exciting week 1 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Labor Day is right around the corner and that means college football is starting. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2022 season, had a modest success rate of 73.9% for top 5 exciting games and 40.0% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 57.1% (104/182 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2023 and continue to improve, for a third year player trying to avoid jumping in the transfer portal before lunch.
2022 Season Recap
Georgia blew out TCU 65-7 in the national championship game held at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Kirby Smart won his second straight national championship as head coach of the Bulldogs. The victory was Georgia’s fourth national title in school history (1942, 1980, 2021, 2022). Ohio State and Michigan were the other participating schools in the four team CFP. Thirty-nine bowl games were played. QB Caleb Williams, USC Trojans, won the Heisman Trophy with 4537 passing yards, 42 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns.
2023 Off-Season News and Notes
Conference realignment continues to wreak havoc for all FBS schools. Oregon and Washington bolted to the Big Ten. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are joining the Big 12. Stanford, California and SMU are headed to the ACC. PAC-12 has imploded with Oregon State and Washington State being the last two teams standing for the 2024 season. Football is king due to positive revenue streams at home games and massive conference television broadcasting deals. College basketball will now have weird season matchups and extensive travel due to the greed of the NCAA. Welcome back to semi-pro football for 2023 and beyond.
Week 1 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Colorado vs. TCU
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/2/23 from Fort Worth, Texas. The Primetime era officially starts for the suddenly relevant Buffaloes. New head coach Deion Sanders has overhauled the roster, locker room, coaching staff and culture. Now its time to see if his new players will tackle their new opportunity with gusto. Buffs Nation and this blogger who is a 1995 alumni, need to keep a realistic perspective on the 2023 season. Get three victories and continue to build a brand new program.
Horned Frogs were the feel good story of the 2022 season, until they got waxed by Georgia in the national championship game. New starters at QB, RB and WR will try to learn their roles quickly, playing against an undersized Colorado defensive unit. TCU’s front defensive seven will bring plenty of heat and pressure to the Buffaloes starting QB Sheuder Sanders. Entertaining game for the first twenty minutes and then reality sets in with the deeper program getting in a rhythm.
Prediction: TCU wins by 28+ points and stays relevant in the Big 12 for the month of September
4. Boise State vs. Washington
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/2/23 from Seattle, Washington. There has been a hidden coaching pipeline running from the Broncos program to the Huskies program since 2014. After taking a right turn at Albuquerque, New Mexico instead of a left, Washington hit paydirt with hiring head coach Kalen DeBoer from Fresno State in 2022. Transfer portal QB Michael Penix Jr. had a monster statistical season (4641 passing yard, 31 passing TDs), and is on the short list of Heisman Trophy favorites for 2023. Boise State quietly rolled to a 10-4 record in 2022. Went 8-0 to win the Mountain West regular season title, but seemed to run out of gas late in the season. Third year head coach Andy Avalos will have the Broncos ready to play in this road game, and his name will be mentioned for job openings the entire season.
Prediction: After a tight and bumpy 30 minutes, Washington will extend the field on offense and win by 17 points
3. West Virginia vs. Penn State
Evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 9/2/23 from University Park, Pennsylvania. Week 1 isn’t too early to have a night whiteout game in Happy Valley. Penn State will be hanging around the top of the Big Ten this season, hoping that Michigan and Ohio State blow a few tires in pit lane. Remember this name, Drew Allar, as the new starting QB at Penn State. He’s big (6′-5″, 243 lbs) and had a breakout summer camp. Young QBs can make or break a season. Mountaineers have been a perennial underachieving program for the past ten years, going 5-7 in 2022. Haven’t had a winning record since 2018, but always seem to show up in big games when least expected. This won’t be that game.
Prediction: Penn State feeds off the home crowd energy, a new vertical passing attack and win by 20+ points
2. Coastal Carolina vs. UCLA
Evening kickoff (10:30 PM EDT) on 9/2/23 from Pasadena, California. Late night west coast games have a tendency to surprise the rest of the country after they turn their televisions off at halftime. Chanticleers have won 9+ games for the last three seasons (2020-2022). New head coach Tim Beck will have to keep his squad grounded, despite playing at the most historical college football stadium of the last century. Junior Ethan Garbers has emerged as the new starting QB for UCLA due to a consistent summer camp. Chip Kelly loves a deep offense and he’ll have eleven RBs, seventeen WRs, and five TEs to choose combinations from. Is Kelly coaching football or playing Yahtzee?
