This article covers the predicted College Football Playoff National Championship Game to be played on 1/9/23. Bowl season officially started on 12/16/22 and 41 games were played by 1/2/23. CFP Semi-final games were played on 12/31/22. Time to get into a weekly cadence of highlighting the best games to watch. Also determining the potential upsets lurking below the radar.
I analyzed college football games for the entire 2021 season, had a modest success rate of 66.2% for top 5 exciting games and 33.9% for top 5 upsets. Adding in the top 10 conference championship games, all bowl games and the College Football Playoff (CFP), my adjusted success rate was 53.4% (95/178 games). Hoping my skills don’t regress in 2022 and continue to improve, for a second year player dipping his toes back into the prediction pool. Definitely looking forward to full stadiums, debates about two super conferences and Lee Corso making his weekly mascot pick on ESPN GameDay.
2022 Bowl Games Part IV Picks Recap
Bowl Games Part IV – 5/8 thanks to Alabama, Iowa, Georgia, Mississippi State and LSU
Overall picks – 5/8 which is one standard deviation above the mean
2022 All Picks Recap
Top 5 games to watch – 48/65
Top 5 upsets that could happen – 26/65
Conference Championship Games – 6/10
Bowl Games Part I – 8/11
Bowl Games Part II – 4/10
Part III Bowl Games – 6/12
Part IV Bowl Games – 5/8
Overall picks – 103/181 which is one standard deviation above the mean
College Football Playoff 2021-2022
1. National Championship at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA: TCU vs. Georgia
Overview
Primetime evening kickoff (7:30 PM EDT) from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Intriguing matchup between the Big 12 Conference vs. SEC. This will be the fifth time that the Horned Frogs have played the Bulldogs. Georgia leads the historical series 4-0, with the last game played at the 2016 Liberty Bowl (31-23 Georgia victory). Ironically the 2016 Liberty Bowl was Kirby Smart’s first bowl game played after his first season as Georgia’s head coach. Bulldogs are trying to win their fourth national title (1942, 1980, 2021). Horned Frogs are trying to win their third national title (1935, 1938). Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has led his Bulldogs to the CFP national championship game for the third time since 2017. TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has his squad in the CFP national championship game for the first time.
Offense
Raw Statistics
TCU enters this game averaging 474.1 yards of offense per game (269.6 passing yards, 204.5 rushing yards) and scoring 41.1 points per game. Georgia has been quietly efficient on offense the entire season by averaging 494.9 yards per game (293.0 passing yards, 201.9 rushing yards) and scoring 39.4 points per game. Based on a simple numerical analysis, the Horned Frogs should be 1.7 point favorites based on team offense statistics only.
TCU Analysis
Horned Frogs are led by senior QB Max Duggan (3546 passing yards, 32 passing TDs, 461 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs). Running game relies on three RBs, with Kendre Miller leading the way with 1399 rushing yards and 17 TDs. Miller is currently listed as questionable for this game, due to spraining the MCL in his right knee in the CFP Semi-final game. If Miller is unable to play, senior RB Emari Demercado is the next man up. Receiving corps goes six players deep and is highlighted by junior Quentin Johnson (1066 receiving yards, 6 TDs). Michigan is still having nightmares about trying to cover Johnson during huge situational plays in the Fiesta Bowl.
Georgia Analysis
Bulldogs have unflappable senior QB Stetson Bennett (3823 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 166 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs). Senior RB Kenny McIntosh carries the running load with 779 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, 505 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs. Sophomore TE Brock Bowers leads a nine player deep receiving corps with 790 receiving yards and 6 TDs. Georgia has a much deeper RB backfield with four players, when compared to their 2021 National Champions squad. Bennett stills throw the football a ton to move the chains and time of possession doesn’t matter as Ohio State found out in the Peach Bowl.
Advantage – Georgia by a hair due to Kendre Miller’s knee injury. If Miller was 100% healthy and ready to play, both offenses are almost a mirror image of each other and would be even.
Defense
TCU’s defense has been above average for most of the 2022 season, due to allowing 385.1 total yards allowed per game (235.6 passing yards and 149.5 rushing yards) and 25.0 points against. Horned Frogs did amass 30 total sacks, 16 interceptions, and 6 fumble recoveries. Were able to take four of the interceptions back for defensive TDs. Defensive unit has a tendency to be porous in the first quarter, start to gain field position in the second quarter, and then limits all scoring in the third and fourth quarter of most games. That strategy may backfire against the high octane offense of Georgia. Three man wrecking crew at LB (Johnny Hodges, Jamoi Hodge, Dee Winters), will try to get into the backfield and push plays towards DL Dylan Horton (10 sacks).
