This article summarizes what did and didn’t work when predicting the MLB playoffs for the 2023 season. Entered into this exercise with low expectations, due to predicting all the MLB playoff series in 2022 and having a 63.6% accuracy rate. Watched my favorite team (New York Yankees) struggle through the entire regular season. Biggest questions are how to improve the accuracy of predictions for the 2024 playoffs and ensure the postings are also entertaining to read.
2023 Major League Baseball Playoffs Recap
World Series
1/1 correct thanks to the Texas Rangers
2023 All Picks Recap
Wildcard Round total – 2/4 correct
Divisional Round total – 2/4 correct
League Championships Round total – 1/2 correct
World Series total – 1/1 correct
MLB Playoffs total – 6/11 correct which is one standard deviation above the median
Wildcard Round series
Statistical Analysis: 2/4 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean
Highlights: Predicted the Texas Rangers would advance past Tampa Bay in three games and they did in two games. Predicted the Philadelphia Phillies would advance past Miami in three games and they did in two games.
Lowlights: Was overconfident that Toronto and Milwaukee would move onto the Divisional Round in two games and they both got swept by Minnesota and Arizona. Was already way off on how well the Diamondbacks would play in the postseason.
Comments: Rangers started an incredible streak of winning road games with two victories at Tampa Bay. Blue Jays’ bats went cold against the solid Minnesota pitching staff. Brewers had no business starting Josh Donaldson at 3B and got out hit and out pitched in all situations against Arizona. Phillies beat Miami in quick fashion and had their sites set on the World Series.
Divisional Round series
Statistical Analysis: 2/4 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Texas Rangers would beat the Baltimore Orioles in five games, when it actually took three games. Thought the Houston Astros would sweep the Minnesota Twins in three games, and it actually took four games.
Lowlights: Missed both National League series by a mile, with Philadelphia beating Atlanta in four games (predicted the Braves to win in four games). Arizona advanced due to sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers in three games (predicted the Dodgers would win in three games).
Comments: Wildcard teams continued to roll in this bracket, and only one of the teams who had worked hard all season for a bye ended up advancing (Houston). Baseball is a game of statistical trends that either go up or go straight down. Orioles, Braves and Dodgers picked a horrible time to play their worst baseball of the 2023 MLB season.
League Championship Round series
Statistical Analysis: 1/2 correct, 50.0% accuracy rate, right at the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Texas Rangers would win the ALCS in seven games.
Lowlights: Predicted the Philadelphia Phillies would win the NLCS in five games and they were eliminated by Arizona in seven games.
Comments: Rangers showed some serious onions by winning four road games against Houston and RF Adolis Garcia took his entire game to a new level in this series. Strong starting pitching by Texas enabled their bullpen to work late innings only. Arizona looked completely overmatched for the first two games of the NLCS and then they took situational hitting seriously in Game 3. Series momentum shifted from one dugout to the other. Closer Paul Sewald locked down the late innings and the Diamondbacks suddenly belonged in the annual Fall Classic.
World Series
Statistical Analysis: 1/1 correct, 100.0% accuracy rate, three standard deviations above the mean
Highlights: Correctly predicted the Texas Rangers to win the World Series in six games, and they exceeded expectations by winning in five games.
Lowlights: Get to wonder why the New York Yankees have kept Aaron Boone as manager after a forgettable 2023 season. Will the Chicago Cubs get back to being a winning franchise with Craig Counsell as manager? Too many questions without solid answers to get this blogger through the MLB off-season.
Comments: Texas won an instant extra innings classic in Game 1 thanks to World Series MVP Corey Seager. Arizona rode timely hitting to a surprising Game 2 victory. Rangers loved playing on the road this postseason and rattled off three straight wins at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona to claim their first world championship trophy. Ended up winning eleven straight road playoff games in 2023. Texas has a legitimate chance to dominate the American League over the next three to five seasons. Manager Bruce Bochy won his fourth World Series title.
Same bat time, same bat channel for the MLB playoffs for the 2024 season. There might be some changes, might roll with what I’ve got. Tune in and see what happens in the fall of 2024.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
Want to find a highly rated beer near you? Check out this article that tells you how to locate great beer near you.
