This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #4 and top 5 upsets. Week #4 is here and that means more non-conference and conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 3 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Michigan State, Oklahoma, Penn State and Alabama
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 3/5 correct thanks to West Virginia, Utah State and BYU
Overall picks – 7/10 which is above the winning %’s of the current San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 8/15 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 7/15 correct
Overall picks – 15/30 correct which is Even Steven in Seinfeld talk
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Stillwater, OK. A Big-12 matchup that used to be an old school Big-8 matchup. Both teams are quietly 3-0 with minimal media coverage. That’s probably due to the current state of the Big-12 conference. Kansas State is led by a two headed running attack of Deuce Vaughn and Joe Erwin. Wildcats are going to have to dig deep to cover for senior QB Skylar Thompson’s knee injury. Oklahoma State is experimenting with a throwing QB, Shane Illingworth and a running QB, Spencer Sanders. Haven’t seen that approach since John Cooper was coaching at Ohio State in the late 1990s.
Prediction: Oklahoma State wins by 10 points due to homefield advantage at Boone Pickens Stadium.
4. Rutgers vs. Michigan
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from the Big House in Ann Arbor, MI. Wolverines have a legitimate running game led by Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins. Not convinced their game manager at QB, Cade McNamara, will be the real deal with tougher Big Ten games later in the season. Rutgers is relevant again due to their head coach Greg Schiano. Unfortunately two Scarlet Knights defensive backs are suspended for this game due to a campus paint ball incident earlier this week. Wolverines will take advantage of an undermanned secondary for the entire game.
Prediction: Michigan coasts to a 14+ point victory and a much tougher schedule is on the horizon
3. Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin
Early kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. Attendance might be 50% Badger fans and 50% Fighting Irish fans. Graham Mertz has gotten off to a slow start as the Badgers QB. Badgers prefer to run the ball and play stout defense. Fighting Irish’s QB, Jack Coan, will be very motivated in this game to prove why he transferred from Wisconsin to Notre Dame. Notre Dame has some talented defensive players, led by Kyle Hamilton who will be a big star at the NFL level next season.
Prediction: Tight game from start to finish and Notre Dame wins by 6 points
2. Tennessee vs. Florida
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Gainesville, FL. How long ago was it when Peyton Manning couldn’t win this game for the Volunteers (1994-1997)? Gators should be a focused team after playing defending national champion Alabama to the last snap in week #3. Volunteers are still getting used to a new coach (Josh Heupel), and how the SEC has turned into a juggernaut conference. Gators are currently favored by 19 points and that’s a generous line.
Prediction: Gators cruise to a 17+ point victory
1. Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Late afternoon kickoff at 3:30 PM EDT from AT&T Stadium (Jerry’s World) in Arlington, TX. Aggies have won nine straight games in this series since 2012 and might be a legitimate national title contender. Razorbacks showed some defensive stones against Texas in Week #2, and they have exceptional speed on the offensive side of the ball. Aggies are still trying to figure out how to play consistent offense with their backup QB, Zach Calzada. TE Jalen Wydermeyer might be the next Shannon Sharpe after his college career ends.
Prediction: 2021 has been a hard season to predict so far and the last team to be 0-9 against an opponent was Oregon vs, Ohio State. I’d love to pick Arkansas in an upset, but Texas A&M squeaks by with a 4 point victory.
College Football Top 5 Upsets that might happen
5. Missouri vs. Boston College
SEC vs. ACC is usually a no-brainer on picking the winning team. Eagles are 3-0 and currently listed as a home underdog at +1.5 points. Better pump the brakes since those three wins are against Colgate, Massachusetts and Temple. Tigers get forgotten about in the SEC due to being a mid-to-lower tier team. Missouri has wins against Central Michigan and Southeast Missouri State. This would be a much better basketball matchup, but the home team has a chance this weekend.
4. SMU vs. TCU
The battle of Dallas will be held at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. Mustangs are 3-0 and the Horned Frogs are 2-0. Mustangs won on a Hail Mary touchdown pass in Week #3 against Louisiana Tech. Horned Frogs beat California by two points in Week #2 and are just getting warmed up for Big-12 conference play. Nice to see SMU rebound as a football program after receiving the NCAA death penalty in 1987 and playing teams outside the American Athletic Conference. 30 for 30 ESPN documentary “Pony Excess” is worth watching. TCU is favored by 9.5 points, but this game will be much closer.
3. Boise State vs. Utah State
Toss up game due to the 1-2 Broncos vs. the 3-0 Aggies, playing at Maverik Stadium in Logan, UT. Boise State was nipped by Central Florida in Week #1 and Oklahoma State in Week #3, which are quality losses. Utah State has quality wins against Washington State and Air Force. The team that wins this game will be in the drivers seat to win the Mountain West conference. Gut feeling is the Broncos are going to get some good football karma on the road this week.
2. Iowa State vs. Baylor
After watching the Cyclones establish a solid running game and an opportunistic defense in 2020, I was convinced they were going to take a huge step forward in 2021. That perspective changed in Week #2, when a very good Iowa team took care of the Cyclones on the road in easy fashion. Baylor used to be one of the top programs in the Big 12, until lack of program control and coaches not communicating led to restructuring. Bears are 3-0 but they don’t have any quality wins yet in 2021. Playing at home and currently listed as 7.0 point underdogs, Baylor will give the Cyclones a test into the fourth quarter.
1. Clemson vs. NC State
Tigers have regressed badly on offense this season due to the lack of confidence by their new QB D.J. Uiagalelei. Clemson’s defense has been the unsung hero since their annual CFP run started in 2015, but its hard to always play from behind. Wolfpack sophomore QB Devin Leary might be the real deal due to his early season statistics. Clemson is a strong 10.0 point road favorite, but NC State has had this game circled since 2020 and they’ll be ready to help the Tigers dynasty window close early in the ACC.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football exciting top 5 Week #4 and try again in Week #5.
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