This article covers predicted College Football Exciting Bowl Games Part III (12/28-12/30/22). Bowl season continues on 12/28/22 and that means twelve games will be played by 12/30/22. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Bowl Games Part II Picks Recap
Bowl Games Part II – 4/10 thanks to Air Force, Houston, Wake Forest and East Carolina
Overall picks – 4/10 which is one standard deviation below the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 48/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 26/65
Conference Championship Games – 6/10
Bowl Games Part I – 8/11
Bowl Games Part II – 4/10
Overall picks – 92/161 which is one standard deviation above the mean
College Football Bowl Games Part III
12. Military Bowl: UCF vs. Duke
Afternoon kickoff (2:00 PM EDT) on 12/28/22 from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. Now the college bowl matchups are starting to heat up and this blogger needs to find an ounce or two of analysis logic to get back on the right track. Knights had a memorable season at 9-4, with quality wins over Cincinnati, Memphis and Tulane. Senior QB John Rhys Plumlee (2404 passing yards, 14 passing TDs, 841 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs), will continue to be Superman for UCF’s offense. Duke had a solid 8-4 season in the ACC and beat the teams they were supposed to. Sophomore QB Riley Leonard (2794 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 636 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs), has the statistics to compete with Plumlee. This will be an entertaining game for sixty minutes.
Prediction: Despite being 3.5 point underdogs, UCF finds a way to grind out a 6 point win
11. Liberty Bowl: Kansas vs. Arkansas
Evening kickoff (5:30 PM EDT) on 12/28/22 from Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. Big 12 vs. SEC is usually a mismatch and all pre-game indicators are pointing that direction. Jayhawks started the season at 5-0, with big wins over Houston, Duke and Iowa State. The rest of the Big 12 Conference caught up to Kansas, as they swooned to being 1-6 in their last seven games, to finish at 6-6. Currently on a three game losing streak. Razorbacks started hot as they always do early in a season at 3-0, thanks to a Week 1 victory over Cincinnati. Have cooled down significantly to finish at 6-6, and have lost three of their last four games. Still waiting for junior QB KJ Jefferson (2361 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 510 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs), to elevate this skills to another level.
Prediction: Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite and their overall team speed will lead to a 9+ point win
10. Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/28/22 from Petco Park in San Diego, California. Two high scoring offenses face off in one of the most underrated bowls since the early 1980s. Oregon finished the season at 9-3, with signature wins over BYU, UCLA and Utah. Only problem is the Ducks laid eggs against Georgia, Washington and Oregon State. First year head coach Dan Lanning changed the locker room culture in Eugene, Oregon in one season, and their 2023 recruiting class has been ranked in the Top 10. QB Bo Nix (3389 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, 504 rushing yards, 14 TDs) will light up the San Diego skyline with a vertical passing game.
Tarheels were cruising along at 9-1 and had one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation. Then started leaking oil to lose three straight games to end the season. Only averaged 18.0 points per game during the losing streak, compared to 40.1 points per game to get to 9-1. All eyes will be on freshman QB Drake Maye (4115 passing yards, 35 passing TDs, 653 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs), to see if he stays at North Carolina, or plays the rumored transfer portal game to get more NIL. Who wouldn’t want to play for college football royalty (Mack Brown), in the scenic Atlantic Coast region of the country?
Prediction: Oregon is a sound 13.5 point favorite and win by 14+ points due to the depth of their skill position players
9. Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
Late evening kickoff (9:00 PM EDT) on 12/28/22 from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Another Big 12 vs. SEC matchup and this one could get ugly on the scoreboard. Red Raiders had an up and down season to finish 7-5, but they made their wins count. Beat Houston, Texas and Oklahoma to clearly show they were the second best team in the state of Texas, behind only TCU. Offense is clicking along at 459.5 yards and 33.6 points per game. Defense is a wet sponge due to allowing 414.5 yards and 29.5 points per game. Hard to believe the late Mike Leach perfected the Air Raid offense in Lubbock, Texas during the 2008 season.
Rebels started the season 7-0, got distracted during a road game at LSU and sputtered to an 8-4 record. Currently on a three game losing streak, which can be blamed on the rumors of head coach Lane Kiffin moving to Auburn, or a young team finding out how not to get burned out in November. Kiffin signed a five year contract extension on 11/29/22 and now he can focus on developing sophomore QB Jaxson Dart (2613 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 548 rushing yards). Freshman RB Quinshon Jenkins (1476 rushing yards, 16 rushing TDs) looks like the real deal.
