This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #12 and top 5 upsets. Week #12 is here and that means the heart of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 11 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Michigan, Georgia and Ohio State
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 0/5 correct thanks to all betting lines being accurate
Overall picks -3/10 which is two standard deviations below the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 37/55 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 20/55 correct
Overall picks – 57/110 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Columbus, OH. A huge game on paper that has Big Ten conference title game implications and CFP seedings at stake. Spartans have over achieved in being 9-1 and #7 in the CFP standings. Mel Tucker has done an outstanding head coaching job during his second season in East Lansing, MI. Seems like a lifetime ago that the Buckeyes were dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage in Week 2 at home against Oregon. Ryan Day and the entire Buckeyes coaching staff have their players peaking at the right time, which is turning into an annual ritual in Columbus since 2014. Spartans haven’t won at The Shoe since 2015 and they will need a huge rushing game from Kenneth Walker III to have a chance at winning on the road.
Prediction: Ohio State is currently a big 19.0 point home favorite and they will win by 10+ points
4. Wake Forest vs. Clemson
Afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Memorial Stadium in Clemson, SC. Unofficial passing of the Atlantic Division torch from the Tigers to the Demon Deacons. Head Coach Dave Clawson continues to run a tight ship at Wake Forest and his name will pop up in coaching rumors at LSU and USC. Dabo Swinney has quietly led the Tigers to a three game winning streak after losing to Pittsburgh. Clemson needs to quickly find an offensive game plan that scores some points, or this game will be another snapshot of their inconsistent 2021 campaign. Swinney may empty his playbook and call every trick play he knows, just to keep up with Wake Forest. That’s a bad sign for a historically dominant CFP team that needs to turn the page sooner than later.
Prediction: Wake Forest is currently a 4.5 point road underdog and will grind to win this game by 7 points
3. Arkansas vs. Alabama
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL. Last time Arkansas played the #2 ranked team in the country was against Georgia in Week 5 and they were throttled 37-0. Alabama will be waiting for the Hogs in Tuscaloosa, to continue their annual November scrimmages until the SEC Championship game on 12/4/21. Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young continues to lead the Heisman Trophy race (3025 passing yards, 33 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs). Helps that WR Jameson Williams has had a quiet season of 51 receptions, 1028 receiving yards and 10 TD catches. Williams is the latest junior WR from Alabama that will most likely be a top 10 NFL draft pick in 2022.
Prediction: Alabama is currently a 20.5 point home favorite and they will cover that line
2. SMU vs. Cincinnati
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. Has it really been thirty-four years since SMU was given the NCAA Death Penalty due to paying their football players a salary? Times have changed under their last three coaches (June Jones, Chad Morris, Sunny Dykes), with the Mustangs playing in six bowl games over the last thirteen seasons. Bearcats have an impressive road win at Notre Dame in Week 4, and now they get to make another statement to the CFP committee with a home game against the 8-2 Mustangs. Head Coach Luke Fickell has done a masterful job guiding the Bearcats in 2021, and he’s becoming one of the front runners for the USC head coaching job. Here’s hoping the Bearcats give the CFP committee a big giant Lou Brown burger to think about, if they are undefeated at the end of the season.
Prediction: Cincinnati is currently a 10.0 point home favorite and will win by 14 points
1. Oregon vs. Utah
Evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, UT. This is a hard game to pick, since both teams are trending towards a rematch in the PAC-12 Championship Game on 12/3/21, no matter what happens in Week 12. Ducks continue to impress the CFP committee due to their road win at Ohio State in Week 2. Oregon seems to be bored with the PAC-12 by playing down to their opponents score wise, week after week. Utes are always waiting to spring a late season upset win or two, due to how well head coach Kyle Whittingham gets his squad ready for games in November and December. Weather at kickoff is calling for light rain and temperatures in the mid-40s. Ducks will feel like they are playing a wet home game at Autzen Stadium.
