This article covers the most exciting week 4 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Saturday is right around the corner and that means college football is kicking off. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2022 season, had a modest success rate of 73.9% for top 5 exciting games and 40.0% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 57.1% (104/182 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2023 and continue to improve, for a third year player trying to avoid jumping in the transfer portal before lunch.
2023 Week 3 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to Penn State, LSU, North Carolina and Washington
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 thanks to Missouri and BYU
Overall picks – 6/10 and I’m above the mean
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 11/15
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 8/15
Overall picks – 19/30 which means I’m off to a good start but need to avoid a regression
Week 4 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Florida State vs. Clemson
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/23/23 from Clemson, South Carolina. Seminoles looked like world beaters after convincing wins in Weeks 1 and 2. Were very lucky to beat Boston College in Week 3 on the road (31-29). The trio of QB Jordan Travis, RB Trey Benson and WR Johnny Wilson continue to pace an offense that averages 466 yards and 47.3 points per game. Transfer portal WR Keon Coleman made a huge splash in Week 1, but his picture is now on milk cartons due to be missing in action the last two weeks. Is this the season where Clemson runs out of magic and simply can’t waltz to the ACC Championship game? Offense is sputtering with QB Cade Klubnik at the line of scrimmage. RB Will Shipley looks angry and unfocused on the sideline. Defensive unit isn’t putting any pressure on the opposing QB and have forgotten how to tackle. Head coach Dabo Swinney doesn’t look nervous yet, but he’s eating Tums tablets like candy these days.
Prediction: Could be the most entertaining game of the week or could be a sleeper. Tight game into the fourth quarter and Florida State gets a huge road win by 7 points.
4. Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/23/23 from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. A very quiet and subdued Lane Kiffin brings his undefeated Rebels squad into a marque SEC matchup. QB Jaxson Dart (852 passing yards, 7 passing TDs) is playing lights out, due to looking like Josh Allen when he runs the ball (213 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). Three deep WR corps is currently averaging 231 receiving yards per game. Rebels can play this season, but how will they perform under pressure on the road. Every expert has been talking about the suddenly stagnant Alabama program and how they don’t have a top tier QB. Head coach Nick Saban is washed up, and newspaper writers already have draft obituaries written for the most dominant program in college football since 2009. This is when Saban does his best work and makes his coaching staff and players get back to fundamentals by playing good, sound football. Crimson Tide won’t lose back-to-back home games unless a destination resort suddenly freezes over.
Prediction: Close for sixty minutes and Alabaman wins a gut check game by 4 points
3. UCLA vs. Utah
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/23/23 from Salt Lake City, Utah. Top notch PAC-12 conference of two teams that are currently trending up. Bruins are off to a quiet 3-0 start, but haven’t beaten anyone yet with wins over Coastal Carolina, San Diego State and NC Central. Freshman QB Dante Moore (615 passing yards, 7 passing TDs) is already playing like an upperclassman. Three deep RB corps is averaging 270.3 yards per game, which helps keep an opponent’s offense on the sidelines. Hard to believe Chip Kelly is in his sixth season at UCLA. Utes won close games against Florida (24-11) and Baylor (20-13) to start this season. Two-headed attack at QB (Nate Johnson, Bryson Barnes) could end up being a blessing or a curse. Sophomore RB Ja’Quinden Jackson seems to be ready for a big workload and enjoys moving the chains. Might have the best name in college football with WR Money Parks (138 receiving yards, 2 TDs).
Prediction: Utah still owns the PAC -12 and they win by 10+ points
2. Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 9/23/23 from Notre Dame, Indiana. Rematch of the lackluster game won by Ohio State in 2022 (21-10). Buckeyes started slowly in Week 1 against Indiana (23-3), and then woke up in easy victories over Youngstown State and Western Kentucky. New QB Kyle McCord (815 passing yards, 6 passing TDs) just needs to throw the ball to WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (304 receiving yards, 3 TDs), and then watch the highlights on ESPN. Running game tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum are gelling like peanut butter and jelly. Fighting Irish are already 4-0, but haven’t played a team yet to make them sweat. Transfer portal QB Sam Hartman (1061 passing yards, 13 TDs) has made an immediate impact, and he reminds this blogger of Steve DeBerg. Audric Estime is a stud at RB and the WR corps goes six players deep with 123+ receiving yards each. Marcus Freeman was the right guy to be the new head coach in South Bend.
