2023 Bowl Games Part III Picks Recap
Bowl Games Part III – 5/12 thanks to Oklahoma State, Arizona, Kansas State, Notre Dame and Clemson
Overall picks – 5/12 which is one standard deviation below the mean
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 57/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 28/65
Conference Championship Games – 5/10
Part I Bowl Games – 7/10
Part II Bowl Games – 4/10
Bowl Games Part III – 5/12
Overall picks – 106/172 which is one standard deviation above the mean
College Football Bowl Games Part IV
9. Peach Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Penn State
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/30/23 from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Intriguing matchup between the SEC and Big Ten. Rebels went 10-2 and are getting comfortable playing for head coach Lane Kiffin. Had quality losses to Alabama (24-10) and Georgia (52-17). Benefited from having a relatively easy schedule in the SEC compared to their peers. QB Jaxson Dart (27 total TDs) and RB Quinshon Judkins (16 total TDs) will be running and gunning up and down the field. Nittany Lions also went 10-2 in 2023. Lost to the big kids on the block in the Big Ten at Ohio State (20-12), and at home against Michigan (24-15). Sophomore QB Drew Allar (2336 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 170 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs) played better than advertised. Head coach James Franklin historically over prepares for bowl games and his squad will be ready to play.
Prediction: Physical game will be highlighted with some trick plays and Penn State wins by 3 points.
8. Music City Bowl: Auburn vs. Maryland
Afternoon kickoff (2:00 PM EDT) on 12/30/23 from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Tigers underachieved for first year head coach, Hugh Freeze, going 6-6 in the rugged SEC. Tip of the cap to transfer portal QB Payton Thorne (1671 passing yards, 15 passing TDs, 520 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs), for getting out of East Lansing, Michigan before the Mel Tucker firing. RB Jarquez Hunter (865 rushing yards, 7 TDs) will be a one man show, due to no depth in the WR/TE receiving corps.
Terrapins went 7-5 and had a bad four game losing streak from early October to early November. Senior QB Taulia Tagovailoa has opted out of this game and the Denver Broncos are tracking his NFL Draft stock on an hourly basis. QB spot will be filled with a coin toss between Cameron Edge and Billy Edwards Jr. Whomever starts under center has a decent four deep WR/TE receiving corps that will give the Tigers secondary fits.
Prediction: All signs point to SEC dominance in this matchup and Auburn wins by 8+ points.
7. Orange Bowl: Georgia vs. Florida State
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EDT) on 12/30/23 from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Two teams that were left out of the CFP bracket due to a timely loss and the lack of a dynamic starting QB due to injury. Welcome to 2023, its been a strange ride but the four best teams are seeded in the CFP semifinals. Bulldogs were coasting to a potential three peat and ran into a hungry Alabama squad in the SEC Championship Game (27-24 loss). Head coach Kirby Smart now gets to turn that loss into a learning experience and a springboard into 2024. Much easier said than done. RBs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton will have tough sledding against the stout Seminoles defensive front seven players.
Florida State got snubbed from the CFP due to their starting QB, Jordan Travis, blowing his knee out on 11/18/23. That led to the Seminoles being placed in the Orange Bowl and now they want to leave the ACC. Why does everyone use litigation in this day and age when they don’t get what they want? Welcome to 2023, it is what it is. Despite having a defense that only allows 305.7 yards and 15.9 points per game, there are simply too many players who have opted out. Georgia is the more focused squad and that’ll show on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Georgia might cover the point spread as they win by 14+ points.
6. Arizona Bowl: Toledo vs. Wyoming
Late afternoon kickoff (4:30 PM EDT) on 12/30/23 from Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona. Rockets vs. Cowboys. MAC vs. MWC. Small city in Ohio vs. tiny town in Wyoming. Didn’t realize this was a draft movie script for Toy Story 5. What a country we live in these days. 11-2 vs. 8-4. Quality loss to Illinois (30-28) and five close wins (7 points or less) vs. quality wins over Texas Tech and Appalachian State and three close wins (5 points or less). For some reason, this blogger remembers that the Cowpokes always play well in bowl games and their fan base loves to yell “move them chains.” Going to be a fun Saturday night on the streets of Tucson, no matter which team wins.
Prediction: Offensive explosion in the desert and Wyoming wins by 6 points.
5. ReliaQuest Bowl: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 1/1/24 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Badgers had an average season at 7-5 and are on a two game winning streak (Nebraska, Minnesota). For any bird watchers or fans of the movie “A Big Year,” there’s a Tanner Mordecai sighting in Madison, Wisconsin this season. Mordecai underperformed statistically (1687 passing yards, 6 passing TDs, 306 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs), which means he’s a perfect fit in first year head coach Luke Fickell’s offense.
Tigers finished 9-3 and their QB, Jayden Daniels, won the Heisman Trophy. Daniels has opted out of this bowl game and will be a high first round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Sophomore QB Garrett Nussmeier will most likely get the spot start, and will be handed the keys to an offense that is leading the nation with 547.8 yards and 46.4 points per game. As long as Nussmeier doesn’t turn the ball over, Wisconsin is in for a long and painful afternoon on defense.
