This article covers the most exciting week 3 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Saturday is right around the corner and that means college football is kicking off. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2022 season, had a modest success rate of 73.9% for top 5 exciting games and 40.0% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 57.1% (104/182 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2023 and continue to improve, for a third year player trying to avoid jumping in the transfer portal before lunch.
2023 Week 2 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to Colorado, Wake Forest, Oregon and Oklahoma
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to Miami, Cincinnati and Washington State
Overall picks – 7/10 and I’m above the mean
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 7/10
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 6/10
Overall picks – 13/20 which means I’m off to a good start
Week 3 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Penn State vs. Illinois
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/16/23 from Champaign, Illinois. Nittany Lions are off to an expected 2-0 start and haven’t played against a stout defensive front yet. Sophomore QB Drew Allar (529 passing yards 4 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD) is ahead of schedule running the Penn State offense. RB Kaytron Allen does the heavy sledding (154 rushing yards) and RB Nicholas Singleton gets the glory (4 rushing TDs). Sounds like a perfect fantasy football tandem. Fighting Illini are still trying to figure out how they lost to Kansas in Week 2 (34-23). QB Luke Altmyer (408 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 139 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs), needs some help from his RB corps. WR Isaiah Williams looks like the real deal as a possession receiver. Brett Bielema’s secondary may have to carry an underperforming defensive line.
Prediction: Penn State is stymied for 30-40 gametime minutes and then pulls away to win by 10+ points.
4. LSU vs. Mississippi State
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/16/23 from Starkville, Mississippi. Now we’re talking with an early season SEC intraconference matchup. Tigers still haven’t answered how or why they were manhandled by Florida State in Week 1 (45-24). This is when second year head coach Brian Kelly, typically does his best work when none of the experts are watching. Passing game has been above average so far, but the running game by committee needs significant fine tuning. Defensive line needs to finish plays by getting to the QB. Bulldogs senior QB Will Rogers (389 passing yards, 5 passing TDs) is off to a solid start. Senior RB Jo’Quavious is looking and playing like a workhorse (250 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs), who is ready for Sundays in the NFL in 2024. Need to find some depth in the WR corps, or those two players will be shut down by an above average defense.
Prediction: Close game for three quarters and then LSU has smart QB play calling in the fourth quarter to win by 8 points.
3. Minnesota vs. North Carolina
Afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/16/23 from Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Big Ten vs. ACC matchup in the tobacco belt. Trying to imagine how different both of those conferences will look in 2024. Gophers are 2-0 and have some experience and talent at the RB (Darius Taylor, Sean Tyler) and WR (Daniel Jackson, Corey Crooms Jr.) positions. QB Athan Kaliakmanis has the physical tools to play QB at a Power 5 school, but he struggles with extending a play and taking what the defense gives him. Also has a tendency to get stone feet when his OL doesn’t contain the pass rush. Tarheels stud QB Drake Maye (477 passing yards, 2 passing TDs), will definitely bounce back after a lackluster performance in Week 2 against Appalachian State. Keep an eye on a breakout star at RB, Omarion Hampton (271 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs). Hampton is built to run hard (6′-0″, 220 lbs) and north and south for sixty minutes. As long as head coach Mack Brown lets his assistants run the offense and defense, North Carolina will score a ton of points.
Prediction: Could be the game of the week or it could be a blowout. North Carolina covers and wins by 10 points.
2. Washington vs. Michigan State
Early evening kickoff (5:00 PM EDT) on 9/16/23 from East Lansing, Michigan. Huskies have looked focused and impressive with blowout wins over Boise State (56-19) and Tulsa (43-10). QB Michael Penix Jr. is averaging 430 passing yards and 4 passing TDs per game. If a statistician would extrapolate Barry Sanders 1988 Heisman Trophy winning stats, from an RB to a QB, you’d have the 2023 version of Penix Jr. He’s that good and will continue to stuff the stat sheet. Spartans head into this game with a dark cloud over their football program. This matchup in 2022 proved to be a bad turning point for Michigan State, with a flat team performance (39-28) that wasn’t that close on the scoreboard. Head coach Mel Tucker is currently suspended without pay, due to alleged bad behavior. Tucker’s days are numbered in East Lansing, no matter how his story unfolds during a campus hearing on 10/5/23. Expect the Spartans to simply go through the motions tonight.
Prediction: This could and will get ugly from a competition perspective. Washington doesn’t take their foot off the gas pedal and get a statement road win by 21 points.