Georgia’s uber talented 2021 defensive unit only allowed 253.9 total yards and 9.5 points per game. Followed those gaudy statistics up in 2022, by allowing 292.1 total yards per game (215.1 passing yards and 77.0 rushing yards) and 12.8 points against. Bulldogs amassed 30 total sacks, 10 interceptions, and 6 fumble recoveries. No turnovers were converted into defensive TDs. Defensive unit typically dominates the line of scrimmage and slowly sucks the life out of the opposition’s offense. Not as flashy as the 2021 squad, but just as effective. Not to mention they are experienced on the biggest stage and very comfortable playing in a tight game. LB Smael Mondon Jr. will try to disrupt at the line of scrimmage and funnel plays towards DBs Malaki Sparks and Christopher Smith. If the Bulldogs secondary is playing well, this will be a long game for TCU.
Advantage: Georgia due to roster depth and an ability to shut down the middle of the field
Special Teams
TCU has had a solid kicking game with senior Griffin Kell converting 61/63 extra points and making 17/19 field goal attempts. Those statistics equal 112 points on the scoreboard. Senior punter Jordy Sandy has averaged 40.1 yards per punt, with a limited sample size of 58 punts. Georgia senior kicker Jack Podlesny has converted 65/65 extra points and making 25/30 field goal attempts. Those statistics equal 140 points on the scoreboard. Freshman punter Brett Thorson is averaging 44.9 yards per punt, with limited action due to the efficient Georgia offense.
Advantage: Slight edge to Georgia due to scoring 28 more points with the FG kicking unit and an additional 4.8 yards per punt. TCU did hit a 40 yard FG at the buzzer to nip Baylor in Week 12 (29-28), but this game won’t come down to a walk off ending.
Coaching
Sonny Dykes has been a college football head coach since 2010. Was at Louisiana Tech from 2010-2012, California from 2013-2016, and then at SMU from 2018-2021. Got the job at TCU in 2022, after twenty year head coach Gary Patterson walked away from the program on 10/31/21. Son of the long time head coach at Texas Tech (1986-1999), Spike Dykes. Motived and led a senior heavy squad to college football’s biggest stage in one season. That’s impressive, most impressive.
Kirby Smart was the defensive coordinator at Alabama from 2008-2015 and learned a significant amount of information on how to run a competitive and successful program. Became the head coach at Georgia in 2016 and has quickly turned the Bulldogs into one of the country’s elite teams. Smart is another branch of the Nick Saban coaching tree and has a very bright coaching future in front of him.
Advantage: Georgia due to Kirby Smart’s experience in big games and trying for a repeat national championship
Intangibles for TCU
Since the inception of the Bowl Series Championship (BCS) game during the 1998 season, then transitioning to the CFP during the 2014 season, there have been twenty-four “national-title” games played. Big 12 Conference is 2-5 in those games. Oklahoma broke through in a big way in 2000, beating Florida State 13-2. Texas won the Game of the Century in 2005, beating USC 41-38.
Nebraska lost badly in 2001 to Miami. Oklahoma was pushed around by LSU in 2003, USC flew by them in 2004, and Bob Stoops got a bad nickname after losing to Florida in 2008. Texas tried to make a game of it against Alabama in 2009, despite losing their starting QB early in the first quarter. Horned Frogs are the latest hope to bring a national title to the first major conference that expanded in 1996, but is now trying to reshape on the fly with Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC in 2024.
Intangibles for Georgia
SEC is 14-6 in the “national title” games, with three of those losses occurring due to SEC vs. SEC matchups in 2011, 2017 and 2021. SEC has played in 20 out of 24 national title games, which is an 83.33% rate of being in the biggest game of the season. That % is ridiculous and can only be compared to Tiger Woods’ winning %, when leading a major golf tournament heading into the fourth round. Even more impressive, is the shear number of teams that have caused that success rate (Tennessee, LSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia). Bulldogs are currently at the top of the SEC mountain, which is almost harder to win than a national title. Final score tonight might indicate that fact as well.
The national media has focused on the Bulldogs mission to be repeat national champions for 2021-2022. Repeat champions have happened nine times before: Minnesota (1940-1941), Army (1944-1945), Notre Dame (1946-1947), Oklahoma (1955-1956), Alabama (1964-1965), Nebraska (1970-1971), Alabama (1978-1979), Nebraska (1994-1995), and Alabama (2011-2012). That boils down to six programs that Georgia is trying to join in this elite club. If the Bulldogs take care of business tonight, Crimson Tide fans will remind the Georgia fanbase that they are only scratching the surface on how to repeat (three times vs. one time). Sounds almost like the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees debate over World Series titles.
Game Prediction
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Georgia is my pick. I like reading the information on each team. Fairness given to each team.
Impressive performance by Georgia to repeat as national champions. Do they have the roster depth and drive to go for a three-peat? Time will tell.