This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #5 and top 5 upsets. Week #5 is here and that means the official start of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 4 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Oklahoma State, Michigan, Notre Dame and Florida
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 5/5 correct thanks to Boston College, SMU, Boise State, Baylor and NC State
Overall picks – 9/10 which is above the winning %’s of the current San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 12/20 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 12/20 correct
Overall picks – 24/40 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Late night kickoff (9:00 PM EDT) from Baton Rouge, LA. An SEC West matchup, with the team that loses looking up at the winner, Arkansas and Alabama. Auburn has shown program resurgence under new coach Brian Harsin, but inconsistent QB play by Bo Nix. Not to mention the huge SEC officiating crew “pass completion” call in Week #4, to avoid an upset loss to Georgia State. LSU has been maddingly inconsistent since winning the 2020 College Football Championship against Clemson. 5-5 season in 2020, to a 3-1 start in 2021 with a bad loss to UCLA in Week #1. This game will boil down to the team that gets more consistent QB play for 60 minutes and executes sound defense. For some reason, both of these teams take plays off and they seem disinterested in what they are trying to do on a weekly basis.
Prediction: Hard game to pick due to the body of work by both teams to date. Auburn wins by 4 points to muddle the SEC West standings.
4. Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
Evening kickoff (7:00 PM EDT) from Stillwater, OK. Baylor has a quality win over Iowa State in Week #4. Oklahoma State has two quality wins over Boise State and Kansas State. Cowboys seem to be playing with a chip on their shoulder, due to their “big brother” OU Sooners pending move to the SEC in 2025 or earlier. Bears are content being back in the Top 25 rankings, but they are still cleaning up the mess left behind by Art Briles’ coaching staff. Will be a high scoring game with several momentum swings due to key turnovers.
Prediction: Oklahoma State continues to work on their running game and grind out a 9 point victory
3. Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame
Late afternoon kickoff (2:30 PM EDT) from Notre Dame, IN. Bearcats come into this game ranked #7 and the Fighting Irish ranked #9. Safe assumption that Mike Tirico will be gushing about the Fighting Irish national title chances, even though its only Week #5 (i.e. pump the brakes NBC). Cincinnati has had a solid head coaching tree (Mark Dantonio to Brian Kelly and then stumbling until hiring Luke Fickell in 2017). Kelly’s team will be motivated to play against his last coaching stop. Bearcats are carrying the CFP hopes of the American Athletic Conference, which is a big burden to bear on the road against a highly ranked opponent. Hard to get a feel for this game due to the significant differences in offensive sets and player talent. If this is tied in the third quarter, don’t change the channel.
Prediction: Tight game from start to finish and could end up in overtime, with Notre Dame winning by 7 points
2. Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Tuscaloosa, AL. Now things are getting interesting in the SEC. Doesn’t seem that long ago, when the Rebels beat the Crimson Tide in back-to-back seasons (2014 and 2015). Or the high scoring affair in 2020, with Alabama winning 63-48. Looked and felt like Lane Kiffin knew Nick Saban’s playbook before every snap and then adjustments were made late in the fourth quarter to be the difference maker. Crimson Tide are currently 14.5 point favorites at home, and the Rebels haven’t had a quality win yet. Does that factor into the final score? Not at all since this will be a barn burner for 60 minutes.
Prediction: Crimson Tide eke out an 8 point win
1. Arkansas vs. Georgia
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from between the hedges in Athens, GA. Both teams come in 4-0 with eyes on the SEC Championship game and a shot or two at Alabama. Need to play this game first to see which team has the inside track. Georgia is almost playing at a pro level on the defensive side of the ball. Main problem the Bulldogs have to solve is at QB. JT Daniels is not a CFP caliber QB and he’s nursing a back injury. Backup QB Stetson Bennett is a senior and has patiently waited for his opportunity to be a starter. Razorbacks continue to run through teams like a buzz saw and they are playing with a ton of confidence and no fear. That’s a winning recipe on the road in the SEC these days.
Prediction: I’m finally going to trust my gut and pick Arkansas to win by 4 points to officially turn the SEC upside down
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #5 Upsets that might happen
5. Florida vs. Kentucky
Historically the Wildcats always play the Gators tough, whether its football or basketball. Wildcats come into this game 4-0, including three close victories. Florida took care of business in Week #4 against Tennessee and are focused under Dan Mullen’s watch in 2021. Hopefully the Gators can avoid the injury bug. Gators are currently 7.5 point favorites on the road, but this matchup screams “trap game.” Balanced Wildcats offense will test the Gators defense. Gators need to diversify their offense a little to ease the workload on their dual threat QBs. Game will be close in the third quarter and then home field advantage may become a factor.
4. Northwestern vs. Nebraska
Matchup of two underwhelming teams in Lincoln, NE. Pat Fitzgerald has done an incredible job getting the Wildcats competitive in the Big Ten. Uphill battle in 2021 due to a QB (Hunter Johnson) who is simply overwhelmed, and then dumping all offensive plays on Evan Hull to make something happen. I could go on for several paragraphs about what has transpired with the Cornhuskers program, since Scott Frost was named head coach in 2018. Simply put, the Huskers are a bad team with a downward trajectory and it’ll take a reboot to turn the program around. Cornhuskers are currently 11.5 point favorites at home. They won’t cover that line let alone win this game. Coaching hot seat will only warm up more for Frost after Week 5.
3. Louisville vs. Wake Forest
3-1 vs. 4-0 in the suddenly unknown ACC standings due to Clemson’s loss in Week #4. Demon Deacons have clawed their way back into the top 25 rankings, thanks to a balanced offense led by QB Sam Hartman. Louisville is a one player offense led by QB Malik Cunningham, who is a budding superstar at the college level. Currently sitting at 998 yards passing and 263 yards rushing for the 2021 season. Scary thing about Cunningham, is he literally looks like a twin brother of Lamar Jackson. Be afraid Demon Deacons, be very afraid. Wake Forest is currently a 7.0 point home favorite, but this game will be much closer than that.
2. Syracuse vs. Florida State
3-1 vs. 0-4 at Doak Walker Stadium in Tallahassee, FL. No need to over analyze this game. Seminoles are one of the worst FBS teams in the country this season, and no idea why they are 5.5 point favorites at home. Syracuse wins easily and Dino Babers name starts to be linked to head coaching rumors with USC.
1. Bowling Green vs. Kent State
Falcons are 2-2 after a program defining win at Minnesota in Week #4. Golden Flashes limp into this home game at 1-3 and haven’t been competitive in any of their loses. Experts currently list a 16.5 point home favorite for Kent State, which makes no sense statistically. This is a lock for the Falcons and hopefully Orel Hershiser gives them a shout out during the 2021 MLB playoffs.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #5 and try again in Week #6.
Never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater in Vegas!
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