This article covers the most exciting week 5 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Saturday is right around the corner and that means college football is kicking off. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2022 season, had a modest success rate of 73.9% for top 5 exciting games and 40.0% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 57.1% (104/182 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2023 and continue to improve, for a third year player trying to avoid jumping in the transfer portal before lunch.
2023 Week 4 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 thanks to Florida State, Alabama, Utah, Ohio State and Penn State
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 thanks to Washington State
Overall picks – 6/10 and I’m above the mean
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 16/20
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 9/20
Overall picks – 25/40 which means I’m steady but need to avoid a regression
Week 5 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Georgia vs. Auburn
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/30/23 from Auburn, Alabama. Bulldogs make their first appearance in the 2023 blog posting, due to starting 4-0 and looking very capable of winning a third straight national championship. New starting QB Carson Beck (1184 passing yards, 6 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs), has stepped in and moves the chains with a vertical passing game. WR/TE corps goes seven players deep with 100+ receiving yards on the season. Running game is sputtering and not gaining much traction. Someone is going to have emerge soon, or the offense is going to become one-dimensional.
Tigers laid an egg in Week 4 against Texas A&M and lost 27-10. Have a brutal three game stretch of Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss to make early October very uncomfortable. This is the reason Hugh Freeze was hired, to steer a rusty ship through turbulent waters. Sincerely hope the Auburn athletic department didn’t give Freeze a free business cellphone to phone a friend.
Prediction: Georgia irons out their running game issues and wins easily by 20 points.
4. Michigan vs. Nebraska
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/30/23 from Lincoln, Nebraska. Wolverines have to be the quietest #2 ranked team in years. Defensive unit is currently allowing only 231 yards and 5.6 points per game. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is back from his three game suspension. QB J.J. McCarthy (915 passing yards, 8 passing TDs), has two stud receivers (Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson) to stretch the field. Senior RB Blake Corum (351 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs) will continue to move up in the Michigan record books.
Cornhuskers are on a two game winning streak due to beating Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech. First year head coach Matt Rhule has taken a page from the Tom Osborne school of coaching, by scheduling cupcake games before starting Big Ten conference play. Starting QB battle between Heinrich Haarberg and Jeff Sims gives the Bugeaters fan base something to watch, but it doesn’t translate well on the field. Rhule’s building a program from the inside out philosophy will take a long time to pan out.
Prediction: Workmanlike victory for Michigan by 14+ points.
3. Kansas vs. Texas
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 9/30/23 from Austin, Texas. Early season Big 12 matchup between two undefeated teams (both are 4-0). This game would be even better if it was both schools basketball teams. Jayhawks have to be one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season, with double digit wins over Illinois and BYU. QB Jalon Daniels is an adept game manager and has several offensive tools in his toolbox. Running game is clicking with Devin Neal and Danial Hishaw Jr. WR/TE corps is only four players deep, but they know their roles and move the chains.
Longhorns are playing with a ton of confidence and seem to be having fun with head coach Steve Sarkisian. Will need to stay focused on this game and not look ahead to the Red River Shootout in Week 6 against Oklahoma. Starting QB Quinn Ewers (1033 passing yards, 9 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs), makes things look easy at the line of scrimmage. Ewers doesn’t seem fazed with Arch Manning getting weekly reps with the practice squad.
Prediction: Entertaining game with Texas imposing their will in the second half and winning by 10+ points
2. Washington vs. Arizona
Late evening kickoff (10:00 PM EDT) on 9/30/23 from Tucson, Arizona. Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. (1636 passing yards, 16 passing TDs), is must watch viewing no matter what time his team plays. Two headed running attack (Dillon Johnson, Will Dixon), and a scary WR trio (Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan), clearly show that this Washington team isn’t a trendy coffee shop or music movement of the early 1990s. These boys can flat out play.
Wildcats are a shocking 3-1 on the season, thanks to a two game winning streak over UTEP and Stanford. Have been historically one of the worst programs in the country over the past ten seasons. On field chemistry between QB Jayden de Laura and WR Tetairoa McMillan will be worth watching during the first quarter. Pour a glass of whiskey or cognac during the second quarter and then rest until NFL games kickoff on 10/1/23.
Prediction: Washington lights up the scoreboard again and wins by 24 points.
