2023 Week 10 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 thanks to Texas, Georgia, Washington and Alabama
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 thanks to Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona
Overall picks – 7/10 and I’m trending up
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 43/50
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 22/50
Overall picks – 65/100 which means I need to avoid potholes and road closures
Week 11 College Football Top 5 Games to Watch
5. Alabama vs. Kentucky
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 11/11/23 from Lexington, Kentucky. Crimson Tide have found another gear during their current seven game winning streak. Played their best second half of football in Week 10, when they motored past LSU 42-28. QB Jalen Milroe (1836 passing yards, 13 passing TDs, 297 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs), is a completely different player since September 2023. RB Jase McClellan is due to run for 100+ yards again and likes scoring 1 TD per game. Defense continues to tighten up by allowing 325.4 yards and 17.8 points per game. Wildcats ended their three game losing streak in Week 10, with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State. Quietest RB in the country is Ray Davis (903 rushing yards, 9 TDs). WR tandem of Tayvion Robinson and Dane Key will be covered the entire game and could be in for a long day.
Prediction: Close game for 45 minutes and then Alabama really clamps down on defense and wins by 9 points.
4. Miami vs. Florida State
Afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 11/11/23 from Tallahassee, Florida. Historical series that used to mean so much and has now drifted into “who cares” territory. Hurricanes are sitting at 6-3 and have bad losses to North Carolina and NC State. No need to mention again how they lost to Georgia Tech in Week 6 (23-20). QB Tyler Van Dyke has the physical tools to be a solid field leader (6′-4″, 230 lbs), but he throws too many interceptions (11 INTs). Four deep RB and five deep WR corps have good statistics, but this team can’t make enough stops on defense. Seminoles are cruising at 9-0 and have a favorable regular season schedule (Miami, North Alabama, Florida). QB Jordan Travis and RB Trey Benson continue to move the chains with their feet. Transfer portal WR Keon Coleman (538 receiving yards, 9 TDs), has been on a tear the last three game and wants the damn ball on every passing play. Florida State needs to stay focused and not think about the CFP.
Prediction: Physical game will be chippy early and then Florida State pulls away for a 14+ win.
3. Utah vs. Washington
Afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 11/11/23 from Seattle, Washington. Utes are still a dangerous team at 7-2, despite playing with subpar backup QB Bryson Barnes (930 passing yards, 8 passing TDs). Leaning heavily on RB Ja’Quinden Jackson (598 rushing yards, 2 TDs) to carry the offense. RB corps have accounted for 14 TDs and the WR/TE corps have 11 TDs. Good defensive units will start to pack 8-to-9 players in the box and tempt Utah to throw the ball. Huskies are 9-0 and sitting in the #5 slot in this week’s CFP rankings. Sledding isn’t easy to get to the PAC-12 Championship Game with matchups against Utah, Oregon State and Washington State. QB Michael Penix Jr. (3201 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD) is still “the man” in the PNW. WRs Rome Odunze (7 receiving TDs) and Ja’Lynn Polk (8 receiving TDs) seem to catch everything thrown their way. Washington has played five straight closer than expected games and needs to focus on executing plays to stay in the CFP hunt.
Prediction: Close game late in the fourth quarter and Washington holds on for a 7 point win.
2. Ole Miss vs. Georgia
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) on 11/11/23 from Athens, Georgia. Rebels are sitting comfortably at 8-1 and riding a cozy five game winning streak. QB Jaxson Dart has the luxury of handing the ball off to RB Quinshon Judkins (793 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs), and throwing the ball to WR Tre Harris (749 receiving yards, 7 receiving TDs). Offensive unit has thrown 5 INTs, given up 20 sacks, and are playing with fire due to having eight fumbles but only losing one to the opposition. Bulldogs will exploit the Ole Miss offensive line and put pressure on Dart during every passing play. Defensive unit is only allowing 282.2 yards and 15.4 points per game. Not as dominant as the 2021 squad, not as consistent as the 2022 squad, but still effective in 2023. QB Carson Beck (2716 passing yards, 16 passing TDs) continues to drive the offense like he owns it. Home field advantage will be a huge factor in this game.
Prediction: Best game of the weekend has several momentum swings and Georgia hangs on to win by 6 points.
