This article covers predicted College Football Exciting Bowl Games Part I (12/16-12/20/22). Bowl season is officially starting on 12/16/22 and that means eleven games will be played by 12/20/22. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Week 14 Picks Recap
Conference Championship Games – 6/10 thanks to UTSA, Troy, Georgia, Tulane, Michigan and Clemson
Overall picks – 6/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 48/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 26/65
Conference Championship Games – 6/10
Overall picks – 80/140 which is one standard deviation above the mean
College Football Bowl Games Part I
11. Bahamas Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. UAB
Late morning kickoff (11:30 AM EDT) on 12/16/22 from the Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas. Hockey school vs. basketball school. Redhawks enter this game at 6-6 and finished in the middle of the pack of the Mid-American Conference (MAC). Had one quality win over Northwestern and won three out of their last four games. Duel threat QB Aveon Smith (1137 passing yards, 503 rushing yards, 15 total TDs) and WR Mac Hippenhammer (726 receiving yards, 8 TDs), will make some highlight reel plays.
Blazers head into this matchup at 6-6 and don’t have any quality wins, but have four losses to bowl teams (Liberty, Rice, Western Kentucky, UTSA). All four quality losses were by a combined twenty points, so UAB knows how to play up to the level of their opponent. Stud RB DeWayne McBride (1713 rushing yards, 19 TDs) is not expected to play in the game. UAB will rely on QB Dylan Hopkins, RB Jermaine Brown Jr. and WR Trea Shropshire to carry the offense.
Prediction: UAB is a big 10.5 point favorite and they cover easily winning by 14 points with a deep offensive squad
10. Cure Bowl: UTSA vs. Troy
Late afternoon kickoff (3:00 PM EDT) on 12/16/22 from Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Now the 2022 bowl season is officially rolling with both teams entering this matchup at 11-2. UTSA won the Conference USA championship and Troy won the Sunbelt Conference championship. Roadrunners will rely on QB Frank Harris (3865 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 588 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs) and WR Zakhari Franklin (1100 receiving yards, 14 TDs). Both star players are seniors, which is a rarity these days in college football.
Trojans are riding a ten game winning streak and play sound football in all three phases of the game. QB Gunnar Watson is a solid game manager who relies heavily on RB Kimani Vidal (1059 rushing yards, 9 TDs), and WR Tez Johnson (823 receiving yards, 4 TDs). Head coach John Sumrall is currently flying below the radar for job openings, but his name will be mentioned often during the upcoming off season.
Prediction: This game is technically a toss up, but UTSA is currently listed as a 1.0 point favorite. Roadrunners rely on their senior leadership and win an entertaining game by 4 points.
9. Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Louisville
Late morning kickoff (11:00 AM EDT) from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. All of the talking heads are analyzing how both of these teams are going to respond to a reality show drama that has unfolded over the past two weeks. Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell moved on to the Wisconsin Badgers and speculation ran rampant on who his replacement would be. Cincinnati choose the current head coach at Louisville, Scott Satterfield, to be their new head coach starting in 2023. Both athletic departments were not paying attention to the bowl game schedule when that decision was made. Not sure how awkward this game is going to feel between the sidelines, but ESPN will talk about every coaching angle possible during the television broadcast.
Prediction: Despite being a 2.0 point underdog, Cincinnati will focus for sixty minutes and win this game by 6 points
8. Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. Oregon State
Afternoon kickoff (2:30 PM EDT) on 12/17/22 from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Two teams that are on different paths back to college football relevance. Florida is using The Long and Winding Road approach with new head coach Billy Napier. Finished 6-6, but have a new attitude in the locker room and in overall team effort. Will be shorthanded in this game due to several starters already entering the transfer portal for 2023. Oregon State is content to use the Let It Be method after having a memorable 9-3 season, highlighted by a rivalry win over Oregon (38-34) in Week 14. Head coach Jonathan Smith was awarded a six year contract extension after posting back-to-back winning seasons. Beavers are ready for the unpredictable future of the PAC-12 conference.
Prediction: Oregon State is a legitimate 9.5 point favorite and will grind out a 7 point victory
7. LA Bowl: Washington State vs. Fresno State
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 12/17/22 from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Cougars ended the season at 7-5 and employed a well known strategy to survive in the PAC-12 Conference, beat the teams you are supposed to beat, and lose to the better teams. This blogger has written high praise for sophomore QB Cameron Ward (3094 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs), but its time for him to take the next step and elevate his game.
Bulldogs are riding an eight game winning streak and still trying to forget a bad loss to UConn in Week 4 (19-11). Senior QB Jake Haener (2616 passing yards, 18 TDs) has a decision to make on whether to play this game or opt out for the NFL draft. If Haener plays, Fresno State will continue their mastery over the PAC-12. If he opts out, this will be a close but bumpy game.
Prediction: Fresno State is a steady 4.0 point favorite and they win by 7+ points
6. Lending Tree Bowl: Rice vs. Southern Mississippi
Early evening kickoff (5:45 PM EDT) on 12/17/22 from Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. First ho-hum matchup of the 2022 bowl season with the Owls (5-7) taking on the Golden Eagles (6-6). Those records are not a misprint and this blogger can’t find any gold nuggets tied to the Rice squad. WR Bradly Rozner (834 receiving yards, 9 TDs) is a flyer worth tracking at the 2023 NFL Combine. Southern Mississippi beat Tulane in Week 4 (27-24), but ended the season losing three of their last four games. RB Frank Gore Jr. (1053 rushing yards, 7 TDs) will get a ton of media attention due to his dad, but WR Jason Brownlee (819 receiving yards 7 TDs) has a legitimate chance of playing on Sundays in 2023.