Prediction: Defensive game for the first three quarters then both offenses light up the scoreboard and Ohio State wins by 8 points
1. Iowa vs. Penn State
Primetime kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 9/23/23 from University Park, Pennsylvania. Early season Big 10 games are hard to get a feel for and then predict accurately. Hawkeyes are a solid 3-0 and are still smiling after beating Iowa State in Week 2 (20-13). QB Cade McNamara runs a very simple offense, due to handing the ball off to his RBs (Leshon Williams, Jaziun Patterson) on first and second down. On third downs, McNamara throws to his TE (Luke Lachey). Head coach Kirk Ferentz continues to run the same offensive system year after year. Nittany Lions are 3-0 and rolling on both sides of the ball. Timely QB play, depth at RB with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, and a stud WR (KeAndre Lambert-Smith), will make Penn State a tough team to play until Ohio State and Michigan show up on their schedule. James Franklin is officially a top tier head coach, but he’ll have to push this squad to a new level.
Prediction: Penn State wins the turnover battle and the game by 10+ points
Week 4 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Two programs in disrepair meet in College Station, Texas. Tigers are 3-0, but barely beat California in Week 2 (13-10). New head coach Hugh Freeze is trying to rebuild a car that ran smoothly a decade ago, but is still fun to take out on occasional vacation trips when the weather cooperates. Hard to keep the Auburn boosters happy in a program that has no vision. Speaking of boosters, when are they going to demand their money back from head coach Jimbo Fisher? Fisher “bought” the #1 ranked recruiting class in 2022, picked a fight with Nick Saban, and went 5-7. Texas A&M is off to a tepid 2-1 start in 2023. Most boosters wouldn’t put up with that lack of return on their investment. How much dead money is too much to keep Jimbo employed with the Aggies? Auburn is only an 8.0 point road underdog and would love to make the hot seat more uncomfortable for Fisher.
4. SMU vs. TCU
Why does this blogger keep getting drawn into these old Southwest Conference games to pick upsets? Used to focus on the Mountain West conference to analyze underdogs, but times have changed in 2023. QB Preston Stone is solid for SMU (798 passing yards, 9 TDs) and seems to make his teammates better around him. Consistent running game and a five deep WR corps could score a bushel of points on the road. Horned Frogs had a resounding win over Houston in Week 3 (36-13), but their zone defense still has significant holes. Currently allowing 364.7 yards and 21.3 points per game. That’s a glaring weakness the Mustangs will try to expose despite being 6.5 point underdogs.
3. Colorado vs. Oregon
Buffaloes are still relevant four weeks into the 2023 season. Now the PrimeTime effect will be tested by a deep and talented Ducks squad. Doesn’t help that Oregon’s head coach Dan Lanning threw some shade at Deion Sanders, when Colorado left the crumbling PAC-12 to join the Big 12. For the record, Lanning’s school jumped ship to the Big 10 a week later, so he might want to walk those comments back. Oregon is favored by 21.0 points at home in Eugene and are a legitimate national title contender right now. Reality will set in for Colorado this week, but this blogger thinks the Buffs will continue to surprise for at least three quarters. Ducks win this game but they don’t cover the spread. Stranger things have happened in 2023 so far.
2. BYU vs. Kansas
Both teams are 3-0 and the winner will have a leg up in the Big 12 standings. Cougars are going to make some noise in their new conference. Texas should be scared of their matchup on 10/28/23. QB Kedon Clovis is due for a big statistical game since he an off game in Week 3. Jayhawks had an impressive win over Illinois in Week 2 (34-23). Kansas is a run first offense with Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. leading the way. WR/TE corps goes four players deep. Bettors continue to like Kansas as a 9.5 point home favorite, but BYU will play hard for sixty minutes.
1. Oregon State vs. Washington State
Another 3-0 vs. 3-0 matchup and both teams currently have no conference to play for in 2024. Beavers can ball with DJ Uiagalelei at QB and Damien Martinez at RB. Three WR sets need to be used to determine the pecking order of a good receiving corps. Cougars are going to ride QB Cameron Ward (986 passing yards, 9 passing TDs, 95 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs), until he breaks. Ward seems to be playing footloose and fancy free. Easier word to describe that is confidence. A confident Washington State squad will win another close game at home to erase being 3.0 point underdogs.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #5
- Crank up the hype machine for Utah vs. Oregon State in Corvallis.
- SEC warms up with LSU visiting Ole Miss.
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #4?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #4 and try again in Week #5.
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