2023 Week 14 Picks Recap
Conference Championship Games – 5/10 thanks to Liberty, Texas, Troy, Michigan, and Florida State
Overall picks – 5/10 which is right at the mean
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 57/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 28/65
Conference Championship Games – 5/10
Overall picks – 90/140 which is one standard deviation above the mean
College Football Bowl Games Part I
10. Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Ohio
Late morning kickoff (11:00 AM EDT) on 12/16/23 from Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina. Eagles are limping into this matchup on a four game losing streak. Have two signature wins over UAB (49-35) and Coastal Carolina (38-28). QB Davis Brin (3431 passing yards, 22 passing TDs) can ball and he has a seven deep WR/TE corps to utilize. Defense is sneaky with 23 total sacks and 13 interceptions. Bobcats have had a memorable season at 9-3 and are riding a three game winning streak. Appear to play loose and confident in tight games. Expect a heavy run set highlighting RBs Sieh Bangura (811 rushing yards, 7 TDs) and O’Shaan Allison (452 rushing yards, 3 TDs)
Prediction: Ohio is a 3.5 point underdog and dominates the line of scrimmage to win by 9 points.
9. New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana
Afternoon kickoff (2:15 PM EDT) on 12/16/23 from Caesars Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana. Gamecocks are 8-4 and on a win-loss pattern over the last four games, so they are due for a victory. Dual threat QB Zion Webb (1281 passing yards, 5 passing TDs, 638 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs), will be a human highlight reel in this game. Undersized senior RB Malik Jackson (5′-10″, 185 lbs) will try to lighten the work load for Webb. Ragin’ Cajuns underachieved this season at 6-6. Have lost three out of their last four games. Four of those losses were by 7 points or less. Dual threat QB, four deep RB corps, and a seven deep WR/TE corps will enjoy some gumbo while celebrating in the French Quarter.
Prediction: Upset bug continues in the early bowl games with Louisiana winning by 6 points.
8. Mexico Cure Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from FBC Mortgage Field in Orlando, Florida. Hockey school vs. football school. Redhawks won the MAC Conference Championship this season and are sitting at 11-2. Efficient signal caller Brett Gabbert (1634 passing yards, 14 passing TDs), will rely on RB Rashad Amos (12 TDs) and WR Gage Larvadain (6 TDs) to move the chains. Solid defensive line and ball hawking secondary will keep Miami (OH) in this game. Mountaineers continue to be relevant on the big stage year in and year out. Had a solid season at 9-3 with a monumental victory over James Madison (26-23) in Week 12. QB Joey Aguilar (3546 passing yards, 33 passing TDs, 235 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs), might be the most underrated player in the country. RB Nate Noel (5 TDs) and WR Kaedin Robinson (10 TDs) are excellent role players.
Prediction: Best game of the opening bowls weekend and Appalachian State wins by 3 points.
7. New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
Evening kickoff (5:45 PM EDT) on 12/16/23 from University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Aggies flew below the radar in 2023 by going 10-4 and finishing second in Conference USA. Made big strides from 2022 when they went 7-6. Were on an eight game winning streak until losing to Liberty in Week 14 (49-35). QB Diego Pavia (2915 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 856 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs), will be all over the field acting like Superman. Due to a having a low program budget, Pavis is also the water boy, band director and halftime entertainment coordinator at New Mexico State.
Bulldogs went 8-4 and have a quality road win over Purdue (39-35). Sinking like a stone on a current three game losing streak. QB Mikey Keene, RB Malik Sherrod, and WR Erik Brooks lead an offense that averages 378.4 yards and 29.9 points per game. Fresno State historically shows up and plays well in all bowl games.
Prediction: Game will have some big momentum swings and Fresno State wins by 8 points.
6. LA Bowl: UCLA vs. Boise State
Evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 12/16/23 from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Best way to describe the Bruins in 2023, is they are that long lost love interest you really want to see at your high school reunion. Unfortunately when you get to the reunion, no amount of alcohol can change your perspective on being let down yet again. Went 7-5 with bad losses to Arizona State (17-7) and California (33-7). Won the Battle of Los Angeles against USC (38-20), but couldn’t maintain any momentum. Due to QB Dante Moore entering the transfer portal, head coach Chip Kelly will pull a student out of the stands to run the offense.
Broncos were the ultimate risk vs. reward team this season at 8-5. Had bad losses to Memphis (35-32) and Colorado State (31-30). Got hot during the last month of the season, and rode a four game winning streak through the Mountain West Conference championship game. Budding star RB Ashton Jeanty (1262 rushing yards, 14 TDs) will carry the workload for 60 minutes.
