This article covers predicted College Football Exciting top 5 Week #9 and top 5 upsets. Week #9 is here and that means the heart of conference matchups. Time to continue a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar. Hard part about doing this exercise in 2021, is trying to determine if any of the 2020 trends will continue. 2020 was the season of partial team schedules due to Covid-19 impacts, all players getting an extra year of eligibility and transferring schools without having to sit one season.
2021 Week 8 Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 4/5 correct thanks to Notre Dame, Oregon, Pittsburgh and Alabama
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 0/5 correct thanks to all betting lines holding for the favorites
Overall picks – 4/10 which is one standard deviation below the mean
2021 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 26/40 correct
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 17/40 correct
Overall picks – 43/80 correct which is one standard deviation above the mean
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Pittsburgh, PA. Hurricanes vs. Panthers games started in 1950 and Miami currently leads 28-11-1, including wins in the last three seasons (2018-2020). Last time there was a highly ranked team in this matchup was 2017, when the Hurricanes entered that game at 10-0 and ranked #2. Panthers won that game 24-14 behind a solid running game and a freshman QB named Kenny Pickett. Miami hasn’t recovered from that loss as a program. Pittsburgh is currently in the drivers seat for the ACC Coastal Division and should benefit from higher ranked teams losing down the stretch this season.
Prediction: Pittsburgh is currently a 9.0 point home favorite and they’ll easily cover that line
4. Penn State vs. Ohio State
Primetime kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. Matchup has lost some luster due to Penn State limping into this game with back to back losses against Iowa and Illinois. Buckeyes are doing their annual late season climb up the polls due to beating teams they are supposed to. Give Ryan Day and his coaching staff credit for sticking with the offensive and defensive games plans after a bad home loss to Oregon in Week #2. Usually this game is tight for 60 minutes with significant momentum swings due to turnovers and special teams. That won’t happen today due to the Nittany Lions running on fumes and the continued speculation that head coach James Franklin is headed to USC.
Prediction: Ohio State is currently a 19.5 point home favorite and will win easily, but the Buckeyes won’t cover that line
3. Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK. Red Raiders have two bad losses (Texas, TCU) and a one point loss to Kansas State in Week #8. Due to not meeting expectations, head coach Matt Wells was fired earlier this week. Texas Tech isn’t competitive against the middle to top tier teams in the current Big 12 conference. Sooners enter this game at 8-0 behind the energizing play of freshman QB Caleb Williams. Williams was a human highlight reel against Texas in Week #6 and TCU in Week #7, but took the first half off against Kansas in Week #8. Sooners think they can turn their offense on and off like a light switch, but they need to focus in November due to three straight games against ranked teams. Williams is must watch tv on Saturdays for the remainder of the 2021 season.
Prediction: Oklahoma is currently a 19.0 point home favorite and they’ll easily cover
2. Georgia vs. Florida
Late afternoon kickoff (3:30 PM EDT) from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL. 2021 version of the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party between the #1 ranked Bulldogs and a tired Gators team. Georgia is clicking on defense and trying to fine tune their offense on a weekly basis. Florida is on a lose, win, lose, win, lose pattern but that won’t continue this week against the best team in college football. Doesn’t look like any of the remaining opponents on Georgia’s schedule will be a challenge until the SEC Championship Game in early December. Start your betting pool early on which Bulldog coaches will be at new schools in 2022. Kirby Smart took a lot of notes when he worked for Nick Saban at Alabama.
Prediction: Georgia is currently a 14.0 point neutral site favorite and will win this game by 17+ points
1. Michigan vs. Michigan State
Early afternoon kickoff (12:00 PM EDT) from Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI. Wolverines are 7-0 and ranked #6 and the Spartans are 7-0 and ranked #8. Big brother vs. little brother. John Harbaugh vs. Mel Tucker. Big Ten is finally catching up schedule wise to the rest of the country this week and down the season stretch in November. Both teams are a spitting image of each other due to running the ball first and then relying on play action passes. Spartans punt returns could be the difference in this game, to flip the field position on change of possessions. Harbaugh doesn’t have a good career record against Michigan State and Ohio State. The Fox and ESPN Gameday onsite crews will discuss that ad nauseum during the pre-game shows this morning.