Prediction: High scoring game will feature several momentum swings and Ole Miss has a big defensive stand late in the game to win by 4 points
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse vs. Minnesota
Afternoon kickoff (2:00 PM EDT) on 12/29/22 from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York. Will Aaron Judge throw out the first pitch at this game? I mean the first pass or will he do the opening kickoff? This is what happens when college football is played in a historic baseball stadium. Orange went 6-0 during the first half of the regular season, slid to 1-5 down the stretch to finish at 7-5. Couldn’t recover mentally or physically after losing at Clemson (24-21) in Week 8. Head coach Dino Babers will have his squad ready to play. Duo of RB Sean Tucker (1060 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs) and WR Oronde Gadsden II (891 receiving yards, 6 TDs), should put on a show for their home state fans.
Gophers had a memorable Big Ten season finishing 8-4. Have won four of their last five games, which translates to a healthy 10.0 point favorite. Starting QB Tanner Morgan is doubtful for this matchup, which means even more carries to elite senior RB Mohamed Ibrahim (1594 rushing yards, 19 rushing TDs). Head coach P.J. Fleck continues to row the boat well in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Due to both teams probably starting backup QBs in this matchup, this will be a top tier rushing duel between Tucker and Ibrahim.
Prediction: Entertaining smash-mouth football game that will be close heading into the fourth quarter, when Minnesota starts to control the line of scrimmage and grind out a 9 point win
7. Cheez-It Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Evening kickoff (5:30 PM EDT) on 12/29/22 from Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Sooners had a disappointing 2022 season under first year head coach Brent Venables, finishing 6-6. Had two victories over ranked teams (Kansas, Oklahoma State), while both of those squads trended downward in a bad way. Transfer portal QB Dillon Gabriel (2925 passing yards, 24 passing TDs, 298 rushing yards, 5 rushing yards), was good but not great at the line of scrimmage. Defense was a work in progress during the entire season, allowing 450.5 yards and 29.6 points per game. Venables has landed a top 5 recruiting class for 2023, so the local residents in Norman, Oklahoma shouldn’t be complaining yet.
Seminoles had a bounce back year at 9-3, under third year head coach Mike Norvell. Stole a win against LSU in Week 1 (24-23) and went through a three game losing streak (Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson) in the middle of the season. Currently on a solid five game winning streak and the fan base seems to be forgetting about the Willie Taggart era. The trio of QB Jordan Travis, RB Trey Benson, and WR Johnny Wilson have seemingly laid the foundation, for a once proud and distinguished program to rebuild and move forward.
Prediction: Florida State is a big 9.5 point favorite and they’ll make a statement for the 2023 regular season due to winning by 14+ points
6. Alamo Bowl: Texas vs. Washington
Late evening kickoff (9:00 PM EDT) on 12/29/22 from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Big 12 vs. PAC-12 matchup that is must watch television viewing for all college football fans. Longhorns look to be reborn under second year head coach Steve Sarkisian, going 8-4 during the regular season. Four losses were by a combined 18 points (4.5 points per game). Two quality losses to Alabama (20-19) and TCU (17-10), show that Texas might survive when they officially move to the SEC in 2024. Longhorn fans will be saluting RB Bijan Robinson as he heads to the 2023 NFL Draft and welcoming their new star recruit at QB, Arch Manning to compete with Quinn Ewers.
Huskies had slipped a tier in the PAC-12 prior to the 2022 season. Decided to fire head coach Jimmy Lake in November 2021, due to numerous on and off-field incidents. New head coach Kellen DeBoer brought a new attitude and daily approach for the entire squad. Superstar transfer portal QB Michael Penix Jr. had a monster statistical season (4354 passing yards, 29 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs). Penix Jr. stretched the field in a way that Washington fans hadn’t seen in years, and he’s committed (as of today) to return for his senior season in 2023. If it wasn’t for a bad loss to Arizona State in Week 6 (45-38), the Huskies would have been a serious CFP contender.
Prediction: First game significantly impacted by a big name opt out player (Bijan Robinson). Despite being a 3.0 point underdog, Washington’s defense steps up to help Penix Jr. and the offense win a close game by 4 points.
5. Mayo Bowl: Maryland vs. N.C. State
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) on 12/30/22 from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Not sure if this matchup will live up to the hype of the post game tradition of a mayonnaise bath for the winning head coach. Terrapins finished 7-5 in the Big Ten and had three quality losses to Michigan (34-27), Purdue (31-29) and Ohio State (43-30). Maryland will go as far as Taulia Tagovailoa’s arm and legs will take him (2787 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs). Much like Forest Gump, you never know what you might get when the Terrapins line up on defense.
Wolfpack had a solid season in the ACC, going 8-4. Lost starting QB Devin Leary in Week 6 due to a torn pectoral muscle and he subsequently transferred to Kentucky for the 2023 season. Have adjusted their offensive scheme to being a heavy running team, with mixed results (3-3) during the second half of the season.