1. Tennessee vs. Florida
Primetime kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) on 9/16/23 from Gainesville, Florida. This blogger still remembers when this game was the premiere matchup of September, during the Peyton Manning years as the QB at Tennessee. Hard to believe Todd Helton started at QB ahead of Manning, until fate intervened during the 1994 season. Volunteers are 2-0 and have an easy schedule if they beat the Gators. Only Alabama and Georgia currently loom large on their schedule. Transfer portal QB Joe Milton III (429 passing yards, 4 TDs) is driving the car flawlessly so far. Helps to have RB Jaylen Wright (233 rushing yards) continue to move the chains. Florida is trying to get some firm footing as SEC intraconference action starts. Transfer portal QB Graham Mertz (526 passing yards, 2 passing TDs) has the arm to hang with the big boys, but his squad is thin at RB and has only one WR (Ricky Pearsall). This is the blessing and curse of using the transfer portal to change skill positions on the fly.
Prediction: Surprisingly tight defensive game for sixty minutes and Tennessee wins by 3 points in walk-off fashion.
Week 3 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Kansas State vs. Missouri
Old fashion neighboring states rivalry between Kansas and Missouri. Wildcats have an offense that can score a ton of points with QB Will Howard, RB DJ Giddens and a four deep WR/TE corps. If Howard stays healthy, the 2023 Kansas State squad could replicate the 2022 TCU squad if they get some lucky bounces. Tigers gobble up significant yardage due to QB Brady Cook, RB Cody Schrader and WR Luther Burden III. Can that trio keep pace with the Wildcats, despite being a 3.5 point home underdogs? After losing this matchup badly in 2022 (40-12), Missouri will entertain their home fans.
4. BYU vs. Arkansas
This blogger is gung-ho about BYU’s chances during their inaugural season in the Big 12. Then I remember a bad fact, Kedon Slovis is their new starting QB. Every time I think Slovis will play well in a big game, he morphs into Jay Fielder and Mark Sanchez at the line of scrimmage and gets hesitant with the ball in his hands. Not the guy any coach would want starting a game on the road in an SEC stadium. Razorbacks can’t look past this matchup, due to having three of their next four games against Top 25 teams. Senior QB KJ Jefferson is officially the man in his fifth season (382 passing yards, 5 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD), but he stills creates too many turnovers. Arkansas always gags early in the season when they shouldn’t. Despite being an 8.0 point road underdog, BYU hangs around and might steal a big road victory.
3. TCU vs. Houston
Horned Frogs cleared their heads after losing to Colorado in Week 1 (45-42), and took some frustration out on Nicholls in Week 2 (41-6). QB Chandler Morris and RB Emani Bailey are racking up yards and TDs, but the WR corps needs to find a leader. If and when someone emerges from the WR/TE corps, TCU will start to look like the 2022 squad on offense. Defense is a topic for another day and a different posting. Thought the Cougars were primed and ready to breakout in the Big 12, but they squeaked by UTSA in Week 1 (17-14), and then laid an egg in a Week 2 loss to lowly Rice (43-41). QB Donovan Smith and WR Samuel Brown will have to continue to carry the load until their teammates wake up and play with some urgency. Houston is a bad 7.5 point home underdog and need to play well to keep this blogger’s interest and track record intact.
2. Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
ACC vs. Big Ten game that only the most diehard Hokies and Scarlet Knights fans will watch. Virginia Tech was supposed to make big strides this season in the win column. Don’t know if the Hokies can get criticized for losing to Purdue in Week 2 (24-17), after waiting out a six hour rain delay. QB Grant Wells (494 passing yards, 5 passing TDs) and WR Jaylin Lane (123 receiving yards, 2 TDs) got the rebuilding memo. Rutgers is a surprising 2-0 due to a game management QB (Gavin Wimsatt) and an undersized RB (Kyle Monangai). Head coach Greg Schiano ran a similar offensive set to success in 2006-2007, so he’s trying to get the band back together. Virginia Tech is a 7.0 point road underdog, but my dartboard says take a flier on them this week.
1. Syracuse vs. Purdue
Orange head coach Dino Babers always has his squad ready to play and they relish playing on the road. The difference in this matchup will be the opposing coach, Ryan Walters of Purdue. Walters has a defense first mindset, holds his players accountable and teaches in an old school manner. He’s a spitting image of Babers. This will be a fascinating game to watch two strategists match wits and see which guy blinks first. Take Purdue despite being a 2.5 point home underdog and enjoy the chess match.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #4
- Crank up the hype machine for Colorado vs. Oregon in Eugene.
- Tasty matchup with Ohio State traveling to play Notre Dame.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #3?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #3 and try again in Week #4.
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