This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #11 and top 5 upsets. Week #11 is here and that means the heart of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 10 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to UTSA, Ohio State, Alabama and Oklahoma State
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 2/5 correct thanks to Wyoming and Army
Overall picks -6/10 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 34/50 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 20/50 correct
Overall picks – 54/100 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from University Park, PA. The would have, could have, should have Big Ten match up that was going to have a major impact on the CFP rankings, is now a game the Wolverines have to win. Nittany Lions beat Maryland in Week 10 after a bad three game losing streak. Michigan rebounded with a victory over Indiana after the nail bitter against Michigan State. The James Franklin head coaching rumors of moving to USC have quieted down with Penn State stumbling in October. Hard to admit that Jim Harbaugh made a good decision to shake up his coaching staff with younger assistants, to motivate and gel with the players better. Wolverines lead this historical series 14-10, starting in 1993 when Penn State joined the Big Ten.
Prediction: Michigan is currently a 1.5 point road favorite and they will win by 4 points
4. Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from McLane Stadium in Waco, TX. Sooners are now in the hardest part of their 2021 schedule, with three straight games against quality teams (Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State). Even though the Sooners are 9-0 and have made the correct decision by starting Superman (Caleb Williams) at QB, the CFP committee hasn’t been impressed with their resume. Dave Aranda has quietly turned the Bears program around since being named head coach in 2020. His name will start to be linked to the USC head coaching search rumors if the Bears finish this season in a top tier bowl game. Sooners have dominated this historical series leading 28-3 since starting in 1901, with a long pause until 1973.
Prediction: Oklahoma is currently a 5.5 point road favorite and will work hard to win this game by 7 points
3. Georgia vs. Tennessee
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN. Weekly activity of seeing how well the Bulldogs defense plays on the road. Defensive Coordinator Glenn Schumann has done an incredible job raising Georgia’s level of play since getting promoted in 2019. Hoping that USC is paying attention to yet another assistant coach that cut his teeth at Alabama under Nick Saban, and is now shining on the biggest stage. Volunteers fans now have more to watch than the team running thru the T prior to kickoff. Tennessee has shown moments of solid team play, despite three quality losses (Pittsburgh, Alabama, Ole Miss) and one bad loss (Florida). Josh Heupel has adjusted nicely to life in the SEC and hopefully his recruiting skills are on par with his coaching style.
Prediction: Georgia is currently a 20.0 point road favorite and they might cover, as they start to think about the SEC Championship game on 12/4/21
2. Purdue vs. Ohio State
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. Boilermakers are the current trendy team in college football due to beating Iowa (ranked #2) on the road in Week 6, then throttling Michigan State (ranked #3) at home in Week 10. Senior QB Aidan O’Connell will have to produce another monster game through the air for Purdue to have a chance in this game. Buckeyes are on a seven game winning streak and officially had their wake up call in Week 10 with a lackluster victory over Nebraska. Three quality opponents (Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan) to close out the 2021 regular season will have Ohio State positioned where they usually are every November, right in the middle of the CFP.
Prediction: Ohio State is currently a 21.0 point home favorite and won’t cover that line, but will win by 17 points
1. Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS. Both teams come into this matchup at 7-2 for the 2021 season. Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher has been quiet about the job opening at LSU, since the departure of Ed Orgeron was announced a month ago. Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin hasn’t been quiet this season, especially after a big road win at Tennessee in Week 6. Matt Corral, the Rebels dual threat QB, is having a memorable season and has crept up some of the rumored Heisman Trophy lists. Corral will need to show patience in the pocket against seven man blitzing fronts the Aggies have been using to disrupt offensive game plans.
Prediction: Texas A&M is currently a 2.5 point road favorite and this will be an entertaining game for 60 minutes. Aggies win by 4 points.
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #11 Upsets that might happen
5. Minnesota vs. Iowa
Gophers just locked up their head coach P.J. Fleck contractually through 2028, and the team responded with a bad home loss to Illinois. Please pay attention USC during your coaching search, due to “dark horse” candidates suddenly not being available. Hawkeyes have been inconsistent during their last three games, with losses to Purdue and Wisconsin and a lack luster win over Northwestern. Iowa needs to stick with Alex Padilla at QB to re-energize their offense that has become tired and stagnant. Small chance of snow in the forecast for the 3:30 PM EST kickoff from Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, IW. Hawkeyes are a current 4.5 point home favorite, but the Gophers should keep the score close into the fourth quarter.
4. Notre Dame vs. Virginia
Are the Fighting Irish still an “unofficial” member of the ACC Conference? Didn’t that agreement only last for the 2020 season due to Covid-19? If the Fighting Irish are truly an Independent school for 2021, why are they playing five teams from the ACC? I need to increase my research time and try to figure out these unanswered questions to be able to sleep at night. Notre Dame enters this game at 8-1 with a quality loss to Cincinnati, and their last three games (Virginia, Georgia Tech, Stanford) appear to be easy victories. Cavaliers have three quality losses (Wake Forest, North Carolina, BYU) and their offense likes to exceed 40+ points per game. Bronco Mendenhall will have the Hoos ready to play at the iconic Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, VA despite being 6.5 point home underdogs.
3. NC State vs. Wake Forest
Wolfpack are 7-2 and ranked #16 vs. the Demon Deacons at 8-1 and ranked #12. First place in the Atlantic Division of the ACC is at stake in this game. Demon Deacons are still mad about losing to North Carolina in Week 10 (58-55), despite leading in the fourth quarter by fourteen points. Head coach Dave Clawson will now get to show if he’s an elite coach by motivating his team to get back on a winning streak, or fold like a cheap card table. USC is watching Clawson’s coaching style very closely. NC State has no pressure entering this game as a 2.5 point road underdog, and will relish the opportunity to turn the ACC upside down in November.
2. Nevada vs. San Diego State
Late night Mountain West Conference games can be a blessing or a curse to pick the correct team. I jumped on the Aztecs bandwagon in Week 9 due to their strong defense, and they rewarded me by losing. Haven’t paid any attention to Nevada in 2021, but they have two quality losses (Kansas State, Fresno State) and are consistent on offense. Aztecs punting unit has been producing astronomical statistics this season, with Matt Araiza averaging 52.0 yards per punt. Can’t wait for analytics to take over college football. San Diego State is a current 3.0 point home favorite, but the Wolf Pack will be in this game late into the fourth quarter.
1. Washington State vs. Oregon
Late night PAC-12 games are almost as hard to predict as the Mountain West games. Not convinced the Ducks are the third best team in the country based solely on their Week 2 victory at Ohio State. Ducks lost to a lousy Stanford team and have been playing down to the level of their opponents for the majority of their conference games. Mario Cristobal is an overrated head coach, despite his Alabama coaching experience under Nick Saban. Cougars have had a season to forget with the firing of their head coach, Nick Rolovich, due to not being vaccinated for Covid-19. Washington State played loose and confident during their last two games against BYU and ASU. That trend will continue at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR despite being 14.0 point road underdogs. Ducks always take one home game off a season and tonight is that night.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #11 and try again in Week #12.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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