This article covers predicted College Football Exciting Bowl Games Part II (12/21-12/27/22). Bowl season continues on 12/21/22 and that means ten games will be played by 12/27/22. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Bowl Games Part I Picks Recap
Bowl Games Part I – 8/11 thanks to UAB, BYU, Fresno State, Southern Mississippi, Oregon State, Boise State, Marshall and Eastern Michigan
Overall picks – 8/11 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 48/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 26/65
Conference Championship Games – 6/10
Bowl Games Part I – 8/11
Overall picks – 88/151 which is one standard deviation above the mean
College Football Bowl Games Part II
10. New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama
Late evening kickoff (9:00 PM EDT) on 12/21/22 from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Hilltoppers finished the season 8-5 and had one quality win over UAB (20-17). Two close quality losses to Troy (34-27) and UTSA (31-28). Best QB you’ve never heard of is Austin Reed (4247 passing yards, 36 TD passes, 199 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs). If Reed doesn’t opt out of this matchup and actually plays, he’ll be throwing to a WR you’ve also never heard of, Malachi Corley (1179 receiving yards, 9 TDs). Western Kentucky’s offense averages a robust 483.3 yards and 35.8 points per game.
Jaguars had a memorable regular season at 10-2, with two close quality losses to UCLA on the road (32-31), and at home to Troy (10-6). Currently riding a five game winning streak. Stud RB La’Damian Webb (1014 rushing yards 13 TDs) and a trio of talented WRs (Jalen Wayne, Caullin Lacy, Devin Voisin) with 19 total TDs, will set the tone for South Alabama’s offense. Defense is stingy due to only allowing 304.5 yards and 19.4 points per game.
Prediction: Scoreboard operator will get a ton of work in this high scoring game. South Alabama is a 4.0 point favorite and they’ll win by 8 points.
9. Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Air Force
Primetime kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 12/22/22 from Anon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Big-12 vs. Mountain West Conference is historically a mismatch. Bears came back down to earth in the 2022 season, going 6-6 and are on a three game losing streak. Head coach Dave Aranda quietly fired Baylor’s defensive coordinator (Ron Roberts) and special teams coordinator (Ronnie Wheat), at the end of the regular season. Defense is porous due to giving up 26.6 points per game and the special teams average return yardage is almost nil (17.1 yards).
Falcons had a solid season going 9-3 and won the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy due to wins over Navy (13-10) and Army (13-7). Head coach Troy Calhoun is underrated during sixteen seasons (2007-2022) at Air Force. Has only had four seasons with losing records (2012, 2013, 2017, 2018). QB Haaziq Daniels completed 36 passes for the entire season, but he runs the wishbone offense efficiently (614 rushing yards, 7 TDs). RB Brad Roberts (1612 rushing yards, 15 TDs) will get the ball in his hands 80-90% of the offensive plays.
Prediction: Despite being a 4.0 point underdog, Air Force will frustrate Baylor for sixty minutes with their ground control game and find a way to win by 3 points
8. Independence Bowl: Louisiana vs. Houston
Afternoon kickoff (3:00 PM EDT) on 12/23/22 from Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana. Ragin’ Cajuns had an up and down year in 2022, finishing 6-6 and have lost three of their last five games. One quality win over Marshall (23-13) on the road in Week 7. Should stick with the hot hand at QB, Chandler Fields, due to throwing for 346 passing yards and 3 TDs in the final two games of the regular season. WR Michael Jefferson has the size (6′-4″, 205 lbs) and the statistics (810 receiving yards, 7 TDs), to be a flier at the 2023 NFL combine.
Cougars seemed to take one step forward and then two steps back, to finish the season at 7-5. Quality wins over UTSA (37-35) and East Carolina (42-3). Still blinking my eyes at the box score when Houston lost to SMU (77-63) in Week 10 (halftime score was 56-35). QB Clayton Tune (3845 passing yards, 37 passing TDs, 491 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs) is a one man wrecking crew on offense. WR Nathaniel Dell has video game type statistics in 2022 (103 receptions, 1354 receiving yards, 15 TDs). Those are almost identical to WR Randy Moss’ 1998 rookie season in the NFL.
Prediction: Houston is a legitimate 7.0 point favorite and despite some spicy cooking and home crowd advantage for the Ragin’ Cajuns, win by 10+ points
7. Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri
Evening kickoff (6:30 PM EDT) on 12/23/22 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. This game might draw a bigger attendance crowd if it was renamed the Captain Jack Sparrow Bowl (just a suggestion). ACC vs. SEC matchup and both teams finished in the lower tier of their conferences. Demon Deacons finished 7-5 and faded badly down the stretch, losing four of their last five games. QB Sam Hartman (3421 passing yards, 35 TDs) will be throwing the ball all over the field to WR A.T. Perry (980 receiving yards, 11 TDs).
Tigers finished 6-6 and pushed #1 CFP ranked Georgia for sixty minutes in Week 5, losing 26-22. QB Brady Cook, RB Cody Schrader and WR Dominic Lovett run a good but not great offensive system. Offense is averaging 370.9 yards and 25.5 points scored per game. Defense is stout due to only allowing 337.3 yards and 25.0 points per game. Can Missouri’s secondary keep up with the frenetic pace that the Demon Deacons passing attack will try to set?
Prediction: Tough game to pick with Wake Forest being a 1.0 point favorite. Demon Deacons will expose Mizzou’s soft zone passing defense and win by 10+ points.
6. Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/24/22 from Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii. Wonder how many golf rounds both coaching staffs got in after daily practices were completed on the big island. Blue Raiders had a memorable season due to upsetting a ranked Miami squad on the road in Week 4 (45-31). Riding an impressive three game winning streak into this matchup. Undersized QB Chase Cunningham (2920 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 143 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs) will ty to keep the good times and vibes rolling.