1. Florida vs. LSU
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 11/11/23 from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Was supposed to be a marque SEC matchup, but the Gators (5-4) and Tigers (6-3) have both underachieved this season. Florida is riding a two game losing streak and have lost three of their last five games. Transfer portal QB Graham Mertz (2409 passing yards, 17 passing TDs) has been a nice gem, but his defensive unit can’t stop a high school JV team. 3 INTs and 16 total sacks will cause an average team to get lapped in the SEC and that has happened to Florida. Wonder if they’ll revert to shoe throwing in order to be on ESPN. LSU can move the ball on offense (544.6 yards) and score almost at will (45.2 points per game). They can’t stop an offense with one QB and no support players, due to allowing 407.4 yards and 28.2 points per game. QB Jayden Daniels is playing at a higher level in 2023, but head coach Brian Kelly needs to recruit defensive players who want to tackle and create chaos on every down.
Prediction: Expect a ton of offensive highlights as LSU wins by 10+ points.
Week 11 College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Michigan vs. Penn State
This Big Ten rivalry had the feel of a trap game early in the week and then boom. Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for the last three regular season games due to the sign stealing investigation. Now this game is up for grabs and raw emotions will spill out on the playing field. Michigan coaching staff and players will be looking over their shoulders to see if they are still united, despite the ongoing investigation. Nittany Lions will be calm and cool customers playing at home as a 4.5 point underdog. Time for Penn State head coach James Franklin to show why he’s a big notch above Harbaugh and Lincoln Riley. Welcome to CFP chaos in November.
4. Tennessee vs. Missouri
Volunteers are grinding along at 7-2 and have two quality losses against Alabama (34-20) and Florida (29-16). Transfer portal QB Joe Milton III has been trending up statistically the last three games. WR Squirrel White continues to gather nuts for the winter, and has caught 16 passes, 251 receiving yards, and 2 TDs over the same three game span. RB Jaylen Wright will have a tough decision to make in early 2024 if he heads to the NFL Draft. Tigers are also 7-2 and took a physical piece out of Georgia in Week 10, despite losing 30-21. Offensive unit continues to carve up SEC defenses by averaging 434.1 yards and scoring 32.4 points per game. Missouri is a good team and they’ll play fearless as a 2.5 point home underdog.
3. Rutgers vs. Iowa
The infamous game that none of the sportsbooks want to take a bath on, with the over/under currently sitting at 28.5 points. Scarlet Knights are a surprising 6-3 but play some ugly football. QB Gavin Wimsatt (7 rushing TDs) and RB Kyle Monangai (903 rushing yards, 7 TDs), will run the ball with authority. Five deep WR/TE corps will have to make some big plays to try to bust the over/under line. Hawkeyes are 7-2 and continue to win games by averaging 18.4 points per game. QB Deacon Hill will throw a pass or two and rely on his RBs to move the chains. If you like three yards of dirt and field position football, this is the game to watch. Rutgers shocks the bettors as a 1.5 point road underdog and scores at least three TDs.
2. Duke vs. North Carolina
Blue Devils seem to be running on fumes in November, due to losing three of their last five games and have been decimated by key injuries. Ready to see the J&J show, with RB Jordan Waters (564 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs) and WR Jordan Moore (483 receiving yards, 4 TDs). Moore needs to assert himself in the huddle to be a difference maker in this game. Tarheels are 7-2 and have one quality win over Miami (41-31). QB Drake Maye has thrown for 2803 passing yards, but still seems to be going through the motions. He’d thrive in the USC offense in 2024. RB Omarion Hampton (1067 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs) will be a household name by December. Going to throw out the betting line since this is a rivalry game, and pick Duke to shock the world as a 13.0 point road underdog.
1. Maryland vs. Nebraska
Terrapins and Cornhuskers are two of the least favorite teams for this blogger. Trying to find the dreaded fifth upset pick of the week to complete this posting. Both teams are 5-4 and have had forgettable seasons. Maryland is mired in a four game losing streak and has no relief with Michigan and Rutgers on their season ending schedule. Nebraska has no quality wins and finishes with Wisconsin and Iowa. How did that move from the Big 12 to the Big Ten pan out? Not so good huh! Maryland is scoring 30.7 points and allowing 23.8 points per game. Nebraska is scoring 19.9 points and allowing 18.8 points per game. Throwing out the statistics and picking the team that plays in a stadium which looks like a meat packing plant. Cornhuskers to flip the 2.5 point home underdog line and send their faithful fans home happy.
Storylines to follow heading into Week #12
- Crank up the hype machine for Georgia vs. Tennessee
- PAC 12 hits the late season stride with Washington vs. Oregon State
- Who is the Heisman Trophy front runner after Week #11?
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Top 5 Week #11 and try again in Week #12.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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