2023 Bowl Games Part II Picks Recap
Bowl Games Part II – 4/10 thanks to Northern Illinois, Coastal Carolina, North Texas and Kansas
Overall picks – 4/10 which is one deviation below the mean
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 57/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 28/65
Conference Championship Games – 5/10
Bowl Games Part I – 7/10
Bowl Games Part II – 4/10
Overall picks – 101/160 which is one standard deviation above the mean
College Football Bowl Games Part III
12. Holiday Bowl: Louisville vs. USC
Evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/27/23 from Petco Park in San Diego, California. To quote Stuart MacKenzie from the underrated movie “So I Married an Axe Murderer,” this matchup is good on paper but crap on field. Cardinals went 10-3 and were headed to the CFP, until back to back losses to Kentucky and Florida State to close out the season. QB Jake Plummer (22 total TDs), RB Jawhar Jordan (13 TDs), and WR Jamari Thrash (6 TDs) have the talent and ability to light up the scoreboard. Defensive unit was running on fumes during the last month of the season.
Trojans entered the season as a legitimate CFP team based on the 2022 season. Reality set in quickly and painfully during a Week 8 loss to Notre Dame (48-20). That led to losing four of their next five games to finish at 7-5. QB Caleb Williams won’t suit up in this game, due to looking towards his NFL future (bust alert, bust alert, he’s overrated). Lincoln Riley is a good regular season coach and a lousy bowl game coach. Going to be a bumpy offseason for the Trojans program.
Prediction: Louisville plays a full 60 minute game and win by 10 points.
11. Military Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Tulane
Afternoon kickoff (2:00 PM EDT) on 12/27/23 from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. Hokies beat the teams they were supposed to beat, lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to, and finished at 6-6 in the ACC. QB Kyron Drones was efficient with his statistics (1993 passing yards, 15 passing TDs). RB Bhayshul Tuten (727 rushing yards, 8 TDs) and WR Da’Quan Felton (667 receiving yards, 8 TDs) are big time players. Average defense had 38 sacks, 7 INTs, and 6 fumble recoveries.
Green Wave followed up their remarkable 2022 season (12-2) by going 11-2. Were riding a ten game winning steak until getting upset by SMU in the American Conference Championship game (26-14). QB Michael Pratt (2406 passing yards, 22 passing TDs), RB Makhi Hughes (1290 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs), and WR Chris Brazzell II (711 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs) will try to get the offensive train back on the tracks. New head Jon Sumrall will be taking detailed notes on his new squad for the 2024 season.
Prediction: Tulane will be focused to end the season on a good note and wins by 10+ points.
10. Mayo Bowl: North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Evening kickoff (5:30 PM EDT) on 12/27/23 from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Drake Maye era has officially closed in a Tarheels uniform, as he has opted out of this matchup to get ready for the 2024 NFL Draft. QB Conner Harrell will most likely get a spot start to see if he can sink or swim. Sophomore RB Omarion Hampton (1442 rushing yards, 15 TDs), will try to emulate a young Jerome Bettis and carry the rock on 90% of North Carolina’s offensive plays. Mountaineers had a quiet season at 8-4 and a tie for fourth place in the Big 12. Have won four out of their last five games heading into this matchup. Dual threat QB Garrett Greene (2178 passing yards, 15 passing TDs, 708 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs) is worth the price of admission.
Prediction: North Carolina pounds the line of scrimmage and has several time consuming drives to win by 4 points.
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State
Late evening kickoff (9:00 PM EDT) on 12/27/23 from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Another border state battle between teams from Texas and Oklahoma. Aggies went 7-5 and finally saw the light that underachieving head coach Jimbo Fisher had to be put out to pasture. For a roster that is filled with the top ranked recruiting class in 2022, averaging 403.8 yards and 34.2 points per game, seems like a low or negative return on investment. New head coach Mike Elko has his work cut out for him in 2024.
