2023 Bowl Games Part III Picks Recap
Bowl Games Part IV – 5/9 thanks to Georgia, Wyoming, LSU, Oregon, and Tennessee
Overall picks – 5/9 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2023 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 57/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 28/65
Conference Championship Games – 5/10
Part I Bowl Games – 7/10
Part II Bowl Games – 4/10
Bowl Games Part III – 5/12
Bowl Games Part IV – 5/9
Overall picks – 111/181 which is one standard deviation above the mean
CFP National Championship Game
Washington vs. Michigan
Evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) on 1/8/24 from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The whole bag of marbles comes down to a matchup between the PAC-12 and Big Ten. No SEC or ACC participants this season. Symmetry can be considered a blessing or a curse. Is it just a coincidence that the last CFP national championship game before expanding to twelve teams next season, matches the first CFP national championship game conferences in 2015 (Ohio State of the Big Ten vs. Oregon of the PAC-12).
SEC has six CFP titles (after the 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons). ACC has two CFP titles (after the 2016 and 2018 seasons). Big Ten has one CFP title (after the 2014 season). Michigan can book end the four team CFP era with a another title for the Big Ten, or Washington can add the PAC-12 to the elite conferences in the country.
University of Washington Analysis
Huskies are 14-0 after hanging on against Texas (37-31) in the Sugar Bowl on 1/1/24. Have won eight games by seven points or less and seem to have a steady pulse in tight ballgames. Treated the Sugar Bowl as a 400M track and field sprint, due to getting a third quarter lead (31-21), and then barely holding that staggered start until the clock hit 0:00. QB Michael Penix Jr. (430 passing yards, 2 passing TDs), has ice water in his veins and no stage seems too big. He’ll transition smoothly into the NFL in 2024.
RB Dillon Johnson (49 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs) is banged up, but plays better when the chips are down and all talking heads are ignoring him. Tandem WRs Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, will continue to stretch the field on every play due to their size, speed, and precise route running ability. Defense is good but not great, due to allowing 396.9 yards and 23.6 points per game. Special teams are solid with K Grady Gross scoring 110 points and P Jack McCallister averaging 41.0 yard per punt. Head coach Kalen DeBoer is unflappable as the leader of this squad and he lets his players play.
University of Michigan Analysis
Wolverines are 14-0 after sneaking by Alabama (27-20 in OT) in the Rose Bowl on 1/1/24. Have won three games by seven points or less. Rely on a dominating defense for the third straight season, that is only allowing 239.7 yards and 9.5 points per game. Had six critical sacks against the Crimson Tide, that helped keep the score close into the fourth quarter. All of the talking heads will analyze QB J.J. McCarthy as an efficient game manager and will rely heavily on RB Blake Corum (26 total TDs).
All WR Roman Wilson does is catch TDs (12 total), and he was the freshest player on the field late in the Rose Bowl to be a huge difference maker. Special teams are sound with K James Turner scoring 109 points and P Tommy Dorman preferring the coffin corner method instead of yardage. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is finally in the biggest game of his college coaching career, but still has a bitter taste in his mouth from Super Bowl 47.
Prediction: Should be an entertaining game if Washington can find ways to score against the best defense in the country. Michigan slowly makes progress on getting timely pressure on Penix Jr. late in the fourth quarter and wins by 4 points.
Same bat time, same bat channel next week. I’ll review the results of CFP National Championship Game on 1/15/24 and turn my attention to the 2024 College Football season..
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