This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #13 and top 5 upsets. Week #13 is here and that means the heart of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 12 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 3/5 correct thanks to Ohio State, Alabama and Cincinnati
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 0/5 correct thanks to all betting lines being accurate
Overall picks -3/10 which is two standard deviations below the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 40/60 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 20/60 correct
Overall picks – 60/120 correct which is right at the median
Egg Bowl kicks off from Starkville, MS at 7:30 PM EST on Thanksgiving night. Plenty to play for both of these teams: bragging rights in the state of Mississippi, solidifying a Top 10 season for the Rebels, making Lane Kiffin a real head coaching candidate for the Florida Gators, and Bulldog fans finally embracing their quirky head coach Mike Leach. Game will feature Ole Miss QB Matt Corral (3100 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 552 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs) and MSU QB Will Rodgers (4113 passing yards and 34 TDs). Matchup has the potential to be an offensive shootout, which would be a great way to start off a monumental college football weekend to end the 2021 regular season.
Prediction: Ole Miss is currently a 2.0 point road underdog and they will win by 10 points
4. Ohio State vs. Michigan
The Game is huge this year with an afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EST) from the Big House in Ann Arbor, MI. Winning team moves onto the Big Ten Championship Game on 12/4/21. Buckeyes are peaking at the right time behind QB C.J. Stroud (3468 passing yards, 36 passing TDs). If the Buckeyes continue to light up the scoreboard, they have a legitimate chance to have three WRs end up with 1000+ receiving yards for the season, and one RB has already exceeded 1000+ rushing yards. Wolverines have stayed below the national radar this season and overcome a road loss to Michigan State in Week 9. Jim Harbaugh has let his younger coaching staff bond and push this current squad to a 10-1 season record and they have everything they could ask for waiting in front of them. High-flying Buckeyes offense vs. ball control Wolverines offense means something has to give.
Prediction: Ohio State is currently an 8.0 point road favorite and will cover that line easily
3. Alabama vs. Auburn
Iron Bowl has a late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EST) from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, AL. Crimson Tide lead this series 47-37-1 dating back to 1893. Strange endings have happened in this series over the past ten years, with the winner typically moving onto the National Title Game or the CFP. Alabama will roll out a stripped down offensive playbook for this matchup, since they are quietly preparing for the SEC Championship Game against Georgia on 12/4/21. Tigers have had an up and down season with quality wins (LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss) and quality losses (Penn State, Georgia, Texas A&M). Enter this game with two bad losses to Mississippi State and South Carolina. Will be a defensive game for about 20-30 minutes and then the Tide will get rolling on offense due to QB Bryce Young.
Prediction: Alabama is currently a 19.5 point road favorite and will win by 14 points
2. Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
Late afternoon kickoff (4:00 PM EST) from Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. Winner of this game most likely heads to the Big Ten Championship game on 12/4/21 against the winner of the Ohio State vs. Michigan game. Badgers have been resilient with an 8-3 record, despite having inconsistent QB and RB play for the entire season. Enter this game with an impressive seven game winning streak and they could play a major CFP spoiler on 12/4/21. Gophers have a 7-4 record with two quality losses (Ohio State, Iowa) and two bad losses (Bowling Green, Illinois). Minnesota has locked up head coach P.J. Fleck contractually until 2028 and hopefully his squad continues to trend up, as the Big Ten appears to improve on an annual basis.
Prediction: Wisconsin is currently a 7.0 point road favorite and will win by 4 points
1. Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Bedlam has an evening kickoff (7:30 PM EST) from Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, OK. Cowboys have been keeping a low profile this season, by letting the Sooners get all of the media buzz due to their QBs (Spencer Rattler and Caleb Williams). Sooners were cruising along towards a possible CFP seed, until a physically dominating loss to Baylor in Week 11. Cowboys have won most of their games due to a suffocating defense and a ball control offense. Mike Gundy has a tendency to be forgotten as a head coach in the Big 12, due to the constant hype of Lincoln Riley and now Dave Aranda. Beware of Gundy’s mullet and the Cowboys who have been waiting for this game all season.
Prediction: Oklahoma State is currently a 4.0 point home favorite and will win this game by 7 points
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #13 Upsets that might happen
5. Boise State vs. San Diego State
Broncos are 4-1 on the road this season and have played good teams close (lost to UCF by 5 points and Oklahoma State by 1 point). Aztecs have had a memorable season at 10-1, with their only loss to Fresno State. San Diego State relies on their underrated team defense and the best special teams unit in the country. Broncos like to throw the ball from between the 20 yard lines and then use their stable of RBs to score in the red zone. That will play right into the Aztecs strength. Good matchup to keep a slow holiday Friday afternoon moving forward. Boise State is currently a 3.0 point road favorite, but San Diego State’s D will rule this game.
4. North Carolina vs. NC State
In-state rivalry that has an evening kickoff (7:00 PM EST) on Friday. Tarheels are 6-5 entering this game and they are on a lose-win pattern for the last eight weeks. Not sure if Mack Brown will want to return as head coach in 2022, or if he’ll even be given a choice. Wolf Pack have been a pleasant surprise at 8-3, with quality losses to Mississippi State and Wake Forest. There’s a tendency when in-state rivals meet for the “big brother” to keep the “little brother” in line. “Little Brother” is currently a 6.0 point home favorite, and I think that “big brother” will be in this game late into the fourth quarter by being a pain in the neck, similar to cranberry sauce.
3. Oregon State vs. Oregon
Ducks leads this series 66-48-10, dating back to 1897. Ducks have won 11 of the past 13 meetings, but the Beavers are still talking about their 41-38 victory in 2020. Can’t explain how Oregon went on the road and beat Ohio State in Week 2, tripped at Stanford in OT in Week 5, to blown out in Week 12 at Utah. Beavers are playing for pride and a mid-tier bowl invitation, despite bad losses to California and Colorado. Ducks are currently 7.0 point home favorites but something is off with their team leadership and chemistry. Beavers will hang around in the third quarter and then the fourth quarter will be gut check time.
2. Penn State vs. Michigan State
This Big Ten matchup looked much better three-to-four weeks ago, before the Nittany Lions lost four of their last six games. Rumors surrounding James Franklin’s coaching future were put to bed earlier this week, when he signed a ten year extension to stay at Penn State. USC missed their chance with Franklin and are now onto plan B. Spartans were flying high at 8-0, ranked #3 in the CFP and then reality set in. Purdue exposed their secondary by throwing for 536 yards in Week 10. Ohio State ran an offensive clinic in Week 12, which is becoming an annual tradition.
Thankfully the Spartans locked up head coach Mel Tucker to a new ten year contract on 11/24/21. LSU missed their chance with Tucker and are now looking at plan C. Both teams should play loose and confident due to solid coaching staffs and trying to improve their bowl invitations. Penn State is currently a 2.0 point road favorite, but Michigan State gets a big home win to close out a remarkable 2021 season.
1. Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
Panthers have had a magical season at 9-2 and are prepping for the ACC Championship game on 12/4/21 against Wake Forest. Kenny Pickett will probably finish in the top 10 for the Heisman Trophy, and it’ll be interesting to see where he’s projected for the 2022 NFL Draft. Syracuse is limping to the end of the regular season at 5-6, but they have played the top tier ACC teams close this year. Dino Babers always has his squad ready to play and they’ll push the 13 point road favorite Panthers into the second half.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #13 and try again in Week #14.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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