Prediction: Oregon is currently a 3.0 point road underdog and will win this game by 4 points. Be very wary of Utah during the rematch on 12/3/21.
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #12 Upsets that might happen
5. Air Force vs. Nevada
I keep getting drawn to these late night Mountain West Conference (MWC) games like a moth to a flame. Both teams enter this matchup with 7-3 records and need some help to reach the MWC Championship Game. Falcons have three quality losses against Utah State, San Diego State and Army. Wolf Pack has three quality losses against Kansas State, Fresno State and San Diego State. Something will have to give at Mackay Stadium in Reno, NV between these two teams. Falcons are currently a 1.0 point road favorite, but the Wolf Pack’s aerial offense will beat the option game this time.
4. UCLA vs. USC
Missing the days when this was a classic matchup for the Battle of Los Angeles, with bragging rights being used for crosstown recruiting principles. Times have changed with the carousel of head coaches at UCLA since 2003, and at USC since 2009. Trojans currently lead this series 49-32-7, starting in 1937. USC has won the last two games in 2019 and 2020.
Chip Kelly has brought some swagger and confidence back to the Bruins program in 2021, but the defense needs to game plan better for passing teams. Trojans are a mess from their athletic department to the coaching staff, and hopefully their big head coach hire in late 2021/early 2022 will jump start a program that badly needs to hit the refresh button. UCLA is a 3.5 point road favorite due to their two headed RB attack and NFL ready TEs. If the Trojans have any team pride, they will keep this game close in the second half due to their home fans.
3. Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
What can I say about the Big 12 conference during the 2021 season? Cyclones were the trendy pick to win the Big 12 in August, then they stumbled badly against Iowa in Week 2. Close losses to Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech have derailed a season that looked so bright, but will end up being grey to dark grey.
Sooners were sitting below the CFP committee radar at #8 going into Week 11, with everything lined out in front of them schedule wise. Let the Big Ten trip each other up, see if the PAC-12 gags like they usually do, and then grab the #3 or #4 slot with an undefeated season. Baylor clearly showed that QB Caleb Williams isn’t Superman on every fall Saturday, and Dave Aranda outcoached Lincoln Riley for the second straight season. Sooner fans will be very anxious to see if their team is emotionally up or down for this game. Oklahoma is a 3.5 point home favorite, but Iowa State always plays them tough and close, no matter the venue.
2. Baylor vs. Kansas State
Bears are trending up at an opportune time after beating Oklahoma in Week 11. Head Coach Dave Aranda’s name is moving up quickly for the LSU and USC openings. Baylor literally ran directly at the Sooners defense with QB Gerry Bohanon and RB Abram Smith picking up large chunks of yardage. Wildcats will try to establish their own running game by leaning heavily on diminutive RB Deuce Vaughn, who has 13 rushing TDs. Baylor’s team speed, quick WRs and motivational coaching will be hard to slow down for opponents over the next two to three weeks. Bears are clicking at exactly the right time. Kansas State is a 1.0 point home favorite, but Baylor will be ready from the opening kickoff and will win this game easily.
1. California vs. Stanford
The annual Big Game will be played in Palo Alto, CA on Saturday evening for the 124th time in this storied San Francisco Bay Area rivalry. Stanford leads the series 60-44-10, dating back to 1892. Winning team gets to keep the Stanford Axe trophy for twelve months. Most memorable moment from this series occurred in 1982, with the final Cal Bears squib kickoff return for a touchdown simply called “The Play.” Five laterals and one smashed Stanford band member directly led to John Elway not getting to play in a bowl game during his senior season.
Bears come limping into this game at 3-6 and they are one of the worst teams in FBS. Stanford upset Oregon in OT during Week 5 and subsequently lost five straight games to be 3-7. The local fans will enjoy this game and talk about 2022 being a better season for both teams. California is a 2.0 point road favorite at The Farm, but Stanford will play for 60 minutes and make the fourth quarter interesting.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #12 and try again in Week #13.
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