1. USC vs. Colorado
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 9/30/23 from Boulder, Colorado. Trojans relied on muscle memory and going through the motions, in a Week 4 victory over a bad Arizona State team (42-28). This seems to be an annual trend with teams coached by Lincoln Riley. QB Caleb Williams is very consistent each game (1200 passing yards, 15 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs). Williams does his most damage on broken plays and simply over throwing defensive coverages. That approach won’t work at the NFL level. RB MarShawn Lloyd (349 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs) has emerged from a crowded backfield corps, and he runs with authority.
Glass ceiling shattered for the Buffaloes in Week 4 against Oregon on the road (42-6 loss). Head coach Deion Sanders couldn’t will his team to get first downs, make stops on defense, or play with an intensity to survive in a deep PAC-12. That scenario will likely play out again this week. Colorado fanbase needs to pay close attention on how PrimeTime and his coaching staff responds to game adversity. Will they scrap the playbook and revert to conservative play calling when losing badly? Or will they continue to change the program’s culture by running their new system and trying to improve against much better opponents? This is the main reason why Prime got the head coaching gig.
Prediction: USC always plays well at altitude and they win by 21 points.
Week 5 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Florida vs. Kentucky
Tasty SEC matchup between two teams currently playing below the radar. Gators are on a three game winning streak and seem to be blossoming more with each game. QB Graham Mertz, RB Trevor Etienne, and WR Ricky Pearsall are playing as the Three Amigos. That’s the Billy Napier affect playing out in Gainesville, Florida. Wildcats are 4-0 due to an easy schedule, and this week they enter a rough four game gauntlet against Florida, Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee. Transfer portal QB Devin Leary (1060 passing yards, 9 passing TDs) has played well, but he hasn’t seen the top tier teams in the SEC yet. SEC is significantly better than the ACC he’s used to playing in. Despite being a 1.0 point road underdog, Florida chomps their way to a win.
4. LSU vs. Ole Miss
Another solid SEC matchup of two teams trying to keep pace with Alabama. Tigers snuck past Arkansas in Week (34-31). Over-rated defensive unit might get carved up in conference play, unless head coach Brian Kelly has a card up his sleeve. QB Jayden Daniels and his two WRs (Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr.) are playing at a high level. Rebels just endured their annual classroom lesson against Alabama in Week 4, with a 24-10 loss. Will rely heavily on QB Jaxson Dart to be a one man show on offense, but that might be just enough to flip the script as a 2.5 point home underdog. Lane Kiffin is due to beat a big name coach this season.
3. Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Cyclones are a mess at 2-2 and have no identity heading into this Big 12 game in Norman, Oklahoma. Head coach Matt Campbell went from being a hot commodity after the 2020 season, to a forgotten name due to lackluster seasons in 2021 and 2022. Sooners are 4-0, but haven’t played a quality team yet. Brett Venables is trying to erase bad memories from the 2022 season. Oklahoma typically focuses on their annual Red River Shootout with Texas on 10/7/23, about a week early. This is a trap game for the Sooners despite being a 19.5 point home favorite. Iowa State pulled a stunner on the road in 2017 and it could happen again.
2. Notre Dame vs. Duke
Intriguing matchup between the Fighting Irish and Blue Devils. Notre Dame will need to have a short term memory, after losing to Ohio State on the final play of the game in Week 4 (17-14). Not to mention there were only ten defensive players on the field for the last play. Rudy Ruettiger could have made a difference on that running play. Duke is 4-0 and playing sound football. Blue Devils student section isn’t counting down the days to basketball season yet. Balanced offense paced by QB Riley Leonard and RB Jordan Waters, won’t be intimidated by the gold flake helmets. Duke will be in this game for sixty minutes despite being a 5.5 point home underdog. Cameron Crazies might rush the field after the final whistle.
1. Clemson vs. Syracuse
Time for this blogger to hop on the bandwagon of Clemson being done in 2023 and Dabo Swinney being on the hot seat. Tigers played with intensity against Florida State in Week 4, but their defense couldn’t get stops and QB Cade Klubnik isn’t a big game performer. Orange are 4-0 and will play in front of a huge home crowd at the JMA Wireless Dome. Head coach Dino Babers will have his players ready and motivated to continue knocking Clemson down the ACC pecking order. Bettors are overconfident with Clemson sitting at a 7.0 point road favorite. That isn’t going to happen.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #6
- Crank up the hype machine for Oklahoma vs. Texas in the Red River Shootout
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #6?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #5 and try again in Week #6.
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