Cowboys overachieved at 9-4 and got blown out by Texas (49-21) in the Big 12 Championship game. QB Alan Bowman settled the starters down in the huddle during the second half of the season. RB Ollie Gordon II (1614 rushing yards, 20 rushing TDs) is the real deal and hopefully stays in Stillwater, Oklahoma in 2024. Head coach Mike Gundy is always good for a memorable quote or two during bowl games.
Prediction: Back and forth game on the scoreboard and Oklahoma State wins by 5 points.
8. Fenway Bowl: SMU vs. Boston College
Late morning kickoff (11:00 AM EDT) on 12/28/23 from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Mustangs finished 11-2 and are sky high after winning the American Conference Championship game over Tulane (26-14). Currently riding a nine game winning streak and playing with a ton of confidence. Sophomore QB Preston Stone (3197 passing yards, 32 total TDs) continues to play at a high level and isn’t intimidated on the big stage. Eagles went 6-6 in the ACC, but are ice cold on a current three game losing streak. Undersized (5′-10″, 196 lbs) sophomore QB Thomas Castellanos (2146 passing yards, 15 passing TDs, 957 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs), will continue to try and be Superman on every down. Castellanos could suit up on defense, since they only amassed 12 sacks, 8 INTs, and 8 fumble recoveries.
Prediction: SMU clicks in all three phases and wins by 14+ points.
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Miami
Afternoon kickoff (2:15 PM EDT) on 12/28/23 from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York. Scarlet Knights went 6-6 and haven’t won a game since beating Indiana (31-14) on 10/21/23. Run heavy offense with QB Gavin Wimsatt (488 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs) and RB Kyle Monangai (1099 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs). Need to have a player or two demand the ball on passing downs to soften up the Hurricanes secondary. Two game improvement (5-7 to 7-5), during the first two years of the Mario Cristobal era in Coral Gables. Despite the end of game meltdown against Georgia Tech in Week 6, Miami seems to be turning the corner with weekly effort and execution on both sides of the ball. Now they need to work on recruiting and keeping players on the roster.
Prediction: Most football games played at a baseball stadium are forgettable and this one follows suit. Miami wins a yawner by 6+ points.
6. Pop-Tarts Bowl: NC State vs. Kansas State
Evening kickoff (5:45 PM EDT) on 12/28/23 from Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Wolfpack overachieved in 2023 going 9-3 and riding a five game winning streak into this game. QB Brennan Armstrong (650 passing yards, 6 passing TDs) over the last three games, is peaking at the right time. Hard to believe that go-to WR Kevin Concepcion (767 receiving yards, 10 TDs) is only a freshman. Defensive unit will have to adjust without all-world LB Payton Wilson (138 tackles, 6 sacks, 3 INTs), who has opted out of this game to protect his NFL Draft stock.
Wildcats were a respectable 8-4 in 2023. Had quality losses to Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas. Starting QB Will Howard has entered the transfer portal, so freshman Avery Johnson will get the keys to the offense. RB DJ Giddens (1075 receiving yards, 9 TDs) can definitely play with the big boys. Five deep WR corps will have to take their skills up a notch, since TE Ben Sinnott has opted out of this game.
Prediction: Most exciting game of the Part III Bowl games and Kansas State wins by 3 points.
5. Alamo Bowl: Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Late evening kickoff (9:15 PM EDT) on 12/28/23 from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Wildcats had their most relevant season since 2014, going 9-3 and having fan flashbacks to the Desert Swarm defenses of 1993 and 1994. Sit back and enjoy the offensive chemistry between QB Noah Fifita (2515 passing yards, 23 passing TDs) and WR Tetairoa McMillan (1242 receiving yards, 10 receiving TDs). Fifita is only a freshman and McMillan is a sophomore, so Arizona looks to be back in a big way.
Sooners had a solid season at 10-2, but took back to back weekends off against Kansas (38-33) and Oklahoma State (27-24) to derail a dream season. QB Dillion Gabriel is already headed to Oregon via the transfer portal, causing freshman Jackson Arnold to get the starting nod. Running attack by committee will be tested severly by the Arizona defense. WRs Drake Stoops (880 yards, 10 TDs) and Nic Anderson (725 receving yards, 9 TDs) will have to play big, for the Sooners to have a chance in this game.