Prediction: Home town advantage and a deeper roster carries UCLA to a 10 point win.
5. Independence Bowl: California vs. Texas Tech
Late evening kickoff (9:15 PM EDT) on 12/16/23 from Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana. How on earth did the Bears become bowl eligible? Went 6-6 in a deep PAC-12 and are riding a three game winning streak. They’ll be a perfect fit in the ACC in 2024 as long as they can deal with jet lag. Thankfully QB Fernando Mendoza (1447 passing yards, 14 passing TDs) decided not to play baseball with that last name. Keep an eye on RB Jaydn Ott (1260 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs) in this game and if he enters the transfer portal.
Red Raiders went 6-6 in the Big 12 and seem to take one step forward and two steps back each week. QB Behren Morton and RB Tahj Brooks can play hard against any team in the country, but the WR corps needs a leader badly. Texas Tech needs to find a way to score more points (26.8) than they allow (27.0) per game.
Prediction: Bumpy game with no flow that helps Texas Tech win by 8+ points.
4. Toastery Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Afternoon kickoff (2:30 PM EDT) on 12/18/23 from Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. This matchup looks and sounds like a second round game during March Madness. Hilltoppers went 7-5 and finished fourth in Conference USA. Don’t have a signature win this season. Senior QB Austin Reed (3340 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs) has been honing his craft in anonymity. Seven deep WR/TE corps will do some statistical damage in this game. Monarchs went 6-6 and finished third in the Sun Belt conference. Have a signature win over Appalachian State (28-21) in Week 7. That clearly shows in a single loss elimination tournament, anything can happen. Wait….is this a football or basketball game?
Prediction: Western Kentucky uses their arial passing attack to win by 10+ points.
3. Frisco Bowl: UTSA vs. Marshall
Late evening kickoff (9:00 PM EDT) on 12/19/23 from Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. Roadrunners vs. Thundering Herd. 8-4 vs. 6-6. 30.9 vs 23.3 points scored per game. 24.7 vs. 28.2 points allowed per game. Seven winning streak vs. four game winning streak. Four straight winning seasons vs. seven straight winning seasons. This blogger has no reason to ignore the current 12.0 point betting line for the team from San Antonio, Texas.
Prediction: Entertaining game for three quarters and then UTSA pulls away to win by 14 points.
2. Boca Raton Bowl: South Florida vs. Syracuse
Evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/21/23 from FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida. Bulls stutter stepped through the 2023 season going 6-6. Trend shows South Florida either wins close games or gets blown out. QB Byrum Brown (3078 passing yards, 23 TDs) and WR Sean Atkins (961 receiving yards, 5 TDs) will play a ton of pitch and catch in this game. Defense is a sieve due to allowing 34.9 points per game. Orange can’t score on offense during scrimmages and struggle during pre-game walk-thru. Averaging 358.7 yards and 25.5 points per game. Those statistics make no sense for a moribund offensive unit. Starting QB will be a game time decision. RB LeQuint Allen (1062 rushing yards, 9 TDs) will be on an island during every offensive series. Fired head coach Dino Babers won’t be watching this game on his television set.
Prediction: Strangest bowl game of the opening week and Syracuse rallies for a 3 point gut check win.
1. Gasparilla Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. UCF
Evening kickoff (6:30 PM EDT) on 12/22/23 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Yellow Jackets went 6-6, with two quality wins over Miami (23-20) and North Carolina (46-42). Pushed Georgia in Week 13 for sixty minutes despite losing (31-23). QB Haynes King will rely on WRs Eric Singleton Jr. and Malik Rutherford to soften up the Golden Knights secondary. Georgia Tech is a young squad that is slowly gelling against top tier opponents. UCF is still well known for their 13-0 season in 2017 and going 12-1 in 2018. Had one moment of grandeur during their inaugural season in the Big 12, badly beating Oklahoma State (45-3) in Week 12. Finished 3-6 in conference play, which will keep the Golden Knights in low tier conversations until they improve. Senior QB John Rhys Plumlee will try to finish his collegiate playing career on a high note.
Prediction: UCF opens up their playbook and uses several trick plays to win by 8 points.
Storylines to follow heading into Bowl Games Part II
- Crank up the hype for the middle part of the 2023 bowl season and the CFP kicking off on 1/1/24
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Bowl Games Part I on 12/23/23 and try again in Bowl Games Part II.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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