Prediction: Michigan is currently a 4.0 point road favorite and they won’t cover or win this game. Spartans win by two points in walk off fashion and the first CFP poll on 11/2/21 will be chaos.
College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #9 Upsets that might happen
5. Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Hawkeyes are the forgotten team in the Big Ten after losing at home to Purdue in Week #7. Badgers have underperformed and enter this game at 4-3. Graham Mertz has been a bust at QB for Wisconsin due to throwing for 2 TDs and 7 INTs on the season. Hawkeyes will run the ball a ton at Camp Randall Stadium to mitigate the student section from jumping around to House of Pain. This will be a boring game, with the exception that the Badgers are current 3.0 point home favorites and Iowa will use that as bulletin board material to win this game.
4. Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech
Battle of the Techs from Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, GA. Both teams are 3-4 heading into this matchup, and both schools play with a lot pride due to having highly rated technical academic programs. Hokies will part ways with head coach Justin Fuentes at the end of this season and they will then be competing with LSU and USC. Yellow Jackets have been consistent in ACC conference play by beating the teams they are supposed to (North Carolina and Duke), and losing to the teams they are supposed to (Clemson, Pittsburgh and Virginia). Georgia Tech is currently a home favorite by 4.0 points, but the Hokies will get back to their early season form when they upset North Carolina.
3. Ole Miss vs. Auburn
Lane Kiffin has a resilient Rebels team this season and they’ve become SEC warriors with big wins at Tennessee and home against Arkansas and LSU. Rebels will need to to show their intestinal fortitude tonight when they step onto the field at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, AL. Tigers are tough at home and they have two quality loses to Penn State and Georgia. Brian Harsin has completed a quiet transition from Guz Malzhan this season as the new head coach at Auburn. He’ll try to keep his squad from looking too far ahead to the Iron Bowl against Alabama. Tigers are currently 3.0 home favorites, but the Rebels play with no fear and they are trending up.
2. Virginia vs. BYU
Late season ACC vs. Independent matchup (10:15 PM EDT) from Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT. Both teams are 6-2 with similar resumes. Cavaliers have three close (8 points or less) ACC wins. BYU have four close (9 points or less) wins against a myriad of conference opponents. The talking heads will spend time discussing both head coaches (Kalani Sitake at BYU and Bronco Mendenhall at Virginia). Mendenhall preceded Sitake at BYU from 2005-2015 and is an underrated coach. Cavaliers are a basketball first school, but the football team’s record has improved each of the last four seasons to be trending in the right direction. Cougars are ecstatic to be joining the Big 12 conference in 2023 and play each game with a quiet confidence. BYU is currently a 2.5 point home favorite, but Virginia will push them around for 60 minutes.
1. Fresno State vs. San Diego State
Bulldogs have a quality loss to Oregon and an atrocious loss to Hawaii. QB Jake Haener will be playing on Sundays next season in the NFL, he has quietly thrown for 2582 yards and 22 TDs, and rushed for 3 TDs. Aztecs are 7-0 thanks to a gutty road win at Air Force in Week #8. San Diego State relies on a diversified running game and the most unheralded defense in all of college football. Aztecs rank #7 in points scored against per game at 15.7 and #5 in yards allowed per game at 279.4. Hats off to head coach Brady Hoke for turning the Aztecs into a 1970s/1980s team and focusing on the fundamentals of football. Fresno State is currently a 1.0 road favorite, but the Aztecs will stay undefeated on the season due to the home crowd advantage.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of College Football Exciting Top 5 Week #9 and try again in Week #10.
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