This article covers the most exciting week 6 College Football games to watch and top 5 upsets. Saturday is right around the corner and that means college football is kicking off. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2022 season, had a modest success rate of 73.9% for top 5 exciting games and 40.0% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 57.1% (104/182 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2023 and continue to improve, for a third year player trying to avoid jumping in the transfer portal before lunch.
2023 Week 5 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 5/5 thanks to Georgia, Michigan, Texas, USC and Washington
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 1/5 thanks to Ole Miss
Overall picks – 6/10 and I’m above the mean
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 21/25
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 10/25
Overall picks – 31/50 which means I’m steady but need to find another gear
Week 6 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Oklahoma vs. Texas
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 10/7/23 from Dallas, Texas. Will this Red River Rivalry game live up to the epic game played in 2021 (Oklahoma won an instant classic 55-48)? Or will it be a one sided game like the 2022 matchup (Texas dominated 49-0)? Most bettors think it’ll be somewhere between those outliers with Texas being a low 5.0 point “home” favorite. Sooners haven’t played a good team yet, and QB Dillon Brooks looks serviceable at the line of scrimmage (1593 passing yards, 15 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs). Longhorns continue to gain confidence with QB Quinn Ewers (1358 passing yards, 10 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs), being under center. Texas is rolling and Oklahoma hasn’t played anybody yet. Could be an entertaining game or could be a blowout. Worth tuning in for the first half and then make a judgement call.
Prediction: Texas gets their footing in the third quarter and wins by 10+ points
4. Maryland vs. Ohio State
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 10/7/23 from Columbus, Ohio. Terrapins are a quiet 5-0 team heading into this game. Pushed Ohio State in Week 10 of the 2022 season, before losing late 43-30 on their home field. Senior QB Taulia Tagovailoa is playing well (1464 passing yards, 13 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs). Can Taulia rally his three deep RB corps and five deep WR/TE corps to pull off a major upset on the road? Buckeyes might have a hangover from their emotional and gut check win over Notre Dame in Week 4 (17-14). Doubting head coach Ryan Day will allow that, since he’s all in this season with his attitude and work ethic. QB Kyle McCord is serviceable at QB and expect WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (336 receiving yards, 3 TDs) to have a monster statistical game.
Prediction: Ohio State takes care of business at home and covers the spread winning by 20+ points.
3. Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 10/7/23 from College Station, Texas. Nick Saban vs. Jimbo Fisher. The GOAT vs. the whiner. A dynasty vs. a wannabe program. A program that has been at the top since 2009 vs. a program that has no clue how to act in the SEC. A team searching for a QB to lead them to an identity vs. a team with no identity. Does this blogger need to continue to analyze this matchup? Mark it down, this is a no contest and 2021 was simply an outlier. Time to move on.
Prediction: Alabama has a serious chip on their shoulder and wins by 7+ points.
2. Wake Forest vs. Clemson
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on10/7/23 from Clemson, North Carolina. Trying to get excited about QB Mitch Griffis (999 passing yards, 9 passing TDs), despite being undersized at 5′-11″ and 193 lbs. Running game goes three players deep and receiving game four players deep. Can the Demon Deacons defense (29.0 points allowed) stop the Tigers offense? Clemson answered the ACC bell against Syracuse in Week 5 with a badly needed victory (31-14). Can they follow that up with a full team effort against Wake Forest? Still not a Cade Klubnik fan, but he’s got a four deep WR/TE corps to use on every passing down. Defensive unit is now starting to get stops against secondary tier teams.
Prediction: Have been a big fan of Wake Forest in 2021 and 2022, but they don’t have the horses in this game and Clemson wins by 14+ points.