Prediction: Arizona wins a tight game by 6 points.
4. Gator Bowl: Clemson vs. Kentucky
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/29/23 from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. Tigers finished the 2023 season at 8-4 and ranked #22 in the CFP rankings. That was in serious jeopardy until going on a four game winning streak to end the regular season. QB Cade Klubnik is starting to look like a big game performer. Junior RB Phil Mafah (894 rushing yards, 9 TDs) emerged from a crowded RB corps and has been on a statistical tear the last five games. WR corps needs to learn how to stretch the field and not settle for 4 to 6 yard receptions.
Wildcats opened the season at 5-0 and then stumbled badly in the deep SEC to finish at 7-5. Had quality wins over Florida (33-14) and Louisville (38-31). Expect RB Ray Davis (1066 rushing yards, 13 TDs) to soften up the Tigers DL and LBs, to enable QB Devin Leary to hit a lot of crossing patterns. Will be an entertaining game for sixty minutes. Last team who has the ball wins.
Prediction: Clemson stays relevant yet again due to winning by 4 points.
3. Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Notre Dame
Afternoon kickoff (2:00 PM EDT) on 12/29/23 from Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas. Rematch of the 2001 Fiesta Bowl that Oregon State won easily (41-9). Beavers will be a shell of their 2023 roster, due to head coach Jonathan Smith moving on to Michigan State. QB DJ Uiagalelei has already entered the transfer portal. Stud RB Damien Martinez (1185 rushing yards, 9 TDs) will most likely not play due to issues he’s run into off the field. Oregon State will be short handed in this game prior to leaving the locker room. Fighting Irish went 9-3 with quality wins over Duke (21-14) and USC (48-20). QB Sam Hartman (2689 passing yards, 24 TDs) will look to close out his college playing career in style. RB Audric Estime (1341 rushing yards, 18 TDs) will be missed in this game due to already declaring for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Prediction: Notre Dame easily covers and wins by 7+ points.
2. Liberty Bowl: Memphis vs. Iowa State
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 12/29/23 from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. Tigers had the quietest 9-3 season of any team in the country. Had quality losses to Missouri (34-27), Tulane (31-21), and SMU (38-34). Have won five out of their last six games. QB Seth Henigan (3519 passing yards, 28 passing TDs) and RB Blake Watson (1045 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs) pace the offense. Defense is porous giving up 422.7 yards and 29.0 points per game. Cyclones had a bounce back season at 7-5, after going 4-8 in 2022. Freshman QB Rocco Becht (2674 passing yards, 20 passing TDs) has a five deep WR/TE corps to work with and a makeshift running game. Defensive unit is below average with 21 sacks, 16 INTs, and 3 fumble recoveries.
Prediction: Iowa State is favored for a reason and they win by 7 points.
1. Cotton Bowl: Missouri vs. Ohio State
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/29/23 from Jerry’s World in Arlington, Texas. Now the bowl game matchups get significantly better starting with this one. Tigers showed they officially belong in the SEC due to going 10-2 and currently ranked #9. Quality losses to LSU (49-39) and Georgia (30-21). Won four games that were one possession games (by 7 points or less). QB Brady Cook, RB Cody Schrader, and WR Luther Burden III will try to outscore the Buckeyes. Missouri’s defensive unit will be missing at least two starters and in for a long night.
Ohio State went 11-1 and inexplicably lost to Michigan (30-24) for the third straight season. That loss dropped them out of the CFP, and head coach Ryan Day will be digging deep to motivate his talented roster. QB Devin Brown will most likely get a spot start due to QB Kyle McCord being in the transfer portal. RB TreVeyon Henderson and hopefully WR Marvin Harrison Jr. will play in this game to show how an offense should stretch the field on every down.
Prediction: Ohio State shows off their offense and wins by 10+ points.
Storylines to follow heading into Bowl Games Part IV
- Crank up the hype for the fourth part of the 2023 bowl season and the CFP kicking off on 1/1/24
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Bowl Games Part III on 12/30/23 and try again in Bowl Games Part IV.
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