Prediction: For the second straight year, LSU blows out a Big Ten opponent by 14+ points.
4. Fiesta Bowl: Liberty vs. Oregon
Afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EDT) on 1/1/24 from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Flames had a remarkable season at 13-0 and capped it off with a win in the Conference USA Championship game over New Mexico State (49-35). QB Kaidon Salter (2750 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 1064 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs) is a human pinball machine. RB Quinton Cooley (1322 rushing yards, 16 TDs) and WR CJ Daniels (988 receiving yards, 10 TDs), will test their skills against a legitimate Ducks defense.
Oregon had a great season at 11-2, but will be remembered for running into kryptonite twice against CFP bound Washington (36-33 loss in October, 34-31 loss in December). QB Bo Nix may or may not play, which could open the door for sophomore QB Ty Thompson to get some much needed reps in. Head coach Dan Lanning is building a a strong foundation in Eugene, Oregon and this squad will thrive in the Big Ten in 2024.
Prediction: Betting line has Oregon favored by -16.5 points and that’s low, since the Ducks win by 17+ points.
3. Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Afternoon kickoff (1:00 PM EDT) on 1/1/24 from Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The historically forgotten New Year’s Day bowl game that is played at a stadium that now focuses on concerts and monster truck races. Might need to visit Florida more often to try some key lime pie when this blogger’s schedule permits. Hawkeyes rode their two TE and split RBs set to a 10-3 record and a loss in the Big Ten Championship game against Michigan (26-0). QB Deacon Hill is a true game manager at the line of scrimmage (1096 passing yards, 5 passing TDs). Hill will lean on RB Leshon Williams (804 rushing yards, 1 TD) to pick up first downs and grind the clock. Head coach Kirk Ferentz will utilize “these aren’t the droids you’re looking for” offense to bleed the clock and keep the score manageable.
Volunteers finished 8-4 and third place in the SEC East. Didn’t have a memorable victory during the season and were basically road kill for the elite teams in the SEC. Starting QB Joe Milton III has opted out of this game, so start drooling over freshman QB Nico Iamaleava (6′-6″, 206 lbs) being the face of the program for the next two-to-three seasons.
Prediction: Strange and inconsistent game with Tennessee waking up in the second half to win by 10 points.
2. CFP Semifinal #1: Alabama vs. Michigan
Evening kickoff (5:00 PM EDT) on 1/1/24 from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. Now this is pod racing! Alabama is 12-1 and riding an eleven game winning streak. Completely different team than the one that lost at home to Texas (34-24) in Week 2. QB Jalen Milroe (2718 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 468 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs), is a polished player now, than he was during the first two months of the season. RB Jase McClellan (803 rushing yards, 6 TDs) keeps drives alive with his legs. WRs Jermaine Burton (8 TDs) and Isiah Bond (4 TDs) both know the importance of a crossing route and a deep out to keep defenses guessing.
Wolverines are in the CFP for the third straight year, due to dominating an underwhelming Big Ten conference to finish at 13-0. QB J.J. McCarthy is a sound game manager (2630 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 146 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs). RB Blake Corum is a yardage and scoring machine (1028 rushing yards, 24 TDs). WR Roman Wilson (11 TDs) and TE Colston Loveland (4 TDs) lead a six deep receiving corps. SEC vs. Big Ten matchup. Historically that’s a one side series.
Prediction: Could be as good as the 2017 CFP semifinal between Georgia vs. Oklahoma, or as bad as the 2014 CFP semifinal between Florida State vs. Oregon. The best venue in college football sees a memorable game with Alabama holding on late to win by 4 points.
1. CFP Semifinal #2: Texas vs. Washington
Primetime evening kickoff (9:45 PM EDT) on 1/1/24 from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Longhorns parlayed their big road win at Alabama (34-24) in Week 2, to a 13-1 season and won the Big 12 Championship game easily over Oklahoma State (49-21). QB Quinn Ewers (3161 passing yards, 21 passing TDs), RB Jonathon Brooks (1139 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs), and WR Xavier Worthy (969 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs), are the most talented offensive trio in the country. Defensive unit is no slouch due to only allowing 321.7 yards and 17.5 points per game.
Huskies rose to the top of an incredibly deep PAC-12 conference going 13-0 and beating Oregon twice. QB Michael Penix Jr. (4218 passing yards, 33 passing TDs), RB Dillon Johnson (1113 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs), and WR Rome Odunze (1428 receiving yards, 13 receiving TDs) will matchup well against Texas. X factor might end up being WR Ja’Lynn Polk (1000 receiving yards, 8 receiving TDs), since he seems to always be open on key third down plays. Washington has proven they can play with any team, on any field, and excel in close ball games. This matchup will be epic for sixty minutes.
Prediction: Most entertaining New Year’s Day game and Texas wins a tight contest by 3 points.
Storylines to follow heading into College Bowl Games Phase V
- Crank up the hype for CFP National Championship Game on 1/8/24
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Bowl Games Part IV on 1/8/24 and try again in Bowl Games Part V.
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