1. Kentucky vs. Georgia
Primetime evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) on 10/7/23 from Athens, Georgia. Wildcats are 5-0 after an impressive win over Florida in Week 5 (33-14). RB Ray Davis (594 ruhsing yards, 8 rushing TDs) and WR Tayvion Robinson (308 receiving yards, 3 TDs), will cause matchup problems during the first half. Defensive unit is currently sound due to allowing 297.2 yards and 15.2 points per game. Bulldogs slid by Auburn in Week 5 (27-20) and suddenly look one-dimensional on offense. Need to find some depth behind RB Daijun Edwards (260 rushing yards, 5 TDs). Defense is stout (287.2 yards and 13.0 points allowed per game), but they aren’t kryptonite like they were in 2021 and 2022.
Prediction: Tight game for three quarters and Georgia grinds out a 10 point victory.
Week 6 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. LSU vs. Missouri
LSU has more than a little hitch in their get along this season. Ole Miss beat them in a track meet in Week 5 (55-49) and head coach Brian Kelly needs to focus on his defense. Offense continues to stretch the field vertically, but they can’t stop my grandma trying to steal a cheese danish from the grocery store. Missouri is 5-0 for the first time in years and still riding high after upsetting Kansas State in Week 3 (30-27). QB Brady Cook throwing to WR Luther Burden III (644 receiving yards, 5 TDs) is must watch viewing. Despite being a 6.0 point home underdog, Missouri will be in this game due to defense and special teams.
4. Washington State vs. UCLA
Intriguing PAC-12 matchup at the Rose Bowl. Cougars have risen to #13 in the Top 25 rankings due to being 4-0 and playing sound football. QB Cameron Ward continues to light up the stat sheet. Need to focus on moving the chains by running the ball, due to using the Air Raid offense on 90% of their offensive plays. Bruins have become the forgotten team in a deep PAC-12. Good balance at RB and WR, but they don’t have a difference maker at QB. Defense is top notch due to only allowing 263.8 yards and 11.0 point per game. Washington State blows right past the 3.0 point road underdog betting line.
3. Syracuse vs. North Carolina
Great ACC matchup that should translate well on the basketball hardcourt, whoops this blogger meant to type football field. Orange were schooled by Clemson in Week 5 (31-14 loss). Dino Baber typically has his squad ready to bounce back and play hard after a bad game. Tarheels continue to showcase QB Drake Maye (1187 passing yards, 5 passing TDs), but he looks inconsistent this season. Could be due to all the transfer portal rumors Maye is dealing with each week. Gut feeling has Syracuse hanging around late in this game, even though they are 9.5 point road underdogs. College football royalty, head coach Mack Brown, usually takes one home game off per season. That could happen this weekend.
2. Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Fighting Irish showed some onions, with a come from behind road victory over Duke (21-14) in Week 5. That happens when head coach Marcus Freeman doesn’t abandon the running game and keeps feeding the ball to RB Audric Estime (672 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs). Estime plays like a young Jerome Bettis and loves bouncing off contact before accelerating through his gears. Keep giving him the ball. Cardinals are 5-0 but don’t have a signature win yet in 2023. QB Jack Plummer, RB Jawhar Jordan, and WR Jamari Thrash can all play ball at a high level. Will the Cardinals keep their composure in the fourth quarter and not let the Notre Dame mystique creep into the stadium? 6.5 point betting line seems high for a Louisville squad that’ll play hard until the final snap.
1. Fresno State vs. Wyoming
This blogger is getting desperate due to looking at the Mountain West Conference to complete the upset picks for Week 6. Bulldogs are 5-0 and ranked #24. Have a balanced offense averaging 425.0 yards and 36.4 points per game. Defense is stingy due to only allowing 17.0 points per game. Cowboys are 4-1 and playing a night home game. Expect a ton of running plays, situational pass patterns on third down, and trying to win the turnover battle. If Wyoming sticks to that script, they could overcome a 6.0 point underdog betting line.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #7
- Crank up the hype machine for Oregon vs. Washington
- Also see if USC vs Notre Dame is a classic matchup or not in 2023
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #7?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #6 and try again in Week #7.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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