Prediction: Snoozer game that won’t be worth tuning into unless the scoreboard is close in the fourth quarter. Southern Mississippi wins by 10 points.
5. New Mexico Bowl: SMU vs. BYU
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 12/17/22 from University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Rematch of the 1980 Holiday Bowl, that BYU won 46-45 due to scoring twenty points in the last four minutes. That miracle finish started the big game legend of QB Jim McMahon. SMU finished the season 7-5 and played TCU to the final buzzer in Week 4, losing 42-34. QB Tanner Mordecai (3306 passing yards, 31 TDs) and WR Rashee Rice (1355 receiving yards, 10 TDs) will try to put on a fireworks show in the red zone. Cougars also finished 7-5, but are riding a three game winning streak. Played a tough schedule with close losses to Notre Dame and East Carolina. Time for QB Jaren Hall (3171 passing yards, 31 TDs) to get into an old-fashioned passing duel with Mordecai.
Prediction: Hopefully this game lives up to the top tier QB billing and is high scoring for 60 minutes. BYU finds a way to win by 3 points.
4. Frisco Bowl: North Texas vs. Boise State
Late evening kickoff (9:15 PM EDT) on 12/17/22 from Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. Green Wave had an up and down season finishing at 7-6. Played in the Conference USA Championship game and lost to UTSA (48-27). Head coach Seth Littrell was fired after that loss, and interim coach Phil Bennett will shift from defensive coordinator to Grand Poobah for this bowl game. Broncos were the class of the Mountain West Conference (MWC) regular season at 9-3. Lost at home to Fresno State (28-16) in the conference championship game in Week 15. QB Taylen Green will be handing the ball a lot to workhorse RB George Holani due to North Texas’ porous run defense.
Prediction: Boise State is a strong 10.5 point favorite and they win by 9+ points
3. Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall vs. UConn
Afternoon kickoff (2:30 PM EDT) on 12/19/22 from Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina. Football school vs. basketball school. Thundering Herd had a memorable season at 8-4 and finished in the second tier of the Sun Belt Conference. Upset Notre Dame on the road in Week 2 (26-21), and then rode the three headed monster of QB Cam Fancher, RB Khalan Laborn (1423 rushing yards, 16 TDs) and WR Corey Gammage. Head coach Charles Huff’s motivational speeches and recruiting will open career doors for him in the near future. UConn finished 6-6 and won five of their last seven games. Tough sledding these days as an FBS Independent, but the Huskies always show up to play under new head coach Jim Mora. This game won’t be close due to UConn’s anemic offense (301.8 yards and 19.8 points per game).
Prediction: Marshall is a stout 10.0 point favorite and they win easily by 17+ points
2. Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 12/20/22 from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Who wouldn’t enjoy a warm basket of french fries while watching a football game on blue astro turf during a winter day in Idaho? Weather experts are predicting a 50% chance of snow showers and a high temperature of 37 degrees at kickoff. Need some extra mustard and ketchup with those fries.
Eagles had a quiet 8-4 season, highlighted by a road victory over Arizona State (30-21) in Week 3. That game caused Herm Edwards to be fired as head coach of the Sun Devils. Eastern Michigan is currently riding a three game winning streak due to the hard work of RB Samson Evans (1084 rushing yards, 13 TDs). Offense averages scoring 28.8 points and the defense allows 28.6 points per game. That’s basically Even Steven for most football fans. Spartans had a memorable season at 7-4 and finished in the middle tier of the MWC. QB Chevan Cordeiro (2884 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 215 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs) and WR Elijah Cooks (983 receiving yards, 10 TDs) are the real deal. Cooks could be playing on Sundays in 2023 if he continues to improve his route running.
Prediction: Despite being a 3.5 point road underdog, Eastern Michigan will win by 7 points to cap a remarkable season
1. Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 12/20/22 from FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida. Flames were one of the biggest surprises during the 2022 college football season, when they peaked with an 8-1 record in Week 11. Three straight losses to UConn, Virginia Tech and New Mexico State closed out the season at 8-4. Head coach Hugh Freeze moved onto Auburn and Liberty moved fast to hire Jamey Chadwell from Coastal Carolina. The entire roster will be auditioning for starting spots in 2023 during this bowl game. Rockets won the MAC Championship game against Ohio in Week 15 (17-7), to finish at 8-5. Dual threat QB Dequan Finn (2127 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 608 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs), will be on full display for sixty minutes. WR Jerjuan Newton is undersized (5′-11″, 190 lbs), but all he does is score touchdowns (788 receiving yards, 9 TDs).
Prediction: Liberty will play loose and confident for the new coaching staff watching from the press box and win by 8 points
Storylines to follow heading into Bowl Games Part II
- Crank up the hype for the middle part of the 2022 bowl season and the CFP kicking off on 12/31/22
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Bowl Games Part I on 12/21/22 and try again in Bowl Games Part II.
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