Aztecs finished the regular season 7-5 and didn’t have any quality wins. Won three of their last four games and are still trying to find a team identity on offense. QB Jalen Mayden (1721 passing yards, 10 passing TDs) has been trying to coax more than 21.3 points scored per game out of his teammates. Head coach Brady Hoke still relies on a defense first coaching philosophy (335.4 yards and 20.2 points per game allowed).
Prediction: San Diego State is a solid 7.0 point favorite and they lean on their defense to win a close game by 6 points.
5. Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green
Afternoon kickoff (2:30 PM EDT) on 12/26/22 from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Three straight bowl games of teams with 6-6 records playing against each other. Time for this blogger to dig deep and find relevant or irrelevant data to make a sound final score prediction. If that plan doesn’t work, might be time to throw darts at a dartboard.
Aggies have won four of their last five games, including an impressive win over Liberty in Week 13 (49-14). Famous alumni include Joe Pisarcik (Miracle at the Meadowlands QB in 1978), Charley Johnson, Lou Henson and Rich Beem. Takes all kinds of students to matriculate and play collegiate sports in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Falcons have won four of their last six games. Season defining win was in Week 3 over Marshall (34-31). Notable alumni are Tim Conway, Robert Patrick, Rob Blake, Scott Hamilton, Mark Wells, Dan Bylsma and Sean Suisham. If any high schoolers want to be comedians, actors, or hockey players then the town of Bowling Green, Ohio should be considered.
Prediction: Bowling Green is a solid 3.5 point favorite and they take care of business winning by 4+ points
4. Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/27/22 from Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Both teams will be playing in a 25,000 seat stadium that currently hosts the FCS Kickoff game since 2017. Used to host the Blue-Gray Football Classic game that was typically played on Christmas Day from 1939 to 2001. First time this blogger saw multiple team stickers on a helmet during the 1983 game. Eagles have lost three out of four games to close out the regular season. QB Kyle Vantrease, RB Jalen White and WR Khaleb Hood might be household names after this game. Bulls have also lost three of their last four games. Head coach Maurice Linguist has improved Buffalo from 4-8 in 2021 to 6-6 in 2022. Due to Linguist’s recruiting skills, the Bulls will continue to trend up annually.
Prediction: Georgia Southern is a 3.5 point favorite and their three-headed offense will win by 9+ points
3. First Responder Bowl: Memphis vs. Utah State
Late afternoon kickoff (3:15 PM EDT) on 12/27/22 from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Tigers are on a bad streak due to losing five of their last seven games to finish at 6-6. QB Seth Henigan has had a solid season (3287 passing yards, 19 passing TDS, 315 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs). Hopefully he doesn’t get compared to Memphis QB alum Paxton Lynch. Denver Bronco fans still can’t get over that 2016 NFL Draft pick. Tigers have a WR/TE corps that goes five players deep and have scored a combined 17 TDs. Aggies are on the exact opposite streak, due to winning five of their last seven games. QB Cooper Legas (1465 passing yards, 11 TDs) will be handing the ball to his workhorse, RB Calvin Tyler Jr. (1043 rushing yards, 7 TDs) to keep the Tigers defense on their toes. WR trio of Brian Cobbs, Terrell Vaughn and Justin McGriff will show that a thunder and lightning approach to the passing game could be the new trend.
Prediction: Despite being a 7.5 point underdog, Utah State shows up and plays big for the Mountain West Conference and wins by 2 points
2. Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina
Evening kickoff (6:45 PM EDT) on 12/27/22 from Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama. Now we are getting back on track with an intriguing matchup between the 9-3 Chanticleers vs. the 7-5 Pirates. Coastal Carolina is on a bad two game losing streak, and also trying to play this game as their head coach has changed from Jamey Chadwell to Tim Beck. Starting QB Grayson McCall has already entered the transfer portal, so backup QB Jarrett Guest should get the nod. How to prepare for an offense with a new QB and interim coach has to be a challenge. Pirates were a fun team to watch in 2022, with six of their games being decided by three points or less. Had quality wins over UCF (34-13) and BYU (27-24). QB Holton Ahlers (3408 passing yards), RB Keaton Mitchell (1325 rushing yards) and WR Isaiah Winsted (1013 receiving yards), will play pitch and catch during this entire game.
Prediction: East Carolina is a strong 7.5 point favorite and they cover winning by 10 points
1. Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State
Late evening kickoff (10:15 PM EDT) on 12/27/22 from Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. Big Ten vs. Big 12, prior to one conference growing and the other conference shrinking. Badgers were a mixed bag squad this season and finished at 6-6. Starting QB Graham Mertz is transferring to Florida for the 2023 season and won’t play in this game. Factor in Luke Fickell being named the new head coach in late November 2022, and this will be the RB Braelon Allen (1126 rushing yards, 10 TDs) show. Cowboys started the season 6-1, and then imploded during the meat of their Big 12 conference schedule to finish at 7-5. QB Spencer Sanders will enter the transfer portal, causing freshman QB Garret Rangel to get the starting nod. RB Dominic Richardson and WR Brennan Presley will have to guide Rangel through the weird ebbs and flows of this bumpy matchup.
Prediction: Wisconsin is a 3.5 point favorite despite roster and coaching issues that won’t be rectified until the 2023 season. Mike Gundy will use some duct tape and bailing wire to will his team to an upset victory by 6 points, causing the mullet to still be a trendy hair style.
Storylines to follow heading into Bowl Games Part III
- Crank up the hype for the third part of the 2022 bowl season and the CFP kicking off on 12/31/22
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Bowl Games Part II on 12/28/22 and try again in Bowl Games Part III.
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