Prediction: Despite being a 1.0 point underdog, Maryland shows off Tua’s little brother and wins by 10+ points
4. Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. UCLA
Afternoon kickoff (2:00 PM EDT) on 12/30/22 from the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas. Two historical programs travel to the desert in Texas, for an intriguing east vs. west matchup. Panthers somehow, someway moved on from QB Kenny Pickett in 2021, to dealing with the biggest dud of the 2022 transfer portal, QB Kedon Slovis (2397 passing yards, 10 TDs). Pittsburgh finished 8-4 for the regular season, which clearly shows how talented head coach Pat Narduzzi is, at taking lemons and making lemonade.
Bruins were 9-3 and seem to be motivated playing for head coach Chip Kelly. Senior QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a dream season (2883 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 631 rushing yards, 11 rushing yards), proving that it can help your NFL draft prospects by playing all years of college eligibility, instead of leaving school early. RB Zach Charbonnet and WR Jake Bobo held up to heavy workloads during the regular season, and that’ll be the game plan for this bowl.
Prediction: UCLA is a steady 5.5 point favorite and they win by 7+ points
3. Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs. South Carolina
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) on 12/30/22 from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. First year head coach Marcus Freeman rallied the Fighting Irish from a bad 0-2 start to the season, finishing at 8-4. Have won five out of their last six games, with a dominating signature win over Clemson in Week 10 (35-14). Currently without a QB due to starter Drew Pyne transferring to Arizona State. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman is the rumored candidate to start in 2023. Notre Dame will rely on RB Audric Estime (825 rushing yards, 11 TDs) to move the chains and try to channel Jerome Bettis’ style of play from the 1992 Sugar Bowl.
Gamecocks are also 8-4, but have two huge wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the 2022 regular season. Transfer portal QB Spencer Rattler (2780 passing yards, 16 TDs) played his best football in November. Helps that WR Antwane Wells Jr. (898 receiving yards, 6 TDs) is a dependable security blanket.
Prediction: Top notch coaching matchup between Marcus Freeman and Shane Beamer. Despite being a 2.0 point underdog, South Carolina has less roster issues right now and win a close game by 6 points.
2. Arizona Bowl: Ohio vs. Wyoming
Late afternoon kickoff (4:30 PM EDT) on 12/30/22 from Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona. Bobcats finished first in the MAC during the regular season, but were shutdown by Toledo (17-7) in the MAC Championship Game. Finished 9-4 and have won seven of their last eight games. Second year head coach Tim Albin has turned the program around, after going 3-9 in 2021. Time to see if QB Kurtis Rourke (3256 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 249 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs), can hang with a formidable Mountain West opponent.
Wyoming’s 7-5 season started with a bad loss to Illinois (38-6) and finished with a thud against Fresno State (30-0 loss). Would have been nice to see stud RB Titus Swen (1039 rushing yards, 8 TDs) play in this game, but he’s opted out for the 2023 NFL Draft. Cowboys seem to have a thin bench at the skill positions, but they always play well in bowl games..
Prediction: Despite being a 1.5 point underdog, Wyoming has won three straight bowl games under head coach Craig Bohl and they extend that streak to four games due to winning by 7+ points
1. Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs. Clemson
Primetime evening kickoff (8:00 PM EDT) on 12/30/22 from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The would have, could have, should have matchup of SEC vs ACC. Volunteers were sitting as the #1 CFP seed in early November, before losing to Georgia and badly to South Carolina. Lost starting QB Hendon Hooker in Week 12 due to a knee injury. Head coach Josh Heupel has turned around the Tennessee program completely in two seasons. He’ll rely on backup QB Joe Milton III and WR Jalin Hyatt (1267 receiving yards, 15 TDs) to try and keep pace with Clemson for sixty minutes. That’s easier said than done.
Tigers are still kicking themselves for a bad loss to Notre Dame (35-14), and an ill timed loss to South Carolina (31-30) in Week 13. If Clemson would have won either of those games, they’d be playing in the CFP. Head coach Dabo Swinney will now start freshman QB Cade Klubnick and rely on RB Will Shipley to move the chains. Tigers defense isn’t as stout as it used to be.
Prediction: Clemson is a steady 4.5 point favorite and they win by 3 points in walk-off fashion due to better coaching and roster experience
Storylines to follow heading into Bowl Games Part IV
- Crank up the hype for the fourth part of the 2022 bowl season and the CFP kicking off on 12/31/22
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Bowl Games Part III on 12/31/22 and try again in Bowl Games Part IV.
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