Prediction: Most entertaining game of the weekend and UCLA grinds out a 9 point victory
1. Clemson vs. Duke
Primetime kickoff (8:000 PM EDT) on 9/3/23 from Durham, North Carolina. Would be a good ACC basketball game for a Wednesday night matchup. Clemson fan base has to be getting anxious, due to not being in the College Football Playoff since 2020. QB Cade Klubnik is the new face of this Tigers squad and he needs to mature in a hurry. There is no depth or experience at the QB position, if Klubnik continues to play like Larry Csonka. Head coach Dabo Swinney has his work cut out for him. Blue Devils are a sneaky good team that went 9-4 in 2022. Junior QB Riley Leonard has depth and experience in the RB and WR corps. Can Duke’s defense hang with Clemson’s offense for sixty minutes? That matchup will dictate the outcome of this game.
Prediction: Close game for three quarters and Clemson wins by 10 points
Week 1 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Fresno State vs. Purdue
Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 2022 campaign going 10-4, and finishing with a nine game winning streak. Junior QB Logan Fife will take the keys of the vertical passing game, and try not to run this car off the road. RB Elijah Gilliam is ready to be a workhorse and carry the rock 20+ times a game. Boilermakers went 8-6 in 2022, but are breaking in new starters at QB and WR. Highly touted new head coach, Ryan Walters, will bring a defense first attitude to Purdue. Despite having a new sheriff in town, Bulldogs have the intestinal fortitude and talent to overcome being a 3.5 point road underdog.
4. Washington State vs. Colorado State
The game no one wants to watch, let alone attend in Fort Collins, Colorado. Have to sympathize with the Cougars being left out to dry in the PAC-12, due to their big brother (Washington Huskies) moving to the Big Ten. Underrated QB Cameron Ward (3231 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs), has the tool box to run rampant in non-conference play. Rams are one of the worst programs in the FBS and went 3-9 in 2022. Second year head coach Jay Norvell has the right attitude to change his squad’s mindset, but the heavy lifting is just beginning. Washington State won last year’s game 38-7, but have a gut feeling Colorado State will hang around despite being 10.5 point home underdogs. This is almost a throw away pick, but keep an eye on the scoreboard in the second half.
3. UTSA vs. Houston
American Conference vs. Big 12 matchup. Roadrunners went 12-2 in 2021 and 11-3 in 2022. Starting QB Frank Harris (4059 passing yards, 32 passing TDs), continues to go to work each Saturday. In an ode to Orlando Woolridge, Harris wears #0 on his jersey. Cougars moving to the Big 12 actually makes sense geographically. Arrived on the national scene in 2021 (12-2), before taking a step back in 2022 (7-5). QB Donovan Smith will gladly take on the challenge of trying to match or beat Harris on the stats sheet. Last year’s game was an instant classic, with Houston winning in 3 OTs (37-35). Despite being 2.0 point home underdogs, Houston is due to start the season 1-0.
2. North Carolina vs. South Carolina
College football royalty (Mack Brown at North Carolina) vs. a youngster (Shane Beamer at South Carolina). Tarheels sophomore QB Drake Maye (4321 passing yards, 38 passing TDs, 7 rushing TDs), played like a man amongst boys in 2022. Now Maye gets to line up under center each week with high expectations of winning the Heisman Trophy. He’s the real deal but the transfer portal will be calling his name for the 2024 season. Gamecocks took a big step forward in 2022, due to beating three teams ranked in the Top 20. Despite still being overrated, QB Spencer Rattler has a chance to end his college career on a high note. For some reason, Rattler reminds this blogger of the latest version of Todd Marinovich and that’s not a compliment. This game will be high scoring with a lot of long passes and South Carolina won’t pay attention to being a 2.5 point home underdog.
1. LSU vs. Florida State
SEC vs ACC matchup is typically a one sided affair. Last year’s game had more twist and turns than a John Grisham novel, with Florida State winning 24-23 thanks to a blocked extra point at the buzzer. Brian Kelly righted his squad’s ship in 2022, with a mid-season defining win over Alabama in OT (32-31). QB Jayden Daniels matured quickly as a full-time starting QB and has a deep roster around him. Biggest question is his durability and staying healthy. Head coach Mike Norvell is starting to make inroads in Tallahassee, Florida and has shifted the Seminoles fan base away from the last decade of bad memories. Trio of senior QB Jordan Travis, junior RB Trey Benson and junior WR Keon Coleman will run roughshod over the ACC and most non-conference opponents. This game has a walk-off winning field goal feel to it, even though LSU is a 2.0 point road favorite.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #2
- Crank up the hype machine for Texas vs. Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #1?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #1 and try again in Week #2.
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